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Favourable labour market conditions and robust income growth strengthened demand for non-life insurance in 2018. In contrast, life insurance continued to suffer from low interest rates and the high liquidity preference of private households. With premiums growing by 5 percent, non-life and accident insurance exceeded expectations by far, and private health insurance continued its stable growth path with +4.2 percent. The premium volume in life insurance, on the other hand, prolonged its decline at –3.7 percent. In comparison with the nominal gross domestic product, the premium volume of the entire private insurance sector developed modestly; insurance penetration in Austria fell to 4.5 percent of GDP and it is thus far below the European average of 7.6 percent. Current WIFO surveys show that this trend will continue – at a lesser pace – over the next two years. For the first time, the long phase of low yields on fixed-interest securities caused visible losses in the revenue from capital investments. In total, the financial result was about one tenth lower than in the previous year.

The global cool-down is likely to bottom out gradually. In the USA and the euro area, economic growth in the third quarter was similarly strong as in the previous quarter. Sentiment did not deteriorate further in these countries recently. Economic momentum in Austria has also remained intact to date, with the business activity continuing to grow by 0.2 percent in the third quarter. In the manufacturing sector, however, value added declined. Companies' assessments of the economy have recently stabilised somewhat, although expectations remain sceptical in the manufacturing sector. The recovery on the labour market has slowed since the beginning of the year. Inflation continues to ease.

In 2019, Austrian construction activity rose with growth rates above 2 percent. Nevertheless, 2019 marks already the first year of a more moderate development. WIFO forecasts expect only a slow increase of construction volumes over the entire period from 2020 to 2022. Importantly, housing will lose its momentum and grow by roughly 1 percent over the next years. However, even if growth will slow down significantly, the housing rate of around 6 building permits per 1,000 inhabitants will remain one of the highest in Europe. Civil engineering exhibits the most promising outlook, primarily because transport infrastructure plans suggest higher investments in the Austrian rail and road network.

The latest European construction market forecasts – presented at the 88th Euroconstruct conference – show only weak construction growth over the period 2020 to 2022. Regional differences remain strong: while Eastern European countries continue their expansion, countries like Finland and Germany have peaked already and expect negative rates in the future. In France, Sweden and Switzerland, the construction market is forecasted to stagnate over the next years. The Euroconstruct Country Report provides detailed information about the construction market trends and its fundamentals in each of the 19 Euroconstruct member countries until 2022. The forecasts and analyses are presented on the country level and are based on a comparable harmonised dataset for the major construction sectors and indicators. The macroeconomic framework conditions are included additionally. – With contributions by Anders Bjerre, Christian Brander, Paul Donadieu de Lavit, Ludwig Dorffmeister, Antonio Coimbra, Josep Ramon Fontana, David Frič, Anne Kathrin Funk, Anna Gáspár, Paul Groot, Annette Hughes, Radovan Kostelník, Nathalie Kouassi, Michael Klien, Vladimir Lenko, Sonya Patel, Jean-Pierre Liebaert, Nejra Macic, Pascal Marlier, Renaud Muller, Valentin, Nicaise, Mattias Pettersson, Markku Riihimäki, Radislav Semenov, Mariusz Sochacki, Antonella Stemperini, Michael Weingärtler.

European construction market growth is expected to slowdown in 2019 and it will stay at lower rates until 2022. Due to weakening (new) residential construction, especially the building sector will grow only marginally over the next years. Moreover, the expected economic dampening will negatively affect several segments of non-residential construction. On the upside, increased infrastructure needs and improved public sector finances support civil engineering, especially in the area of transport infrastructure. Detailed results and forecasts were presented to a professional audience at the 88th Euroconstruct conference in Warsaw, November 2019. The Euroconstruct Summary Report provides a macroeconomic analysis and an overview of the European construction industry by sectors (housing, non-residential construction and civil engineering; split in new and renovation, respectively) up to 2022. – With contributions by Josep R. Fontana, Radovan Kostelník, Vladimír Lenko, Dominika Odoszewska, Sonya Patel, Mariusz Sochacki.

This paper provides new insight into the firm-level employment impacts of trade cost changes at the industry level in the Austrian services sector. We apply a two-part model of firm survival (exit) and firm growth. Separate regressions for firm entry rates at the industry-region level complete the picture of total trade-induced net job creation. We implement the trade cost measure introduced by Chen and Novy (2011) and base it on own estimates of industry specific substitution elasticities. Falling trade costs in the Austrian services sector over the period 2000 to 2014 resulted in net job creation of about 19,000 jobs accounting for 9.5 percent of overall job flows in the sector. The smallest and least productive firms contract while large and productive firms expand as predicted by theory. Most adjustments occur at the extensive margin due to changes in the probability of firm survival.

Demographic projections foresee a pronounced population ageing process in the coming decades. The associated changes in quantity and quality of labour will have an impact on the long-term economic outlook. This study discusses economic implications of current demographic projections for a set of large industrialised economies, which include the largest EU member countries, the USA and Japan, as well as Austria as an example of a small open economy. The focus of the study is the interplay between demographic and technological trends. The study extends the methodology of the European Commission's Ageing Report by considering the effects of size and composition of the working-age population on the productivity growth and productivity effect of the ICT intensity as a measure of directed technological change.

Die Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Dezember 2019 zeigen eine weitere Eintrübung der Konjunktureinschätzungen der österreichischen Unternehmen. Zwischen den Sektoren bestehen aber nach wie vor große Unterschiede: Während die Konjunktureinschätzungen der Unternehmen in den Dienstleistungsbranchen und im Bauwesen trotz leichter Rückgänge weiterhin zuversichtlich ausfallen, sind die Unternehmen in der Sachgütererzeugung wenig zuversichtlich.