Prognose für 1990 und 1991. Hochkonjunktur mit wachsendem Leistungsbilanzüberschuß (Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Cyclical Boom Accompanied by Rising Current Account Surplus)
Österreichs Wirtschaft bieten sich in den nächsten 18 Monaten sehr günstige Konjunkturaussichten. Nachfrage und Produktion
werden mit einer Jahresrate von mehr als 4% wachsen, die Kapazitäten somit noch besser ausgelastet sein. Spannungen, die nach
Jahren anhaltender Hochkonjunktur im allgemeinen auftreten, zeichnen sich dennoch kaum ab. Der Preisauftrieb wird sich nur
wenig beschleunigen, die Leistungsbilanz sogar zu wachsenden Überschüssen tendieren. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen wird freilich
noch steigen, obwohl überraschend viele neue Arbeitsplätze geschaffen werden.
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Economic Outlook for 1990 and 1991: Cyclical Boom Accompanied by Rising Current Account Surplus
The short-term outlook for the Austrian economy is very favourable. Demand and output are expected to grow by more than 4
percent annual rate over the next 18 months, faster than productive capacities. Strains typically associated with a sustained
boom period are however unlikely to emerge. Inflation will accelerate only little, and the current account will move into
surplus for the whole of 1990, improving further in 1991. The number of jobs being created is remarkably high and yet, unemployment
will continue to rise. From the previous forecast last March growth of real GDP is revised upwards by 1 percentage point each
– to 4½ percent for 1990 and 4 percent for 1991. The revision starts from a higher base as activity proved surprisingly buoyant
in the first quarter of 1990 moving to a year-to-year increase by more than 5 percent. A new and self-sustained upswing has
come under way, in which manufacturing industry plays a key role. Output will rise by about 8 percent this year and firms
envisage an increase of their investment expenditure by no less than 30 percent. The optimism of entrepreneurs is matched
by that of consumers. Purchases of durables went up by 15 percent in the first quarter and total consumption will rise by
4¼ percent in 1990, the highest rate in seven years. Despite the rebound in domestic demand the current account will improve
by some AS 5 billion both this year and next, yielding a surplus in the order of AS 10 billion in 1991. The positive trend
is brought about by favourable terms of trade and steadily rising net receipts from foreign travel.