Following a period of sluggish activity from 2012 to 2015 (+0.5 percent p.a.), the Austrian economy is expected to grow moderately
at an annual average of 1.5 percent over the next five years. Investment will lack momentum, and the external contribution
to GDP growth will be smaller than prior to the financial market crisis and the recession. Private consumption, receiving
stimulus from higher disposable income as a result of the income tax reform, is projected to gain 1.3 percent p.a. from 2016
to 2020, after +0.5 percent p.a. between 2011 and 2015. While the pace of economic growth will allow the number of jobs to
increase by an average 1 percent p.a. over the forecast horizon, unemployment will nevertheless keep rising until 2018, due
to the growth of labour supply (domestic and foreign) outpacing demand. The unemployment rate will peak at 9.9 percent of
the dependent labour force (national definition), before abating to 9.4 percent towards the end of the forecast period. Inflation
pressure stays low over the medium term, at an annual rate of 1.8 percent, and its differential vis-à-vis the euro area is
expected to narrow. On the basis of the underlying assumptions on the profile of the business cycle and the policy settings,
a balanced government budget (both in nominal/Maastricht and in structural terms) will only be reached at the end of the projection
period.
Keywords:Medium-term forecast, public finance, Austria
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen