The Austrian economy is set to expand by 0.7 percent in 2003, significantly below the long-term trend for the third consecutive
year. However, unlike in 2001 and 2002, growth is sustained this year by domestic demand. Private consumption and trade volumes
have picked up somewhat, as has investment in construction and business equipment. Prospects for 2004 continue to be highly
uncertain. If the nascent optimism suggested by business and consumer surveys in Europe became confirmed by a recovery in
output, a moderate cyclical upturn should come under way. Austria's GDP should then grow by 1.4 percent in volume. Over the
whole projection period, growth will not be strong enough as to lead to a turnaround on the labour market. The rate of unemployment
will increase slightly to 7.1 percent of the dependent labour force. The general government balance will in both years register
a deficit corresponding to about 1 percent of GDP. Price stability is set to remain high, with an inflation rate around 1¼
percent.
Keywords:Economic Outlook; Austria
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen