Die Errichtung der Wirtschafts- und Währungsintegration ist ein entscheidender Integrationsschritt der Europäischen Union.
Die damit verbundene Einführung des Euro ist mit Kosten verbunden, bringt allerdings auch Kostenentlastungen. Die Einführung
des Euro als Bargeld belastet in der gegenwärtigen Umstellungsphase insbesondere den Handel. Die Beschleunigung der Inflation
seit dem Jahr 2000 fiel in die Zeit der Vorbereitungen zur Bargeldumstellung. Dieser Umstand ließ Befürchtungen laut werden,
dass die relativ hohe Teuerungsrate ein Effekt der bevorstehenden Währungsumstellung sei. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht
auf Basis der bis zum Herbst vorliegenden Daten, wieweit die Teuerungsrate jenem Rahmen entspricht, der durch den weltwirtschaftlichen
Hintergrund vorgegeben wird. Vergleiche der Entwicklung der Preise einzelner Warengruppen zwischen Österreich, Deutschland
und der Schweiz ergänzen die Untersuchung.
Keywords:Preisentwicklung und die Einführung des Euro; Prices and the Launch of the Euro
Forschungsbereich:Arbeitsmarktökonomie, Einkommen und soziale Sicherheit
Sprache:Deutsch
Prices and the Launch of the Euro
Preparations for introducing the euro as a cash currency were taken in a period of relatively high inflation rates, and people
were worried that the new currency would be used to raise prices. A preliminary assessment of the extent to which the euro
launch affects price levels, however, found no indications that the change from schilling to euro had triggered a wave of
price increases. The fact that inflation accelerated in the euro zone in general and Austria in particular since late 1999
is due mainly to external factors. The hefty increase of prices for raw materials (crude oil) and the loss of value experienced
by the euro (and thus the schilling) vis-à-vis the dollar both impact on the inflation rate at the consumer level via import
prices, at first directly by a substantial rise in energy prices and then, after some delay, through higher costs incurred
by domestic processors of raw materials by higher prices for goods and services (manufactured goods and transport services
such as coach trips and flights). Higher food prices, as found in all the EU countries, also contributed their share to the
rising inflation rate. Fruits and vegetables grew more expensive as a result of bad harvests, the price of meat went up in
consequence of current agricultural problems (BSE crisis, F&M); and even the range of dairy products appears to have been
affected. The current rise in inflation thus stays within the frame expected from the rise in raw material prices, the weak
euro, the limited supply on agricultural markets and the increase in wage costs. The fear that the new currency could lead
to higher prices concerns mostly goods and services which are typically priced at (psychological) threshold levels. The most
sensitive sectors to be affected are food and daily consumer goods. Yet these constitute much less than half the items included
in the consumer price index basket (weighed by expenditure shares). An analysis of prices for food, for meals and beverages
in restaurants and cafés and for industrial goods found no extreme price increases on average, even though individual items
may well have become more expensive. This finding is confirmed by detailed comparisons of price developments in Austria, Germany
and Switzerland. Obviously there are some deviations between the three countries in some product groups. Yet in general, the
deviations cancel each other out, and the price development in Austria is quite similar to that in Germany and Switzerland.
For areas where differences were pinpointed, they have been observed for more than a year; this suggests that the differences
are due to other factors than the change in currency.