Das WIFO verfügt mit seinem Makromodell und dem angekoppelten Input-Output-Modell über einen in sich konsistenten Ansatz für
Sektorprognosen. In die vor einem Jahr fertiggestellte erste Ausbaustufe wurde die inzwischen vorliegende Datenbasis der offiziellen
Input-Output-Tabelle 1983 eingearbeitet; die Struktur der technischen Koeffizienten bleibt nun nicht konstant, sondern wurde
dynamisiert, und die Struktur der Endnachfrage wird ökonometrisch modelliert. Das Modell ermöglicht die Erstellung mittelfristiger
Prognosen für Output und Beschäftigung von 19 Sektoren der österreichischen Wirtschaft, die mit der gesamtwirtschaftlichen
Prognose voll konsistent sind. Das WIFO verwendet den Ansatz auch zur Analyse der Betroffenheit einzelner Sektoren von wirtschaftspolitischen
Maßnahmen oder "Schocks".
Keywords:Das WIFO-Modell für die österreichischen Wirtschaftssektoren; The WIFO Model for Medium-term Sectoral Forecasts
Forschungsbereich:Klima-, Umwelt- und Ressourcenökonomie
Sprache:Deutsch
The WIFO Model for Medium-term Sectoral Forecasts
This paper presents the results of the second stage in building a model for sectoral forecasts, an input-output model (I-O
Model) that is fully compatible with the WIFO Macro Model. The first stage was completed one year ago, and the following changes
were then implemented: the data base of the official I-O Table 1983, that has since become available was incorporated into
the sectoral model; the structure of the technical coefficients was dynamized; the structure of final demand was modeled econometrically.
The old I-O Model was based on the preliminary I-O Table of 1988. The official Input-Output Table of 1983, that has become
available last year, is a detailed representation of Austria's economic structure; it has served as a basis for dynamizing
the interdependence between intermediary inputs. More recent statistical information regarding changes in demand for intermediary
inputs was used to adjust the economic structure. For forecasting purposes, the development during the period 1983-1992 was
extrapolated, with growth rates assumed to decline. Econometric modeling techniques were applied to imports, private consumption,
and exports at a disaggregated level. Single equations were estimated for imports at a level of disaggregation that corresponds
to the 19 categories of goods used in the I-O Model. For private consumption, a system of equations of the type "Almost Ideal
Demand System" (AIDS) was estimated. For imports as well as for consumer demand, error correction mechanisms were specified.
These specifications allow short-term effects to differ from long-term effects. Single equations at the two-digit level of
the Austrian industrial classification system (altogether 50 positions) were estimated. Given the lack of detailed official
price statistics in foreign trade, this work required the computation of price indices for all foreign trade flows. Investment
and public consumption were extrapolated by means of largely fixed coefficients in the commodity structure. Equations modeling
labor productivity, with different trends for technical progress, provide the link to sectoral employment. This model allows
medium-term forecasts on output and employment for 19 sectors of the Austrian economy, fully consistent with the macroeconomic
forecasts. The model can also be used to analyze the impact of economic policy measures or of shocks on individual sectors.