WIFO Working Papers
Diskussionspapiere von Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeitern, Konsulenten und Gästen des WIFO Seit 2006 ausschließlich
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Aktuelle Ausgaben (580 Treffer)
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (580), 20 Seiten
Online seit: 16.04.2019 0:00
Projections show sharp increases in public spending on long-term care services across Europe. However, a purely cost based
focus on long-term care services is economically misleading. Private and public expenditure on long-term care services directly
and indirectly generate income in the form of salaries, taxes and social security contributions. The aim of this paper is
to quantify the economic impact and multipliers of long-term care services for the first time. Based on an econometric regional
input-output model for Austria, we estimate the direct, indirect and induced effects of public and private expenditures on
value added, employment, taxes and social security contributions. According to our results, each Euro spent on long-term care
services is associated with domestic value added of 1.7 € as well as 0.70 € in taxes and social security contributions. The
economic multipliers of the long-term care services are comparatively high due to the high share of wages and salaries in
direct expenditure and the associated high direct value added. Public expenditure on professional care services should therefore
not be regarded merely as a cost factor in the public budget. Rather, this rapidly growing economic sector is also an increasingly
important economic factor in a time of ageing societies.
Benjamin Bittschi, Ines Fortin, Sebastian Koch, Richard Sellner, Simon Loretz
, Gregor Zwirn
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (579), 97 Seiten
Online seit: 11.04.2019 0:00
The study estimates the tax revenue effects of changes in alcohol excise taxes for Spain, France and Poland. In addition to
excise tax and VAT revenue effects, the price pass-through and the impact on market volumes is estimated. The main parameters
– the tax pass-through rate of excise duties to consumer prices and the price elasticities of demand for alcoholic beverages
– are estimated via state-of-the-art econometric approaches based a combination of household-levels and macro data. In a first
step, the literature survey finds very diverse estimates for price elasticities of alcoholic beverages. We find evidence that
excise taxes are typically fully passed onto consumer prices. Using micro data at the household level, we find price elasticities
of demand for Spain, France and Poland which are higher (in absolute terms) than those typically found in the literature.
This implies that price increases lead to larger drops in sales volume and, thus, tax increases might not result in the expected
additional tax revenues. A macro level estimation of the relation between excise tax rates and revenues confirms a Laffer-curve
type relationship, i.e., tax revenues cease to increase if excise tax rates reach a certain threshold level. The empirical
evidence in this study suggests that the tax rates for beer and wine are well below this revenue maximising saddle point,
but the evidence is inconclusive for spirits in the countries in question. Using the simulation tool developed in this study,
it is found that a 1 percent increase in the excise tax rates of each alcoholic beverage prevailing in 2017 in each of the
countries will have the strongest negative effect on the market volumes of spirits, while for beer and wine these increases
translate to by and large higher collected tax revenues. Noteworthily, in some scenarios excise tax increases result in decreases
in VAT revenues due to a significant reduction in the higher value on-trade sales.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (578), 84 Seiten
Online seit: 29.03.2019 0:00
The design of tax systems has a considerable impact on the distribution of income and wealth at the household and the individual
level, and due to gender-differentiated socio-economic conditions also in a gender perspective. One of the most important
areas of taxation is the taxation of personal incomes. Besides the level of income tax rates and the design of the income
tax schedule (progressive versus flat tax schedule), the system of household taxation (joint versus individual taxation),
the determination of taxable income and the design of tax exemptions (tax allowances versus credits), particularly child-related
ones, are crucial determinants of the distributional effects and work incentives of the personal income tax. The study presents
an overview of the microsimulation results for selected provisions of the personal income tax system on income distribution
and work incentives. The microsimulations are based on EUROMOD for six selected EU countries: Germany, Austria, Spain, Czech
Republic, UK, and Sweden, countries of different "families" of welfare and taxation traditions.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (577), 11 Seiten
Online seit: 27.03.2019 0:00
We test whether intellectual property rights foster or hinder innovation by estimating IV structural equations for a large
sample of Swiss firms. We find that better appropriability conditions at the industry level raise the number of competitors.
However, conditional on the given industry structure, individual firms face fewer competitors, if they actually use intellectual
property rights. The further impact of fewer competitors is to raise R&D, when initial competition is strong, but to reduce
it, when initial competition is weak ("inverted U").
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (576), 54 Seiten
Online seit: 24.01.2019 0:00
We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain
or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation
errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct measure of economic uncertainty has a decent contemporaneous correlation
with various indirect measures, its informational content is though different. Across all uncertainty measures, shocks to
uncertainty trigger effects in GDP of opposite sign, however, the indirect measures tend to significantly underestimate the
effects on GDP and other macroeconomic aggregates.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (575), 28 Seiten
Online seit: 11.01.2019 0:00
Two major international frameworks provide landmarks for future development paths: the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
and the Paris Climate Agreement. Monitoring the progress towards achieving the individual goals has to consider a multitude
of synergies and trade-offs. In this paper we use composite indices to analyse climate and energy policy in Austria and other
selected EU countries. The analysis delivers several results which are also supported by the assessment of climate and energy
policies in the case study countries. In general, the improvements regarding energy efficiency, emissions and deployment of
renewables have been moderate in the period under observation. This hints at the time needed for restructuring to take place.
This underlines the importance of credible political commitment to climate targets, the implementation of ambitious instruments
and the need for stability in the guiding frameworks in order to effectuate substantial changes. In addition, the description
of the circumstances and policy frameworks in the selected countries shows, that each one is characterised by a very specific
energy system (complemented by specific social structures) which determines the challenges that have to be overcome on the
way to decarbonisation.
WIFO Working Papers, 2018, (574), 34 Seiten
Online seit: 20.12.2018 0:00
We show that firms' credit market experience determines their perception of aggregate bank lending policy using panel data
from the Austrian Business Survey between 2011 and 2016. Loan rejections have a strongly negative and persistent effect on
perceptions. Interestingly, firms that receive a loan at worse than anticipated conditions show a similarly negative effect.
Firms that do not need a loan tend to perceive lending policy as neutral and revise their perceptions less often. Our findings
are in line with theories on sticky information, rational inattention and pessimism bias and suggest considering experience
for the aggregation of perceptions.
WIFO Working Papers, 2018, (573), 30 Seiten
Online seit: 13.12.2018 0:00
Both the UN SDGs and the Paris Agreement imply ambitious long-term targets which only can be met with a fundamental restructuring
of economic and social systems. We propose a set of energy and climate policy indicators that allows informed policy making
and goes beyond the approaches that mainly focus on progress based on the UN indicator set. The sustainable energy indicators
cover the whole energy system as well as the three dimensions of sustainability. The approach combines an energy service centred
perspective with research on energy and climate indicators and embeds the indicator framework in broader socio-ecologic context.
For the four demand-side sectors a set of 118 high-level energy indicators has been assembled that can be further disaggregated
to about 387 indicators. For electricity and heat supply a set of 25 energy indicators has been compiled that can be further
disaggregated to about 130 indicators differentiating by energy source and plant type. Interactions (i.e., synergies and conflicts)
between the different target dimensions and the corresponding indicators need to be carefully considered. Given the complexity
of the issue and the lack of adequate indicators and gaps in data availability it is difficult to interpret certain observable
trends. This needs to be kept in mind when using the indicator system for policy analysis.
WIFO Working Papers, 2018, (572), 33 Seiten
Online seit: 15.11.2018 0:00
The EU Single Market and the Maastricht Treaty are now aged 25. In this short history many events marked the way: the creation
of EMU in 1999, the introduction of the euro in 2002, and the great EU enlargement starting in 2004. And lastly – for the
first time – with the Brexit a reverse of the process of European integration takes place. The recession of 2009 and the Euro
crisis in 2010 led to a setback in the economic development in the EU. A quarter of a century invites to look back about the
achievements. How much trade and economic growth could be created by the Single Market plus euro plus EU enlargement? These
questions are treated here with the help of a consistent integration model. Embedded into an endogenous growth model approach
growth and trade effects for EU and EFTA countries are estimated. It turns out that (taking also into account GATT liberalisation)
the European integration added to per-capita GDP 0.5 percentage point to EU 28 countries but only 0.2 percentage point to
EFTA countries. Trade openness increased by 0.9 percentage point of GDP in EU 28 and by 0.3 percentage point in EFTA countries.
WIFO Working Papers, 2018, (571), 30 Seiten
Online seit: 02.11.2018 0:00
This essay reconsiders the interaction between the development of economic theories and economic reality since the 1920ies.
I begin with the systemic cause of the financial crisis, the coincidence of three "bear markets" (stocks, real estate, commodities)
which followed three parallel "bull markets". I then sketch the macroeconomic effects of the "manic-depressive" fluctuations
of asset prices and show how they paved the road into the present crisis. As next step, I explain how "bulls" and "bears"
are brought about. Then I sketch how the treatment of financial markets in economic theory and policy has shaped the long
cycle from the financial boom of the 1920ies, the Great Depression, the post-war prosperity under "realcapitalistic" framework
conditions to the "finance-capitalistic" regime since the 1970ies. The paper concludes with proposals how Europe could find
roads to new prosperity. After the upcoming financial crisis there will be a window of opportunity to implement these proposals.