WIFO Bulletin

Das WIFO Bulletin ist eine reine Online-Publikation in englischer Sprache mit den Schwerpunkten

  • Prognosen für Österreich und andere Länder,
  • Konjunkturberichterstattung,
  • Analysen zur europäischen Integration.

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Die Artikel des Vorgängers "Austrian Economic Quarterly" finden Sie hier: Austrian Economic Quarterly

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WIFO Bulletin (110 Treffer)

WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(7), S.57-63
Online seit: 29.08.2019 0:00
In the USA and the euro area, the economy grew more strongly than most recently in the first quarter of 2019. Some indicators continue to point to a slowdown. However, the economy appears to have stabilised somewhat again. In Austria, on the other hand, growth weakened again somewhat in the first quarter. Manufacturing in particular is suffering from the global economic downturn, while the domestic economy is developing robustly. The recovery on the labour market is gradually flattening out. Inflation remains moderate.
The global economy reached its business cycle peak in 2018 and growth is likely to slow in the coming years. Over the forecast period 2019-2023, the Austrian economy is expected to grow by 1.6 percent p.a. (2014-2018 +1.8 percent p.a.), slightly stronger than the euro area average. The income tax relief for private households granted by the family bonus will support consumer demand in 2019 and especially in 2020. Over the forecast period, private consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.6 percent (2014-2018 +1.0 percent p.a.). Employment will expand faster than labour supply up to 2020 as a result of the economic conditions and the unemployment rate will remain at 7.3 percent. However, from 2021 labour supply will again grow faster than demand, so that the unemployment rate will rise to 7.5 percent by the end of the forecasting period. Inflationary pressure will remain moderate in the medium term, and the positive inflation differential with the euro area should continue to narrow, but not reverse. WIFO expects an average consumer price inflation rate of 1.8 percent p.a. Based on the projected economic outlook and the assumed economic policy conditions, the overall fiscal balance will remain positive over the forecasting period and even improve slightly. As a result, the public debt ratio (general government debt as a percentage of nominal GDP) will fall by around 17½ percentage points as compared with 2018 to below 57 percent by 2023.
Following a slowdown in the global economic momentum over the previous year, world GDP expanded moderately in the first quarter of 2019. In line with this, domestic export growth weakened slightly. The domestic demand is supporting the Aus-trian economic activity. GDP in Austria rose by 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2019 compared with the previous quarter.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(4), S.28-39
Online seit: 07.05.2019 0:00
Under the impact of sluggish global trade, industrial activity in Austria has moved to a downward trend. On major export markets, demand for Austrian manufactures nevertheless proves resilient (USA, CEEC). The temporary setback in German motor car production and its repercussions on Austrian suppliers are gradually subsiding, and the USA-China trade conflict has eased. Moreover, continued solid demand for services helps sustain overall economic activity. Annual average GDP growth in Austria is expected to slow from 2.7 percent in 2018 to 1.7 percent in 2019; from the middle of the year, demand and output are set to stabilise, with growth in 2020 staying around 1.8 percent.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(3), S.21-27
Online seit: 26.03.2019 17:00
The assessment of future economic development by Austrian industrial companies did not deteriorate further in February, optimistic and pessimistic assessments now almost balance each other out. Against the backdrop of weak world trade, there are also positive economic signals: in Germany, the situation in the automotive sector appears to be stabilising and the trade conflict between China and the USA is easing.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(2), S.14-20
Online seit: 26.03.2019 17:00
The trade conflict between the USA and China is increasingly weighing on the global economy. In the USA, the government shutdown dampened the optimism of private households. The German economy is still suffering from the upheavals in the automotive sector. The Austrian economy is proving to be robust in view of the global burdens. Here as well, however, the majority of indicators point to a downturn.
WIFO Bulletin, 2019, 24(1), S.1-13
Online seit: 26.03.2019 17:00
From the current strong pace driven by industrial output, construction and services, economic growth in Austria is set to ease somewhat in 2019. While business investment is showing early signs of weakening, private household income and consumption will benefit from solid wage increases and a lower tax burden. With fewer jobs being created, the reduction of unemployment will lose momentum. The general government balance will turn to a surplus in the years to come.
The Austrian economy is in an advanced state of a boom. Labour market tightness is reaching a new high, solid income growth is supporting private consumption, and industrial activity is cooling in line with the global economy.
The world economy is likely to have reached a cyclical peak in 2018. A gradual downturn is expected over the next years. Over the forecast period 2019-2023, Austria's economy is projected to grow at an annual average of 1.7 percent, slightly down from the 1.9 percent for the period 2014-2018, but exceeding the euro area average by about ¼ percentage point. Private household incomes will benefit from the introduction of a "Familienbonus" (family bonus: income tax relief for house-holds with children), which should support consumer demand mainly in 2019 and 2020. Over the entire forecast horizon, pri-vate consumption is expected to increase by 1.7 percent on annual average, after +1.1 percent p.a. 2014-2018. Thanks to benign cyclical conditions, the creation of new jobs will outpace labour supply growth until 2020, taking the unemployment rate down to 7.2 percent. Thereafter, the labour force may again expand faster than labour demand, with the unemploy-ment rate edging up to 7.5 percent by 2023. Inflation pressure is set to stay moderate over the medium term, such that the positive gap of domestic inflation vis-à-vis the euro area should close. The consumer price index is anticipated to rise by an average 2 percent p.a. Under the projected business cycle scenario and the underlying no policy change assumptions, the general government balance should be positive over the entire period. Hence, the public debt ratio (general government debt as a percentage of nominal GDP) should fall from 2018 to 2023 by around 14.5 percentage points to the benchmark value of 60 percent.

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