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Makroökonomie und europäische Wirtschaftspolitik

Bücher, Buchbeiträge, Journals und Papers (854 Treffer)

We propose a modelling approach based on a set of small-scale factor models linked together in a cluster with linkages derived from Granger causality tests. GDP forecasts are produced using a disaggregated approach across production, expenditure and income accounts. The method combines the advantages of large structural macroeconomic models and small factor models, making our cluster of dynamic factor models (CDFM) useful for large-scale model-consistent forecasting. The CDFM has a simple structure, and its forecasts outperform those of a variety of competing models and professional forecasters. In addition, the CDFM allows forecasters to use their own judgment to produce conditional forecasts.
German Economic Review, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0025
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Rechenzentrum
We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations. Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of respondents directly.
Christoph Badelt
in: Hagen Krämer, Johannes Schmidt, Wirtschaftspolitische Beratung in der Krise
Buchbeiträge, Metropolis, Marburg, Februar 2021, S.77-92
Metroeconomica, 2021, 72(2), S.405-424, https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12326
Computational Management Science, 2021, 18(4), S.563-589
Buchbeiträge, Bundesministerium für Landesverteidigung, Wien, 2021, S.274-279
Die wirtschaftliche und finanzpolitische Entwicklung in der Europäischen Union wird auch in den nächsten Jahren durch die COVID-19-Krise geprägt sein. Die EU erfährt die schwerste Rezession ihrer Geschichte, die Wertschöpfung wird auch 2022 das Vorkrisenniveau noch nicht erreicht haben. Die umfangreichen staatlichen Hilfsmaßnahmen begrenzen den Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit, erhöhen aber Defizite und Verschuldung auf Rekordniveau. Die EU ist 2021 mit einer Reihe von Herausforderungen konfrontiert. Diese stehen einerseits im Zusammenhang mit der gesundheits- und wirtschaftspolitischen Bekämpfung der COVID-19-Pandemie. Andererseits sind die Maßnahmen zu forcieren, die zur Umsetzung des europäischen "Green Deal" und zur Erreichung des jüngst verschärften Klimazieles der EU, die CO2-Emissionen in der EU bis 2030 um 55% zu reduzieren, erforderlich sind.
in: Simon Ebner, Alois Halbmayr, Josef P. Mautner, Perspektiven für eine lebenswerte Gesellschaft
Margit Schratzenstaller, Alexander Krenek
in: Brigid Laffan, Alfredo de Feo, EU financing for next decade. MFF 2021-2027 and next generation EU
Buchbeiträge, European University Institute, Florence, November 2020, S.307-322, https://doi.org/10.2870/712581
Herausgeber: Europäisches Hochschulinstitut
The current system of own resources to finance the EU budget does not contribute to the overarching goal of sustainable growth and development in the EU. Therefore, the current own resources, which primarily consist of contributions by Member States, should be partially replaced by sustainability-oriented own resources. Such a reform would create space for Member States to reduce their tax burdens (particularly high taxes on labour) in a supranational sustainability-enhancing tax shift. Candidate resources are taxes or levies that cannot be effectively enforced at the Member State level due to tax competition and avoidance and/or cross-border externalities, and that contribute to central European strategies and policies. A basket solution would be preferable, consisting of "green" and other innovative own resources, so that potential negative effects on individual countries could be cancelled out to some degree. We analyse several options for sustainability-oriented own resources and provide estimates of their potential revenues. These options include various green own resources (a carbon-based flight ticket tax, a border carbon adjustment for the EU emission trading system and a surcharge on national fuel taxes) particularly addressing environmental problems, and other candidates which could contribute to further dimensions of sustainability (a financial transactions tax, a net wealth tax and a CCCTB-based own resource). We also discuss the candidates for innovative own resources suggested by the European Commission in its proposals for the next 2021-2027 MFF, namely a plastic-based contribution, a share in revenue from auctioning emission trading certificates and a CCCTB-based own resource. Based on a summary evaluation considering a number of sustainability criteria relevant to the assessment of own resources, we find that all the options considered are in principle well-suited candidates, while none can be identified as the "perfect" candidate. We also analyse the legal basis of the various candidates for sustainability-oriented own resources and find that almost all the candidates could be introduced within the existing legal framework so that no Treaty changes would be required.
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