We propose a modelling approach based on a set of small-scale factor models linked together in a cluster with linkages derived
from Granger causality tests. GDP forecasts are produced using a disaggregated approach across production, expenditure and
income accounts. The method combines the advantages of large structural macroeconomic models and small factor models, making
our cluster of dynamic factor models (CDFM) useful for large-scale model-consistent forecasting. The CDFM has a simple structure,
and its forecasts outperform those of a variety of competing models and professional forecasters. In addition, the CDFM allows
forecasters to use their own judgment to produce conditional forecasts.
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Rechenzentrum
We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative
question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and
changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly
used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations.
Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the
feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of
Buchbeiträge, Bundesministerium für Landesverteidigung, Wien, 2021, S.274-279
Die wirtschaftliche und finanzpolitische Entwicklung in der Europäischen Union wird auch in den nächsten Jahren durch die
COVID-19-Krise geprägt sein. Die EU erfährt die schwerste Rezession ihrer Geschichte, die Wertschöpfung wird auch 2022 das
Vorkrisenniveau noch nicht erreicht haben. Die umfangreichen staatlichen Hilfsmaßnahmen begrenzen den Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit,
erhöhen aber Defizite und Verschuldung auf Rekordniveau. Die EU ist 2021 mit einer Reihe von Herausforderungen konfrontiert.
Diese stehen einerseits im Zusammenhang mit der gesundheits- und wirtschaftspolitischen Bekämpfung der COVID-19-Pandemie.
Andererseits sind die Maßnahmen zu forcieren, die zur Umsetzung des europäischen "Green Deal" und zur Erreichung des jüngst
verschärften Klimazieles der EU, die CO2-Emissionen in der EU bis 2030 um 55% zu reduzieren, erforderlich sind.
The current system of own resources to finance the EU budget does not contribute to the overarching goal of sustainable growth
and development in the EU. Therefore, the current own resources, which primarily consist of contributions by Member States,
should be partially replaced by sustainability-oriented own resources. Such a reform would create space for Member States
to reduce their tax burdens (particularly high taxes on labour) in a supranational sustainability-enhancing tax shift. Candidate
resources are taxes or levies that cannot be effectively enforced at the Member State level due to tax competition and avoidance
and/or cross-border externalities, and that contribute to central European strategies and policies. A basket solution would
be preferable, consisting of "green" and other innovative own resources, so that potential negative effects on individual
countries could be cancelled out to some degree. We analyse several options for sustainability-oriented own resources and
provide estimates of their potential revenues. These options include various green own resources (a carbon-based flight ticket
tax, a border carbon adjustment for the EU emission trading system and a surcharge on national fuel taxes) particularly addressing
environmental problems, and other candidates which could contribute to further dimensions of sustainability (a financial transactions
tax, a net wealth tax and a CCCTB-based own resource). We also discuss the candidates for innovative own resources suggested
by the European Commission in its proposals for the next 2021-2027 MFF, namely a plastic-based contribution, a share in revenue
from auctioning emission trading certificates and a CCCTB-based own resource. Based on a summary evaluation considering a
number of sustainability criteria relevant to the assessment of own resources, we find that all the options considered are
in principle well-suited candidates, while none can be identified as the "perfect" candidate. We also analyse the legal basis
of the various candidates for sustainability-oriented own resources and find that almost all the candidates could be introduced
within the existing legal framework so that no Treaty changes would be required.