{"id":88189,"date":"2024-01-22T09:24:04","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T08:24:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/88189\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T00:22:26","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T23:22:26","slug":"effekte-der-juengsten-erdoelverteuerung","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/88189\/","title":{"rendered":"Effects of the Latest Oil Price Rise"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-88189","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The Gulf crisis has caused new turbulence in the world oil market. Price developments in the near future will essentially depend on whether a military conflict can be avoided or not. Given this uncertainty two scenarios were elaborated: a main version with spot market prices remaining at about the current level of 25 $ per barrel until end 1991 and a conflict version with spot prices rising to 39 $ a barrel for the next six months. In the main scenario still seeming the more likely one for the time being the negative effects on the Austrian economy remain limited. The rise in import prices is damped by the weakness of the dollar, the 1991 average rate of domestic inflation is boosted by a little less than \u00bd percentage point. Growth of real GDP is reduced by \u00bd percentage point and the balance on current account deteriorates by about AS 7 billion. The increase in domestic petrol prices since the end of July has been broadly in line with spot market quotations in Rotterdam; however, in the months before there would have been some scope for price cuts given the decline in import prices since last autumn.","onlinedate":"1990-09-01 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19900901","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":279266,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"63","monthly_report_pages":"511-518","monthly_report_pages_sort":"511","issue":"9","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500,3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[4055,3593,3951,3971,3981],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4055,\"personName\":\"Georg M. Busch\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3593,\"personName\":\"Alois Guger\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3951,\"personName\":\"Karl Musil\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3971,\"personName\":\"Fritz Schebeck\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3981,\"personName\":\"Jan Stankovsky\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Busch, G. M.<\\\/span><span>, Guger, A.<\\\/span><span>, Musil, K.<\\\/span><span>, Schebeck, F.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Stankovsky, J.<\\\/span> (1990). <span>Effekte der j\u00fcngsten Erd\u00f6lverteuerung<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>63<\\\/em>(9), 511-518. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/1084\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/1084<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Busch GM<\\\/span><span>, Guger A<\\\/span><span>, Musil K<\\\/span><span>, Schebeck F<\\\/span><span>, Stankovsky J<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Effekte der j\u00fcngsten Erd\u00f6lverteuerung<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1990 Sept;63(9):511-518.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{93940837181840b5b5366eaca8349744,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Effekte der j{\\\\\\\"u}ngsten Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lverteuerung\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Um der Unsicherheit {\\\\\\\"u}ber die weitere Entwicklung der Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lpreise Rechnung zu tragen, wurden zwei Szenarien erstellt: ein Hauptszenario, in dem der Spotmarktpreis bis Ende 1991 etwa auf dem derzeitigen Niveau von 25 \\\\$ je Barrel verharrt, und ein Krisenszenario mit einem Anstieg auf 39 \\\\$ in den n{\\\\\\\"a}chsten sechs Monaten. Im aus gegenw{\\\\\\\"a}rtiger Sicht wahrscheinlicheren Hauptszenario halten sich die negativen Auswirkungen auf {\\\\\\\"O}sterreichs Wirtschaft in Grenzen. Der Preisauftrieb wird durch die Dollarschw{\\\\\\\"a}che ged{\\\\\\\"a}mpft, die Inflationsrate erh{\\\\\\\"o}ht sich 1991 um knapp \u00bd Prozentpunkt. Das BIP-Wachstum wird um \u00bd Prozentpunkt beeintr{\\\\\\\"a}chtigt und die Leistungsbilanz im Ausma{\\\\ss} von rund 7 Mrd. S belastet. Die Benzinpreiserh{\\\\\\\"o}hungen seit Ende Juli entsprechen ungef{\\\\\\\"a}hr den Notierungen in Rotterdam; vorher h{\\\\\\\"a}tte allerdings aufgrund der seit dem Herbst gesunkenen Importpreise ein Spielraum f{\\\\\\\"u}r Verbilligungen bestanden.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Effekte der j{\\\\\\\"u}ngsten Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lverteuerung; Effects of the Latest Oil Price Rise\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Busch, \\\\{Georg M.\\\\} and Alois Guger and Karl Musil and Fritz Schebeck and Jan Stankovsky\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1990\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = sep,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"63\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"511--518\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Effekte der j\u00fcngsten Erd\u00f6lverteuerung<\\\/p><p>AU  - Busch, Georg M.<\\\/p><p>AU  - Guger, Alois<\\\/p><p>AU  - Musil, Karl<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schebeck, Fritz<\\\/p><p>AU  - Stankovsky, Jan<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1990\\\/9<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1990\\\/9<\\\/p><p>N2  - Um der Unsicherheit \u00fcber die weitere Entwicklung der Erd\u00f6lpreise Rechnung zu tragen, wurden zwei Szenarien erstellt: ein Hauptszenario, in dem der Spotmarktpreis bis Ende 1991 etwa auf dem derzeitigen Niveau von 25 $ je Barrel verharrt, und ein Krisenszenario mit einem Anstieg auf 39 $ in den n\u00e4chsten sechs Monaten. Im aus gegenw\u00e4rtiger Sicht wahrscheinlicheren Hauptszenario halten sich die negativen Auswirkungen auf \u00d6sterreichs Wirtschaft in Grenzen. Der Preisauftrieb wird durch die Dollarschw\u00e4che ged\u00e4mpft, die Inflationsrate erh\u00f6ht sich 1991 um knapp \u00bd Prozentpunkt. Das BIP-Wachstum wird um \u00bd Prozentpunkt beeintr\u00e4chtigt und die Leistungsbilanz im Ausma\u00df von rund 7 Mrd. S belastet. Die Benzinpreiserh\u00f6hungen seit Ende Juli entsprechen ungef\u00e4hr den Notierungen in Rotterdam; vorher h\u00e4tte allerdings aufgrund der seit dem Herbst gesunkenen Importpreise ein Spielraum f\u00fcr Verbilligungen bestanden.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Um der Unsicherheit \u00fcber die weitere Entwicklung der Erd\u00f6lpreise Rechnung zu tragen, wurden zwei Szenarien erstellt: ein Hauptszenario, in dem der Spotmarktpreis bis Ende 1991 etwa auf dem derzeitigen Niveau von 25 $ je Barrel verharrt, und ein Krisenszenario mit einem Anstieg auf 39 $ in den n\u00e4chsten sechs Monaten. Im aus gegenw\u00e4rtiger Sicht wahrscheinlicheren Hauptszenario halten sich die negativen Auswirkungen auf \u00d6sterreichs Wirtschaft in Grenzen. Der Preisauftrieb wird durch die Dollarschw\u00e4che ged\u00e4mpft, die Inflationsrate erh\u00f6ht sich 1991 um knapp \u00bd Prozentpunkt. Das BIP-Wachstum wird um \u00bd Prozentpunkt beeintr\u00e4chtigt und die Leistungsbilanz im Ausma\u00df von rund 7 Mrd. S belastet. Die Benzinpreiserh\u00f6hungen seit Ende Juli entsprechen ungef\u00e4hr den Notierungen in Rotterdam; vorher h\u00e4tte allerdings aufgrund der seit dem Herbst gesunkenen Importpreise ein Spielraum f\u00fcr Verbilligungen bestanden.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Effekte der j\u00fcngsten Erd\u00f6lverteuerung; Effects of the Latest Oil Price Rise<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 63<\\\/p><p>SP  - 511<\\\/p><p>EP  - 518<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Effects of the Latest Oil Price Rise - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/88189\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Effects of the Latest Oil Price Rise\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/88189\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-06T23:22:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/88189\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/88189\\\/\",\"name\":\"Effects of the Latest Oil Price Rise - 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