{"id":85609,"date":"2024-01-22T09:04:42","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T08:04:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/85609\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:55:03","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:55:03","slug":"oesterreichs-wirtschaft-vorbereitet-fuer-die-teilnahme-an-der-wwu-mittelfristige-prognose-der-oesterreichischen-wirtschaft-bis-zum-jahr-2002-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/85609\/","title":{"rendered":"Austrian Economy Prepared for EMU. Medium-term Projection for the Austrian Economy until 2002"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-85609","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"A stronger international competitive position and brisk domestic demand will have a positive impact on the Austrian economy in the next years. Assuming that the international financial crisis will be temporary in its detrimental effect and that the public budget consolidation policy will continue, there are no obstacles to the achievement of stable growth. In 1997-2002, GDP will grow by 2.75 percent p.a. on average, which is slightly above the EU average rate. Growth of the Austrian economy has accelerated since 1996. The dynamic development is likely to be temporarily stayed by the effects of turbulences on the international financial markets. After a slight slowdown in 1999, total economic production will once again expand strongly. As a result of production expansion and measures under the National Action Plan for Employment, some 100,000 additional jobs could be created in the projection period. Unemployment should decline by about 1 percentage point (from 7.2 percent to 6.2 percent of the dependently employed in line with the traditional definition; from 4.4 percent to 3.7 percent in accordance with the EU definition). The external sector will make a positive contribution to growth of 0.25 percent of GDP on average. Improved terms of trade and an upswing of the domestic tourism industry will provide for a noticeable reduction of the current account deficit over the next years. In the projection period domestic demand is supported by strong and steadily growing private consumption (+2 percent p.a. in real terms on average). Consumer confidence has improved. As a consequence of the growth of disposable real income of private households, the personal savings ratio will gradually be returned to its long-term equilibrium value. At an average growth of 4 percent p.a., gross fixed capital formation up to 2002 will rise at double the pace of 1991-1997. Plant and equipment expenditure will develop more dynamically, while building investments will grow moderately as a consequence of the redimensioning process in residential housing construction. Neither import prices nor unit labor cost are expected to make for any upward trend of prices domestically, and sustained competitive pressure effectively restricts price increases, so that prices will remain stable. The average rate of inflation will be 1.25 percent p.a. According to the projection (which does not consider the plans for tax reform), budget consolidation will continue in 2000, after a hiatus in 1999. The deficit will be less than 1.5 percent of GDP, government debt, on the other hand, will not decline below 60 percent of GDP.","onlinedate":"1998-12-01 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19981201","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":276698,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"71","monthly_report_pages":"845-853","monthly_report_pages_sort":"845","issue":"12","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500,3510,3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3971,3522],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3971,\"personName\":\"Fritz Schebeck\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3522,\"personName\":\"Andrea Weber\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schebeck, F.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Weber, A.<\\\/span> (1998). <span>\u00d6sterreichs Wirtschaft vorbereitet f\u00fcr die Teilnahme an der WWU. Mittelfristige Prognose der \u00f6sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis zum Jahr 2002<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>71<\\\/em>(12), 845-853. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/613\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/613<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schebeck F<\\\/span><span>, Weber A<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>\u00d6sterreichs Wirtschaft vorbereitet f\u00fcr die Teilnahme an der WWU. Mittelfristige Prognose der \u00f6sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis zum Jahr 2002<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1998 Dec;71(12):845-853.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{6c55943a698b42fcb253ae1fa9349dc6,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"{\\\\\\\"O}sterreichs Wirtschaft vorbereitet f{\\\\\\\"u}r die Teilnahme an der WWU. Mittelfristige Prognose der {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis zum Jahr 2002\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Im Zeitraum 1997\\\/2002 wird das {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichische Bruttoinlandsprodukt real um durchschnittlich 2\u00be\\\\% pro Jahr zunehmen. Dank der gest{\\\\\\\"a}rkten au{\\\\ss}enwirtschaftlichen Wettbewerbsposition werden sich die Exporte weiterhin dynamisch entwickeln, und die Au{\\\\ss}enwirtschaft d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte einen positiven Beitrag zum Wachstum liefern. Die inl{\\\\\\\"a}ndische Nachfrage wird im Prognosezeitraum vom kr{\\\\\\\"a}ftiger wachsenden privaten Konsum getragen (durchschnittlich +2\\\\% real pro Jahr). Mit der Entwicklung der verf{\\\\\\\"u}gbaren Realeinkommen der privaten Haushalte wird sich die Sparquote wieder ihrem l{\\\\\\\"a}ngerfristigen Gleichgewichtswert n{\\\\\\\"a}hern. Die Bruttoanlageinvestitionen werden bis 2002 etwa doppelt so rasch steigen wie im Zeitraum 1991\\\/1997; die Dynamik geht dabei von den Ausr{\\\\\\\"u}stungsinvestitionen und nicht von den Bauinvestitionen aus. Infolge der Produktionssteigerung und der Auswirkungen der Ma{\\\\ss}nahmen gem{\\\\\\\"a}{\\\\ss} dem Nationalen Aktionsplan f{\\\\\\\"u}r Besch{\\\\\\\"a}ftigung k{\\\\\\\"o}nnte die Besch{\\\\\\\"a}ftigung ausgeweitet werden, und die Arbeitslosenquote bis zum Ende der Prognoseperiode leicht zur{\\\\\\\"u}ckgehen.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Mittelfristprognose Oesterreich\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Fritz Schebeck and Andrea Weber\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Mittelfristige Prognose {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1998\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = dec,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"71\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"845--853\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - \u00d6sterreichs Wirtschaft vorbereitet f\u00fcr die Teilnahme an der WWU. Mittelfristige Prognose der \u00f6sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis zum Jahr 2002<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schebeck, Fritz<\\\/p><p>AU  - Weber, Andrea<\\\/p><p>N1  - Mittelfristige Prognose \u00d6sterreich<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1998\\\/12<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1998\\\/12<\\\/p><p>N2  - Im Zeitraum 1997\\\/2002 wird das \u00f6sterreichische Bruttoinlandsprodukt real um durchschnittlich 2\u00be% pro Jahr zunehmen. Dank der gest\u00e4rkten au\u00dfenwirtschaftlichen Wettbewerbsposition werden sich die Exporte weiterhin dynamisch entwickeln, und die Au\u00dfenwirtschaft d\u00fcrfte einen positiven Beitrag zum Wachstum liefern. Die inl\u00e4ndische Nachfrage wird im Prognosezeitraum vom kr\u00e4ftiger wachsenden privaten Konsum getragen (durchschnittlich +2% real pro Jahr). Mit der Entwicklung der verf\u00fcgbaren Realeinkommen der privaten Haushalte wird sich die Sparquote wieder ihrem l\u00e4ngerfristigen Gleichgewichtswert n\u00e4hern. Die Bruttoanlageinvestitionen werden bis 2002 etwa doppelt so rasch steigen wie im Zeitraum 1991\\\/1997; die Dynamik geht dabei von den Ausr\u00fcstungsinvestitionen und nicht von den Bauinvestitionen aus. Infolge der Produktionssteigerung und der Auswirkungen der Ma\u00dfnahmen gem\u00e4\u00df dem Nationalen Aktionsplan f\u00fcr Besch\u00e4ftigung k\u00f6nnte die Besch\u00e4ftigung ausgeweitet werden, und die Arbeitslosenquote bis zum Ende der Prognoseperiode leicht zur\u00fcckgehen.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Im Zeitraum 1997\\\/2002 wird das \u00f6sterreichische Bruttoinlandsprodukt real um durchschnittlich 2\u00be% pro Jahr zunehmen. Dank der gest\u00e4rkten au\u00dfenwirtschaftlichen Wettbewerbsposition werden sich die Exporte weiterhin dynamisch entwickeln, und die Au\u00dfenwirtschaft d\u00fcrfte einen positiven Beitrag zum Wachstum liefern. Die inl\u00e4ndische Nachfrage wird im Prognosezeitraum vom kr\u00e4ftiger wachsenden privaten Konsum getragen (durchschnittlich +2% real pro Jahr). Mit der Entwicklung der verf\u00fcgbaren Realeinkommen der privaten Haushalte wird sich die Sparquote wieder ihrem l\u00e4ngerfristigen Gleichgewichtswert n\u00e4hern. Die Bruttoanlageinvestitionen werden bis 2002 etwa doppelt so rasch steigen wie im Zeitraum 1991\\\/1997; die Dynamik geht dabei von den Ausr\u00fcstungsinvestitionen und nicht von den Bauinvestitionen aus. Infolge der Produktionssteigerung und der Auswirkungen der Ma\u00dfnahmen gem\u00e4\u00df dem Nationalen Aktionsplan f\u00fcr Besch\u00e4ftigung k\u00f6nnte die Besch\u00e4ftigung ausgeweitet werden, und die Arbeitslosenquote bis zum Ende der Prognoseperiode leicht zur\u00fcckgehen.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Mittelfristprognose Oesterreich<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 71<\\\/p><p>SP  - 845<\\\/p><p>EP  - 853<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Austrian Economy Prepared for EMU. Medium-term Projection for the Austrian Economy until 2002 - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/85609\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Austrian Economy Prepared for EMU. 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