{"id":85597,"date":"2024-01-22T09:04:38","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T08:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/85597\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:54:56","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:54:56","slug":"finanzmarktturbulenzen-beeintraechtigen-internationale-wachstumsdynamik-mittelfristige-prognose-der-weltwirtschaft-bis-2002","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/85597\/","title":{"rendered":"Turbulent Financial Markets Impair International Growth Dynamism. Medium-term Projection for the Global Economy until 2002"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-85597","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Since 1997, prospects for growth have markedly deteriorated as a consequence of the economic crises in Eastern Asia and Russia, the recession in Japan and the looming financial crisis in Latin America. The chief causes that these four factors share is instability of financial markets in general and instability of the dollar exchange rate in particular.","onlinedate":"1998-12-01 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19981201","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":276686,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"71","monthly_report_pages":"831-843","monthly_report_pages_sort":"831","issue":"12","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (1998). <span>Finanzmarktturbulenzen beeintr\u00e4chtigen internationale Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2002<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>71<\\\/em>(12), 831-843. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/612\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/612<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Finanzmarktturbulenzen beeintr\u00e4chtigen internationale Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2002<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1998 Dec;71(12):831-843.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{eaad62afcc6040609077248ee0410ca8,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Finanzmarktturbulenzen beeintr{\\\\\\\"a}chtigen internationale Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2002\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Der Anstieg des Dollarkurses zwischen 1995 und 1997, der damit verbundene R{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang der Welthandelspreise und die sprunghafte Erh{\\\\\\\"o}hung des Realzinses f{\\\\\\\"u}r internationale Schulden haben wesentlich zum Entstehen der Finanzkrisen in Ostasien, Ru{\\\\ss}land und Lateinamerika sowie zum Verfall der Erd{\\\\\\\"o}lpreise beigetragen. Diese Entwicklungen werden das globale Wachstum im kommenden Jahr d{\\\\\\\"a}mpfen, ein weiterer R{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang von Zinssatz und Wechselkurs des Dollars und eine Erholung der Rohstoffpreise sollten jedoch eine Ausbreitung der Finanzkrisen verhindern. Insgesamt d{\\\\\\\"u}rften die Weltproduktion zwischen 1997 und 2002 um 3,5\\\\% und der Welthandel um 6,5\\\\% pro Jahr expandieren. W{\\\\\\\"a}hrend die USA und die EU ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,5\\\\% erreichen werden, d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte es in Japan 1\\\\% kaum {\\\\\\\"u}bersteigen.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Mittelfristprognose Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Mittelfristige Prognose Weltwirtschaft\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1998\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = dec,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"71\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"831--843\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Finanzmarktturbulenzen beeintr\u00e4chtigen internationale Wachstumsdynamik. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2002<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>N1  - Mittelfristige Prognose Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1998\\\/12<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1998\\\/12<\\\/p><p>N2  - Der Anstieg des Dollarkurses zwischen 1995 und 1997, der damit verbundene R\u00fcckgang der Welthandelspreise und die sprunghafte Erh\u00f6hung des Realzinses f\u00fcr internationale Schulden haben wesentlich zum Entstehen der Finanzkrisen in Ostasien, Ru\u00dfland und Lateinamerika sowie zum Verfall der Erd\u00f6lpreise beigetragen. Diese Entwicklungen werden das globale Wachstum im kommenden Jahr d\u00e4mpfen, ein weiterer R\u00fcckgang von Zinssatz und Wechselkurs des Dollars und eine Erholung der Rohstoffpreise sollten jedoch eine Ausbreitung der Finanzkrisen verhindern. Insgesamt d\u00fcrften die Weltproduktion zwischen 1997 und 2002 um 3,5% und der Welthandel um 6,5% pro Jahr expandieren. W\u00e4hrend die USA und die EU ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,5% erreichen werden, d\u00fcrfte es in Japan 1% kaum \u00fcbersteigen.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Der Anstieg des Dollarkurses zwischen 1995 und 1997, der damit verbundene R\u00fcckgang der Welthandelspreise und die sprunghafte Erh\u00f6hung des Realzinses f\u00fcr internationale Schulden haben wesentlich zum Entstehen der Finanzkrisen in Ostasien, Ru\u00dfland und Lateinamerika sowie zum Verfall der Erd\u00f6lpreise beigetragen. Diese Entwicklungen werden das globale Wachstum im kommenden Jahr d\u00e4mpfen, ein weiterer R\u00fcckgang von Zinssatz und Wechselkurs des Dollars und eine Erholung der Rohstoffpreise sollten jedoch eine Ausbreitung der Finanzkrisen verhindern. Insgesamt d\u00fcrften die Weltproduktion zwischen 1997 und 2002 um 3,5% und der Welthandel um 6,5% pro Jahr expandieren. W\u00e4hrend die USA und die EU ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 2,5% erreichen werden, d\u00fcrfte es in Japan 1% kaum \u00fcbersteigen.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Mittelfristprognose Weltwirtschaft<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 71<\\\/p><p>SP  - 831<\\\/p><p>EP  - 843<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Turbulent Financial Markets Impair International Growth Dynamism. 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