{"id":85461,"date":"2024-01-22T09:03:48","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T08:03:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/85461\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:53:49","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:53:49","slug":"kosten-und-nutzen-der-eu-osterweiterung-fuer-oesterreich-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/85461\/","title":{"rendered":"Costs and Benefits of the EU's Eastern Enlargement for Austria"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-85461","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"With the adoption of the Agenda 2000 in July 1997, the European Commission initiated the enlargement of the European Union to the east. Ten Central and East European countries (CEECs) were evaluated as candidates for membership in the EU. Five countries (Estonia, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia) and Cyprus were chosen as candidates for accession negotiations, which officially started on 31 March 1998. The bilateral negotiations began in earnest on 10 November 1998. The other five CEECs (Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, and Lithuania) will be involved in the preaccession strategy. Whether Slovakia and Latvia will be included in the first group of prospective members on the basis of the favorable Commission's progress report on these two countries remains an open question. The Agenda 2000 and the negotiation procedure established so far indicate that the accession of new members will take place in two waves. Given these perspectives, the financial costs and benefits of the eastern enlargement of the EU for Austria were again evaluated on the basis of the WIFO macroeconomic model (the first analysis of this question was carried out in 1995\/96). The model simulations for the period of 2002 to 2010 are based on the assumption that the first group of five CEECs will join the EU in 2002 (this assumption corresponds to the budget projections of the EU Commission), and that the other CEECs will accede to the EU in 2007. The assumptions underlying the model simulations are derived from integration theory and the budget framework of the European Commission for the period 2002-2006. In several steps, the direct and indirect trade effects as well as the effects of improvements in the terms of trade, changes in tourism, the increase in direct investment, and the financing costs imposed on Austria were calculated. The simulations do not take into account the effects of migration, which will strongly depend on the length of transition periods, which are likely to be agreed upon. In sum, the enlargement of the EU to the east may have a positive impact on almost all aggregates of Austria's economy. By the year 2010, real GDP is projected to be 1.3 percent higher than in a scenario without enlargement. This increase will be accompanied by an employment gain of 27,000 persons. The price level is expected to be 1 percent lower, and the government deficit is calculated to be lower by 0.4 percent of GDP.","onlinedate":"1998-11-01 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19981101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Kosten und Nutzen der EU-Osterweiterung f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich; Schwerpunkt \"EU-Osterweiterung\"; Costs and Benefits of the EU's Eastern Enlargement for Austria\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":276572,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"71","monthly_report_pages":"741-750","monthly_report_pages_sort":"741","issue":"11","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3917,3971],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3917,\"personName\":\"Fritz Breuss\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3971,\"personName\":\"Fritz Schebeck\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"
Breuss, F.<\\\/span>, & Schebeck, F.<\\\/span> (1998). Kosten und Nutzen der EU-Osterweiterung f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich<\\\/span>. WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, 71<\\\/em>(11), 741-750. https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/592<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"
Breuss F<\\\/span>, Schebeck F<\\\/span>. Kosten und Nutzen der EU-Osterweiterung f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich<\\\/span><\\\/span>. WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1998 Nov;71(11):741-750.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"
@misc{03c735770ef8447384bbce5ab0893506,<\\\/div>
title = \\\"Kosten und Nutzen der EU-Osterweiterung f{\\\\\\\"u}r {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich\\\",<\\\/div>
abstract = \\\"Aus der Agenda 2000 der Europ{\\\\\\\"a}ischen Kommission und aus der bisherigen Verhandlungsprozedur ist abzuleiten, da{\\\\ss} die Aufnahme neuer Mitglieder in zwei Gruppen erfolgen d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte. Die Simulationen mit dem WIFO-Makromodell f{\\\\\\\"u}r den Zeitraum 2002 bis 2010 unterstellen daher, da{\\\\ss} die erste Gruppe von 5 MOEL im Jahr 2002 und weitere 5 MOEL 2007 der EU beitreten. Insgesamt wirkt die EU-Osterweiterung auf nahezu alle Aggregate der {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichischen Wirtschaft mittel- und l{\\\\\\\"a}ngerfristig positiv. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt w{\\\\\\\"u}rde bis zum Jahr 2010 um 1,3\\\\% h{\\\\\\\"o}her sein als in einem Szenario ohne Osterweiterung. Damit verbunden w{\\\\\\\"a}re ein Anstieg der Besch{\\\\\\\"a}ftigtenzahl um rund 27.000. Das Preisniveau w{\\\\\\\"a}re um fast 1\\\\% niedriger, und die Neuverschuldung des Staates fiele um 0,4\\\\% des BIP geringer aus.\\\",<\\\/div>
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author = \\\"Fritz Breuss and Fritz Schebeck\\\",<\\\/div>
note = \\\"Osterweiterung Kosten Nutzen\\\",<\\\/div>
year = \\\"1998\\\",<\\\/div>
month = nov,<\\\/div>
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AU - Breuss, Fritz<\\\/p>

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N1 - Osterweiterung Kosten Nutzen<\\\/p>

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N2 - Aus der Agenda 2000 der Europ\u00e4ischen Kommission und aus der bisherigen Verhandlungsprozedur ist abzuleiten, da\u00df die Aufnahme neuer Mitglieder in zwei Gruppen erfolgen d\u00fcrfte. Die Simulationen mit dem WIFO-Makromodell f\u00fcr den Zeitraum 2002 bis 2010 unterstellen daher, da\u00df die erste Gruppe von 5 MOEL im Jahr 2002 und weitere 5 MOEL 2007 der EU beitreten. Insgesamt wirkt die EU-Osterweiterung auf nahezu alle Aggregate der \u00f6sterreichischen Wirtschaft mittel- und l\u00e4ngerfristig positiv. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt w\u00fcrde bis zum Jahr 2010 um 1,3% h\u00f6her sein als in einem Szenario ohne Osterweiterung. Damit verbunden w\u00e4re ein Anstieg der Besch\u00e4ftigtenzahl um rund 27.000. Das Preisniveau w\u00e4re um fast 1% niedriger, und die Neuverschuldung des Staates fiele um 0,4% des BIP geringer aus.<\\\/p>

AB - Aus der Agenda 2000 der Europ\u00e4ischen Kommission und aus der bisherigen Verhandlungsprozedur ist abzuleiten, da\u00df die Aufnahme neuer Mitglieder in zwei Gruppen erfolgen d\u00fcrfte. Die Simulationen mit dem WIFO-Makromodell f\u00fcr den Zeitraum 2002 bis 2010 unterstellen daher, da\u00df die erste Gruppe von 5 MOEL im Jahr 2002 und weitere 5 MOEL 2007 der EU beitreten. Insgesamt wirkt die EU-Osterweiterung auf nahezu alle Aggregate der \u00f6sterreichischen Wirtschaft mittel- und l\u00e4ngerfristig positiv. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt w\u00fcrde bis zum Jahr 2010 um 1,3% h\u00f6her sein als in einem Szenario ohne Osterweiterung. Damit verbunden w\u00e4re ein Anstieg der Besch\u00e4ftigtenzahl um rund 27.000. Das Preisniveau w\u00e4re um fast 1% niedriger, und die Neuverschuldung des Staates fiele um 0,4% des BIP geringer aus.<\\\/p>

KW - Kosten und Nutzen der EU-Osterweiterung f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich; Schwerpunkt \\\"EU-Osterweiterung\\\"; Costs and Benefits of the EU's Eastern Enlargement for Austria<\\\/p>

KW - Kosten und Nutzen der EU-Osterweiterung f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich; Schwerpunkt \\\"EU-Osterweiterung\\\"; Costs and Benefits of the EU's Eastern Enlargement for Austria<\\\/p>

M3 - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p>

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SP - 741<\\\/p>

EP - 750<\\\/p>

JO - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p>

JF - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p>

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