{"id":85373,"date":"2024-01-22T09:03:19","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T08:03:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/85373\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:52:59","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:52:59","slug":"waehrungskrisen-herausforderung-fuer-theorie-und-politik","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/85373\/","title":{"rendered":"Currency Crises: A Challenge to Economic Theory and Economic Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-85373","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"From the viewpoint of policy makers, the understanding of the causes and the course of financial crises remains inadequate. The theoretical analysis of currency crises has been hampered by the lack of empirical regularities in those of the past. Nonetheless, attempts are made repeatedly to provide a canonical explanation of international financial crises and to propose economic policies to prevent such crises. This article surveys the recent theoretical, empirical and economic policy literature on financial crises (with emphasis on the Asian crisis). Much of the recent theoretical literature, in particular that dealing with the Asian crisis, refers to the complex relationship between the constitutive imperfections of financial markets resulting from asymmetric information and the worldwide liberalization of the financial and capital markets. It is an outstanding feature of financial markets that they are strongly dominated by expectations. The actual market outcome may correspond to expectations even if these expectations were unjustified ex ante or absurd. Thus, expectations determine whether market outcomes tend toward a \"good\" or \"bad\" equilibrium. In principle, changes in international investors\" expectations for the worse \u2013 whether justified or not \u2013 may trigger crises (self-fulfilling crises) and move a country from a \"good\" (high growth) to a \"bad\" (low growth) equilibrium. According to the views of leading theoreticians and practitioners, this mechanism was the preeminent element of the Asian crisis. It is a surprising insight that \"self-fulfilling crises\" may indeed be the result of rational behavior, given the constitutive imperfections of financial and capital markets. In a world of liberalized financial markets, such crises cannot in principle be averted and are very difficult to forecast. A reversal of the liberalization of financial markets or the re-introduction of capital controls would be the wrong response, however. A superior option in economic policy is the establishment of \"support\" systems to increase the efficiency and stability of international financial markets. Core elements of such systems would be institutions of financial surveillance and monitoring, which among other tasks could fulfill the important function of a \"lender of last resort\" at the international level, and provide an internationally accepted set of rules for standstill agreements, debt relief for and financial default of countries.","onlinedate":"1998-09-01 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19980901","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"W\u00e4hrungskrisen \u2013 Herausforderung f\u00fcr Theorie und Politik; Currency Crises: A Challenge to Economic Theory and Economic Policy\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":276488,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"71","monthly_report_pages":"583-590","monthly_report_pages_sort":"583","issue":"9","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3925],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3925,\"personName\":\"Franz R. Hahn\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Hahn, F. R.<\\\/span> (1998). <span>W\u00e4hrungskrisen \u2013 Herausforderung f\u00fcr Theorie und Politik<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>71<\\\/em>(9), 583-590. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/562\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/562<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Hahn FR<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>W\u00e4hrungskrisen \u2013 Herausforderung f\u00fcr Theorie und Politik<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1998 Sept;71(9):583-590.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{c0e70f823b054b13ad9a13fa149ebf1e,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungskrisen \u2013 Herausforderung f{\\\\\\\"u}r Theorie und Politik\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Globalisierung und Liberalisierung von Kapitalverkehr und Kapitalm{\\\\\\\"a}rkten haben die Fragilit{\\\\\\\"a}t der Finanzm{\\\\\\\"a}rkte erh{\\\\\\\"o}ht. Die Gefahren, die von instabilen und krisenanf{\\\\\\\"a}lligen Finanzm{\\\\\\\"a}rkten ausgehen, k{\\\\\\\"o}nnen kaum {\\\\\\\"u}bersch{\\\\\\\"a}tzt werden und verdienen h{\\\\\\\"o}chste wirtschaftspolitische Aufmerksamkeit. Die j{\\\\\\\"u}ngsten W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungskrisen in Ostasien und Ru{\\\\ss}land sowie ihre komplexen Ursachen haben daher nicht nur das akademische, sondern auch das wirtschaftspolitische Interesse an Fragen der internationalen Krisenpr{\\\\\\\"a}vention, des effizienten Krisenmanagements, aber auch der Architektur von supranationalen Regulativen f{\\\\\\\"u}r Finanz- und Kapitalm{\\\\\\\"a}rkte und der Rolle der Banken neu belebt.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungskrisen \u2013 Herausforderung f{\\\\\\\"u}r Theorie und Politik; Currency Crises: A Challenge to Economic Theory and Economic Policy, W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungskrisen \u2013 Herausforderung f{\\\\\\\"u}r Theorie und Politik; Currency Crises: A Challenge to Economic Theory and Economic Policy\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Hahn, \\\\{Franz R.\\\\}\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungskrisen\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1998\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = sep,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"71\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"583--590\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - W\u00e4hrungskrisen \u2013 Herausforderung f\u00fcr Theorie und Politik<\\\/p><p>AU  - Hahn, Franz R.<\\\/p><p>N1  - W\u00e4hrungskrisen<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1998\\\/9<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1998\\\/9<\\\/p><p>N2  - Globalisierung und Liberalisierung von Kapitalverkehr und Kapitalm\u00e4rkten haben die Fragilit\u00e4t der Finanzm\u00e4rkte erh\u00f6ht. Die Gefahren, die von instabilen und krisenanf\u00e4lligen Finanzm\u00e4rkten ausgehen, k\u00f6nnen kaum \u00fcbersch\u00e4tzt werden und verdienen h\u00f6chste wirtschaftspolitische Aufmerksamkeit. Die j\u00fcngsten W\u00e4hrungskrisen in Ostasien und Ru\u00dfland sowie ihre komplexen Ursachen haben daher nicht nur das akademische, sondern auch das wirtschaftspolitische Interesse an Fragen der internationalen Krisenpr\u00e4vention, des effizienten Krisenmanagements, aber auch der Architektur von supranationalen Regulativen f\u00fcr Finanz- und Kapitalm\u00e4rkte und der Rolle der Banken neu belebt.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Globalisierung und Liberalisierung von Kapitalverkehr und Kapitalm\u00e4rkten haben die Fragilit\u00e4t der Finanzm\u00e4rkte erh\u00f6ht. Die Gefahren, die von instabilen und krisenanf\u00e4lligen Finanzm\u00e4rkten ausgehen, k\u00f6nnen kaum \u00fcbersch\u00e4tzt werden und verdienen h\u00f6chste wirtschaftspolitische Aufmerksamkeit. Die j\u00fcngsten W\u00e4hrungskrisen in Ostasien und Ru\u00dfland sowie ihre komplexen Ursachen haben daher nicht nur das akademische, sondern auch das wirtschaftspolitische Interesse an Fragen der internationalen Krisenpr\u00e4vention, des effizienten Krisenmanagements, aber auch der Architektur von supranationalen Regulativen f\u00fcr Finanz- und Kapitalm\u00e4rkte und der Rolle der Banken neu belebt.<\\\/p><p>KW  - W\u00e4hrungskrisen \u2013 Herausforderung f\u00fcr Theorie und Politik; Currency Crises: A Challenge to Economic Theory and Economic Policy<\\\/p><p>KW  - W\u00e4hrungskrisen \u2013 Herausforderung f\u00fcr Theorie und Politik; Currency Crises: A Challenge to Economic Theory and Economic Policy<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 71<\\\/p><p>SP  - 583<\\\/p><p>EP  - 590<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - 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