{"id":85301,"date":"2024-01-22T09:02:56","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T08:02:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/85301\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:52:19","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:52:19","slug":"langfristige-prognose-des-arbeitskraefteangebotes-vorausschaetzung-1996-2030-und-modellrechnung-bis-2050-nach-bundeslaendern-3","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/85301\/","title":{"rendered":"Labor Force Projections for Austria and its L\u00e4nder: 1996-2050"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-85301","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This article is the result of a joint research and forecasting effort of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) and the Austrian Central Statistical Office (\u00d6STAT). The projection of the labor force participation rates was performed by WIFO based on the WIFO database of the Austrian labor force. The breakdown of activity rates by L\u00e4nder (NUTS 2) draws on census data of 1991. The long-term demographic forecasts were undertaken by \u00d6STAT. The study includes six labor force projections: one main (medium) variant, two fertility and two migration scenarios, and one variant in which 1996 activity rates were used as constants, to allow calculating sensitivy tests which clarify the impact of demographic vis-\u00e0-vis behavioral effects upon labor supply. According to the main (medium) variant of the labor force projection, labor supply will rise from 3.65 million in 1996, the base year of the projection, to 3.80 million in 2012 (a plus of 4.1 percent over 1996). In the long run labor supply will decline due to demographic reasons. Around 2022, the labor force will be once again down to the level of 1996. In 2030, the Austrian labor force should amount to 3.37 million (\u20137.6 percent versus 1996) and thus correspond to the level of 1986. The population aging process is reflected in the development of labor supply. The proportion and absolute number of young workers will decline, while the number of older workers will increase. The demographic structure of the labor force bears the mark of the baby-boom generation of the late 1950s and early 1960s and the ensuing baby-bust generation of the 1970s. The baby-boom generation is now around 35 years old and will have retired by 2030, given today's retirement regulations. In the medium term, labor supply will increase in all nine Austrian L\u00e4nder (NUTS-2 regions). The peak will be reached in the east (with the exception of Vienna) and south in 2006, in Vienna and the west around 2015. By 2030, the labor force will be below the 1996 level in all L\u00e4nder. After 2030, labor supply will continue to decline everywhere except in Vienna, where it will remain more or less stable.","onlinedate":"1998-06-01 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19980601","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskr\u00e4fteangebotes. Voraussch\u00e4tzung 1996\/2030 und Modellrechnung bis 2050 nach Bundesl\u00e4ndern; Labor Force Projections for Austria and its L\u00e4nder: 1996-2050\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":276422,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"71","monthly_report_pages":"399-414","monthly_report_pages_sort":"399","issue":"6","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[4027,15693],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4027,\"personName\":\"Gudrun Biffl\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":15693,\"personName\":\"Alexander Hanika\",\"organisationNames\":[\"ST.AT\"]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Biffl, G.<\\\/span>, &amp; Hanika, A. (1998). <span>Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskr\u00e4fteangebotes. Voraussch\u00e4tzung 1996\\\/2030 und Modellrechnung bis 2050 nach Bundesl\u00e4ndern<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>71<\\\/em>(6), 399-414. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/535\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/535<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Biffl G<\\\/span>, Hanika A. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskr\u00e4fteangebotes. Voraussch\u00e4tzung 1996\\\/2030 und Modellrechnung bis 2050 nach Bundesl\u00e4ndern<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1998 Jun;71(6):399-414.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{a2dc2adf4df640b1bb2e96750275c511,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskr{\\\\\\\"a}fteangebotes. Voraussch{\\\\\\\"a}tzung 1996\\\/2030 und Modellrechnung bis 2050 nach Bundesl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Das Arbeitskr{\\\\\\\"a}fteangebot wird mit dem {\\\\\\\"A}lterwerden der Babyboom-Generation der sp{\\\\\\\"a}ten f{\\\\\\\"u}nfziger und fr{\\\\\\\"u}hen sechziger Jahre und dem Eintritt der geburtenschwachen Jahrg{\\\\\\\"a}nge der siebziger Jahre in den Arbeitsmarkt im fr{\\\\\\\"u}hen n{\\\\\\\"a}chsten Jahrhundert rasch altern. Das Ausma{\\\\ss} und die Geschwindigkeit der {\\\\\\\"U}beralterung ist nicht in allen Bundesl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern gleich. Das resultiert sowohl aus demographischen Faktoren als auch aus einer unterschiedlichen Entwicklung des Erwerbsverhaltens von Frauen und M{\\\\\\\"a}nnern nach Alter und Region. Das Erwerbsverhalten der {\\\\\\\"O}sterreicher wird sich allm{\\\\\\\"a}hlich an den EU-Durchschnitt anpassen, insbesondere wird die Erwerbsbeteiligung {\\\\\\\"A}lterer und von Frauen in mittleren Jahren steigen.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskr{\\\\\\\"a}fteangebotes. Voraussch{\\\\\\\"a}tzung 1996\\\/2030 und Modellrechnung bis 2050 nach Bundesl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern; Labor Force Projections for Austria and its L{\\\\\\\"a}nder: 1996-2050, Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskr{\\\\\\\"a}fteangebotes. Voraussch{\\\\\\\"a}tzung 1996\\\/2030 und Modellrechnung bis 2050 nach Bundesl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern; Labor Force Projections for Austria and its L{\\\\\\\"a}nder: 1996-2050\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Gudrun Biffl and Alexander Hanika\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Arbeitskr{\\\\\\\"a}fteangebot\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1998\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jun,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"71\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"399--414\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskr\u00e4fteangebotes. Voraussch\u00e4tzung 1996\\\/2030 und Modellrechnung bis 2050 nach Bundesl\u00e4ndern<\\\/p><p>AU  - Biffl, Gudrun<\\\/p><p>AU  - Hanika, Alexander<\\\/p><p>N1  - Arbeitskr\u00e4fteangebot<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1998\\\/6<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1998\\\/6<\\\/p><p>N2  - Das Arbeitskr\u00e4fteangebot wird mit dem \u00c4lterwerden der Babyboom-Generation der sp\u00e4ten f\u00fcnfziger und fr\u00fchen sechziger Jahre und dem Eintritt der geburtenschwachen Jahrg\u00e4nge der siebziger Jahre in den Arbeitsmarkt im fr\u00fchen n\u00e4chsten Jahrhundert rasch altern. Das Ausma\u00df und die Geschwindigkeit der \u00dcberalterung ist nicht in allen Bundesl\u00e4ndern gleich. Das resultiert sowohl aus demographischen Faktoren als auch aus einer unterschiedlichen Entwicklung des Erwerbsverhaltens von Frauen und M\u00e4nnern nach Alter und Region. Das Erwerbsverhalten der \u00d6sterreicher wird sich allm\u00e4hlich an den EU-Durchschnitt anpassen, insbesondere wird die Erwerbsbeteiligung \u00c4lterer und von Frauen in mittleren Jahren steigen.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Das Arbeitskr\u00e4fteangebot wird mit dem \u00c4lterwerden der Babyboom-Generation der sp\u00e4ten f\u00fcnfziger und fr\u00fchen sechziger Jahre und dem Eintritt der geburtenschwachen Jahrg\u00e4nge der siebziger Jahre in den Arbeitsmarkt im fr\u00fchen n\u00e4chsten Jahrhundert rasch altern. Das Ausma\u00df und die Geschwindigkeit der \u00dcberalterung ist nicht in allen Bundesl\u00e4ndern gleich. Das resultiert sowohl aus demographischen Faktoren als auch aus einer unterschiedlichen Entwicklung des Erwerbsverhaltens von Frauen und M\u00e4nnern nach Alter und Region. Das Erwerbsverhalten der \u00d6sterreicher wird sich allm\u00e4hlich an den EU-Durchschnitt anpassen, insbesondere wird die Erwerbsbeteiligung \u00c4lterer und von Frauen in mittleren Jahren steigen.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskr\u00e4fteangebotes. Voraussch\u00e4tzung 1996\\\/2030 und Modellrechnung bis 2050 nach Bundesl\u00e4ndern; Labor Force Projections for Austria and its L\u00e4nder: 1996-2050<\\\/p><p>KW  - Langfristige Prognose des Arbeitskr\u00e4fteangebotes. 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