{"id":84379,"date":"2024-01-22T08:55:27","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T07:55:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/84379\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:44:32","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:44:32","slug":"weiterhin-divergierende-entwicklung-in-den-transformationslaendern-die-wirtschaft-der-oststaaten-1996-97","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/84379\/","title":{"rendered":"Diverging Results in the Transition Countries"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-84379","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The Central and East European economies closed the year well behind 1995, with an average GDP growth of 3.5 percent. High investment helped to maintain high GDP growth in Poland and Slovakia. The banking crisis in Bulgaria resulted in strong GDP decline and very high inflation. Russia and Ukraine achieved remarkable success in disinflation, at the cost of further GDP decline. Moderate disinflation continues in all of the more advanced CEE economies, although the low budget deficits and recent restrictive monetary policies have not brought about the rapid disinflation authorities had hoped for. Real appreciation of the domestic currencies, as well as rising competition, seem to have been important in the continuing reduction of inflation rates. In Croatia and FYR Macedonia, deflationary tendencies previously at work now seem to have been overcome. Current account deficits have been growing in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. In 1996, none of these countries had a problem achieving the necessary inflow of capital needed to compensate. Forces underlying recent performance will continue to be at work in 1997 and 1998. GDP growth in more advanced CEE countries will continue to be moderate, and lower still in the less advanced economies. Assuming only marginal improvement in the West European business climate, there will be little opportunity to boost exports. The advanced CEE countries will probably try to prevent excessive increases in imports through additional devaluation's, but short of the drastic restrictions on domestic consumption and investment that seem likely in Romania and Bulgaria. The Czech Republic is fighting foreign trade imbalances by newly introduced import deposits and slowing down wage increases, without however devaluating the national currency. In Slovakia, import levels could be cooled by slowing down the pace of government investments in infrastructure. Hungary and Slovenia will be less likely to need restrictions. In both Russia and Ukraine maintaining relatively stable prices will undoubtedly remain a priority. Economic stabilization is at least a possibility in these two countries.","onlinedate":"1997-05-01 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19970501","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Weiterhin divergierende Entwicklung in den Transformationsl\u00e4ndern. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1996\/97; Diverging Results in the Transition Countries\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":275636,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"70","monthly_report_pages":"321-341","monthly_report_pages_sort":"321","issue":"5","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[12211,13089,13585],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":12211,\"personName\":\"Leon Podkaminer\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":13089,\"personName\":\"Hermine Vidovic\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":13585,\"personName\":\"et al.\",\"organisationNames\":[\"The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies\"]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\">Podkaminer, L., Vidovic, H., &amp; et al. (1997). <span>Weiterhin divergierende Entwicklung in den Transformationsl\u00e4ndern. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1996\\\/97<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>70<\\\/em>(5), 321-341. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/363\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/363<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\">Podkaminer L, Vidovic H, et al. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Weiterhin divergierende Entwicklung in den Transformationsl\u00e4ndern. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1996\\\/97<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1997 May;70(5):321-341.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{2aae0b1556ed4258925a716851d3f844,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Weiterhin divergierende Entwicklung in den Transformationsl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1996\\\/97\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"In Ost-Mitteleuropa hat sich das Wirtschaftswachstum verlangsamt. Nur in Polen und der Slowakei hielt die starke Investitionst{\\\\\\\"a}tigkeit die Dynamik ann{\\\\\\\"a}hernd aufrecht. Ru{\\\\ss}land und die Ukraine erreichten gro{\\\\ss}e Fortschritte im Inflationsabbau, erlitten aber weitere Wachstumseinbu{\\\\ss}en. Das steigende Leistungsbilanzdefizit Polens, der Slowakei und Tschechiens gef{\\\\\\\"a}hrdete das Gleichgewicht 1996 noch nicht, da es durch Kapitalzufl{\\\\\\\"u}sse aus dem Ausland kompensiert wurde. 1997 und 1998 wird sich das Wachstum in jenen L{\\\\\\\"a}ndern, deren Reformen schon weiter vorangekommen sind, m{\\\\\\\"a}{\\\\ss}ig, in den anderen kaum beschleunigen. In Ru{\\\\ss}land und der Ukraine w{\\\\\\\"a}re eine Stabilisierung m{\\\\\\\"o}glich.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Weiterhin divergierende Entwicklung in den Transformationsl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1996\\\/97; Diverging Results in the Transition Countries, Weiterhin divergierende Entwicklung in den Transformationsl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1996\\\/97; Diverging Results in the Transition Countries\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Leon Podkaminer and Hermine Vidovic and \\\\{et al.\\\\}\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1997\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = may,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"70\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"321--341\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Weiterhin divergierende Entwicklung in den Transformationsl\u00e4ndern. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1996\\\/97<\\\/p><p>AU  - Podkaminer, Leon<\\\/p><p>AU  - Vidovic, Hermine<\\\/p><p>AU  - et al., null<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1997\\\/5<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1997\\\/5<\\\/p><p>N2  - In Ost-Mitteleuropa hat sich das Wirtschaftswachstum verlangsamt. Nur in Polen und der Slowakei hielt die starke Investitionst\u00e4tigkeit die Dynamik ann\u00e4hernd aufrecht. Ru\u00dfland und die Ukraine erreichten gro\u00dfe Fortschritte im Inflationsabbau, erlitten aber weitere Wachstumseinbu\u00dfen. Das steigende Leistungsbilanzdefizit Polens, der Slowakei und Tschechiens gef\u00e4hrdete das Gleichgewicht 1996 noch nicht, da es durch Kapitalzufl\u00fcsse aus dem Ausland kompensiert wurde. 1997 und 1998 wird sich das Wachstum in jenen L\u00e4ndern, deren Reformen schon weiter vorangekommen sind, m\u00e4\u00dfig, in den anderen kaum beschleunigen. In Ru\u00dfland und der Ukraine w\u00e4re eine Stabilisierung m\u00f6glich.<\\\/p><p>AB  - In Ost-Mitteleuropa hat sich das Wirtschaftswachstum verlangsamt. Nur in Polen und der Slowakei hielt die starke Investitionst\u00e4tigkeit die Dynamik ann\u00e4hernd aufrecht. Ru\u00dfland und die Ukraine erreichten gro\u00dfe Fortschritte im Inflationsabbau, erlitten aber weitere Wachstumseinbu\u00dfen. Das steigende Leistungsbilanzdefizit Polens, der Slowakei und Tschechiens gef\u00e4hrdete das Gleichgewicht 1996 noch nicht, da es durch Kapitalzufl\u00fcsse aus dem Ausland kompensiert wurde. 1997 und 1998 wird sich das Wachstum in jenen L\u00e4ndern, deren Reformen schon weiter vorangekommen sind, m\u00e4\u00dfig, in den anderen kaum beschleunigen. In Ru\u00dfland und der Ukraine w\u00e4re eine Stabilisierung m\u00f6glich.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Weiterhin divergierende Entwicklung in den Transformationsl\u00e4ndern. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1996\\\/97; Diverging Results in the Transition Countries<\\\/p><p>KW  - Weiterhin divergierende Entwicklung in den Transformationsl\u00e4ndern. 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