{"id":84165,"date":"2024-01-22T08:53:53","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T07:53:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/84165\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:42:45","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:42:45","slug":"budgetkonsolidierung-im-vorfeld-der-verwirklichung-der-waehrungsunion-mittelfristige-prognose-der-oesterreichischen-wirtschaft-bis-2000-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/84165\/","title":{"rendered":"Fiscal Consolidation in View of the Completion of EMU. Medium-Term Projections for the Austrian Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-84165","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The Austrian economy has been struck by the most recent business cycle downturn in Europe. At the same time, a two-year program of fiscal consolidation has been launched comprising all levels of government, with the aim of bringing down public sector borrowing to 3 percent of GDP by 1997. In the short run, lackluster demand from abroad and real income losses of private households will considerably dampen the pace of activity. As from 1998, demand and output should rebound strongly and advance by nearly 3 percent p.a. until the year 2000. On average for the period 1995-2000, real GDP may rise by only 1.8 percent p.a., thereby falling somewhat behind the pace in the EU (projected at 2.1 percent). A more competitive environment adds to the pressure for rationalization and efforts to save labor as input for production. The public sector is unlikely to expand its personnel capacities in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the number of jobs may not increase over the projection period, leading to a marked increase in unemployment. In 1998, the jobless rate may attain 8 percent (of the dependent labor force, as conventionally measured), before abating to 7\u00bd percent by 2000. Labor market and wage developments are closely interrelated. Real wages are expected to increase at a markedly slower pace than labor productivity. Inflation should remain firmly under control, as neither import prices nor wage costs are likely to exert significant upward pressure. The new setting of fiscal policy and the projected international scenario will allow government borrowing to decline to a ratio of 3 percent of GDP by 1997, thereby meeting the relevant convergence criterion for participation in the European Monetary Union. Thereafter, with economic growth accelerating and public authorities maintaining tight control over expenditure, the deficit\/GDP ratio may continue falling to 2 percent by the year 2000.","onlinedate":"1996-04-01 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19960401","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":275456,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"69","monthly_report_pages":"259-265","monthly_report_pages_sort":"259","issue":"4","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500,3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3971],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3971,\"personName\":\"Fritz Schebeck\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schebeck, F.<\\\/span> (1996). <span>Budgetkonsolidierung im Vorfeld der Verwirklichung der W\u00e4hrungsunion. Mittelfristige Prognose der \u00f6sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2000<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>69<\\\/em>(4), 259-265. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/306\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/306<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schebeck F<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Budgetkonsolidierung im Vorfeld der Verwirklichung der W\u00e4hrungsunion. Mittelfristige Prognose der \u00f6sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2000<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1996 Apr;69(4):259-265.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{1eaf2f9795b44d9f91da09b1c6b8c3f2,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Budgetkonsolidierung im Vorfeld der Verwirklichung der W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsunion. Mittelfristige Prognose der {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2000\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Nach zwei Jahren Wachstumsflaute wird sich die {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichische Wirtschaft ab 1998 wieder dynamischer entwickeln. Mit einer durchschnittlichen Zunahme des realen Brutto-Inlandsproduktes um 1,8\\\\% pro Jahr w{\\\\\\\"a}chst die Produktion in {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich jedoch langsamer als in der EU (+2,1\\\\%). Das Budgetkriterium f{\\\\\\\"u}r die Teilnahme an der W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsunion, n{\\\\\\\"a}mlich die Neuverschuldung des Staates bis 1997 auf 3\\\\% des BIP zu dr{\\\\\\\"u}cken, ist der Prognose zufolge erf{\\\\\\\"u}llbar. Die erwartete Belebung des Wirtschaftswachstums k{\\\\\\\"o}nnte \u2013 bei gleichzeitig diszipliniertem Ausgabenverhalten des Staates \u2013 die Neuverschuldungsquote bis zum Jahr 2000 auf etwa 2\\\\% sinken lassen.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Budgetkonsolidierung im Vorfeld der Verwirklichung der W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsunion. Mittelfristprognose der {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2000; Fiscal Consolidation in View of the Completion of EMU. Medium-Term Projections for the Austrian Economy\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Fritz Schebeck\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1996\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = apr,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"69\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"259--265\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Budgetkonsolidierung im Vorfeld der Verwirklichung der W\u00e4hrungsunion. Mittelfristige Prognose der \u00f6sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2000<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schebeck, Fritz<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1996\\\/4<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1996\\\/4<\\\/p><p>N2  - Nach zwei Jahren Wachstumsflaute wird sich die \u00f6sterreichische Wirtschaft ab 1998 wieder dynamischer entwickeln. Mit einer durchschnittlichen Zunahme des realen Brutto-Inlandsproduktes um 1,8% pro Jahr w\u00e4chst die Produktion in \u00d6sterreich jedoch langsamer als in der EU (+2,1%). Das Budgetkriterium f\u00fcr die Teilnahme an der W\u00e4hrungsunion, n\u00e4mlich die Neuverschuldung des Staates bis 1997 auf 3% des BIP zu dr\u00fccken, ist der Prognose zufolge erf\u00fcllbar. Die erwartete Belebung des Wirtschaftswachstums k\u00f6nnte \u2013 bei gleichzeitig diszipliniertem Ausgabenverhalten des Staates \u2013 die Neuverschuldungsquote bis zum Jahr 2000 auf etwa 2% sinken lassen.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Nach zwei Jahren Wachstumsflaute wird sich die \u00f6sterreichische Wirtschaft ab 1998 wieder dynamischer entwickeln. Mit einer durchschnittlichen Zunahme des realen Brutto-Inlandsproduktes um 1,8% pro Jahr w\u00e4chst die Produktion in \u00d6sterreich jedoch langsamer als in der EU (+2,1%). Das Budgetkriterium f\u00fcr die Teilnahme an der W\u00e4hrungsunion, n\u00e4mlich die Neuverschuldung des Staates bis 1997 auf 3% des BIP zu dr\u00fccken, ist der Prognose zufolge erf\u00fcllbar. Die erwartete Belebung des Wirtschaftswachstums k\u00f6nnte \u2013 bei gleichzeitig diszipliniertem Ausgabenverhalten des Staates \u2013 die Neuverschuldungsquote bis zum Jahr 2000 auf etwa 2% sinken lassen.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Budgetkonsolidierung im Vorfeld der Verwirklichung der W\u00e4hrungsunion. Mittelfristprognose der \u00f6sterreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2000; Fiscal Consolidation in View of the Completion of EMU. Medium-Term Projections for the Austrian Economy<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 69<\\\/p><p>SP  - 259<\\\/p><p>EP  - 265<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fiscal Consolidation in View of the Completion of EMU. 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