{"id":84105,"date":"2024-01-22T08:53:21","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T07:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/84105\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:42:16","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:42:16","slug":"potential-output-messung-fuer-oesterreich","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/84105\/","title":{"rendered":"The Measurement of Potential Output for Austria"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-84105","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Most empirical approaches to measuring potential output (PO) are based on variants of the method of trend extraction. This is also true for estimating PO on the basis of production functions. Structural approaches rely on trend extraction methods, in connection with determining potential employment or the long-term path of productivity for example. Thus, trend adjustment methods are of central importance for the measurement of PO, regardless of whether PO is estimated through a structural or astructural approach. These considerations have led some economists to attempt to combine astructural methods (e.g., mechanistic trend extrapolation) with structural approaches in such a way that the disadvantages of both methods are diminished. One such method of combining structural and astructural elements computes aggregate PO on the basis of a trend adjustment method (e.g., the HP filter) and on the basis of specific \"structural information\" deduced from price-wage equations. This article has refined this technique. The extension concerns above all the method of optimal extraction of cyclical components from GDP and the unemployment rate through the use of bivariate structural time series models. Thus, PO and the \"natural unemployment rate\" UNAT are determined without the aid of direct structural information. PO and UNAT are defined as \"unobservable variables\" and follow a \"smooth stochastic trend\". Through the use of price and wage equations for the \"optimal\" extraction of cyclical components of GDP and of the unemployment rate, information on the system and structure of the economy enters in an indirect way into the computation of PO and UNAT. This link is established by explicitly taking into account the close connection between the cyclical components of GDP (BC) and the unemployment rate (UC), known as Okun's Law, and the influence of these two cyclical variables on wage and price inflation. This ensures the neutrality of PO with regard to inflation in this approach. Potential output exhibited the highest annual growth rates (over 5 percent) in the early seventies (1970-1973) and in 1989. The lowest growth rate for PO (less than 1 percent) was computed for 1983 and 1984. In the period after 1989, a year of record growth, PO growth shows a marked downwards tendency. PO growth during the last three quarters of the sample period (1995:(1) to 1995:(3)) is estimated to be just slightly above 1 percent, marginally higher than during the troughs of the sample period. Since the beginning of the 1990s, actual GDP was almost always below PO. The PO estimates imply that the average length of the cycle in the variables BC and UC is 28 quarters. The cyclical component of the unemployment rate lags behind that of GDP by close to 3 quarters on average.","onlinedate":"1996-03-01 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19960301","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":275408,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"69","monthly_report_pages":"223-234","monthly_report_pages_sort":"223","issue":"3","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3925,4173],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3925,\"personName\":\"Franz R. Hahn\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":4173,\"personName\":\"Gerhard R\u00fcnstler\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Hahn, F. R.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; R\u00fcnstler, G.<\\\/span> (1996). <span>Potential-Output-Messung f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>69<\\\/em>(3), 223-234. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/300\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/300<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Hahn FR<\\\/span><span>, R\u00fcnstler G<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Potential-Output-Messung f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1996 Mar;69(3):223-234.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{843676b4a1f64828b250bc52d3e62d03,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Potential-Output-Messung f{\\\\\\\"u}r {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Das Konzept des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotentials (PO) dient Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung als Indikator f{\\\\\\\"u}r das langfristige Wachstumspotential einer Volkswirtschaft. Die Abweichung des tats{\\\\\\\"a}chlichen vom potentiellen Output gibt dar{\\\\\\\"u}ber hinaus Orientierungshilfen f{\\\\\\\"u}r die kurzfristige Stabilit{\\\\\\\"a}tspolitik. Die Geld- und W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsbeh{\\\\\\\"o}rden in vielen Industriel{\\\\\\\"a}ndern verwenden u. a. das Konzept des Potential Output zur Steuerung und Effektuierung inflationspolitischer Ma{\\\\ss}nahmen. Als geeignetes Ma{\\\\ss} f{\\\\\\\"u}r die Neuberechnung des PO f{\\\\\\\"u}r {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich wird eine Kombination aus astrukturellen (mechanistischen) und strukturellen Elementen auf der Grundlage des {\\\"}Natural-rate{\\\"}-Gleichgewichtskonzeptes vorgeschlagen. Einfachheit der Berechnungsmethode bei gleichzeitig effizienter Nutzung der verf{\\\\\\\"u}gbaren unterj{\\\\\\\"a}hrigen Daten- und Informationsbasis z{\\\\\\\"a}hlen zu den Vorteilen dieses Verfahrens.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Potential-Output-Messung f{\\\\\\\"u}r {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich; The Measurement of Potential Output for Austria\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Hahn, \\\\{Franz R.\\\\} and Gerhard R{\\\\\\\"u}nstler\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1996\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = mar,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"69\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"223--234\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Potential-Output-Messung f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich<\\\/p><p>AU  - Hahn, Franz R.<\\\/p><p>AU  - R\u00fcnstler, Gerhard<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1996\\\/3<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1996\\\/3<\\\/p><p>N2  - Das Konzept des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotentials (PO) dient Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung als Indikator f\u00fcr das langfristige Wachstumspotential einer Volkswirtschaft. Die Abweichung des tats\u00e4chlichen vom potentiellen Output gibt dar\u00fcber hinaus Orientierungshilfen f\u00fcr die kurzfristige Stabilit\u00e4tspolitik. Die Geld- und W\u00e4hrungsbeh\u00f6rden in vielen Industriel\u00e4ndern verwenden u. a. das Konzept des Potential Output zur Steuerung und Effektuierung inflationspolitischer Ma\u00dfnahmen. Als geeignetes Ma\u00df f\u00fcr die Neuberechnung des PO f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich wird eine Kombination aus astrukturellen (mechanistischen) und strukturellen Elementen auf der Grundlage des \\\"Natural-rate\\\"-Gleichgewichtskonzeptes vorgeschlagen. Einfachheit der Berechnungsmethode bei gleichzeitig effizienter Nutzung der verf\u00fcgbaren unterj\u00e4hrigen Daten- und Informationsbasis z\u00e4hlen zu den Vorteilen dieses Verfahrens.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Das Konzept des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionspotentials (PO) dient Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung als Indikator f\u00fcr das langfristige Wachstumspotential einer Volkswirtschaft. Die Abweichung des tats\u00e4chlichen vom potentiellen Output gibt dar\u00fcber hinaus Orientierungshilfen f\u00fcr die kurzfristige Stabilit\u00e4tspolitik. Die Geld- und W\u00e4hrungsbeh\u00f6rden in vielen Industriel\u00e4ndern verwenden u. a. das Konzept des Potential Output zur Steuerung und Effektuierung inflationspolitischer Ma\u00dfnahmen. Als geeignetes Ma\u00df f\u00fcr die Neuberechnung des PO f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich wird eine Kombination aus astrukturellen (mechanistischen) und strukturellen Elementen auf der Grundlage des \\\"Natural-rate\\\"-Gleichgewichtskonzeptes vorgeschlagen. Einfachheit der Berechnungsmethode bei gleichzeitig effizienter Nutzung der verf\u00fcgbaren unterj\u00e4hrigen Daten- und Informationsbasis z\u00e4hlen zu den Vorteilen dieses Verfahrens.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Potential-Output-Messung f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich; The Measurement of Potential Output for Austria<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 69<\\\/p><p>SP  - 223<\\\/p><p>EP  - 234<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Measurement of Potential Output for Austria - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/84105\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Measurement of Potential Output for Austria\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/84105\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-06T22:42:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/84105\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/84105\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Measurement of Potential Output for Austria - 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