{"id":84077,"date":"2024-01-22T08:53:08","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T07:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/84077\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:42:02","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:42:02","slug":"wechselkursregime-und-wirtschaftsdynamik-in-der-eu-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/84077\/","title":{"rendered":"Exchange Rate Regime and Economic Activity in the European Union"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-84077","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Between 1982 and 1986, the weaker European currencies were devalued substantially in a number of realignments. At the same time, consumer prices and unit labor costs in the countries concerned rose above average, making for a decline in the real effective exchange rate by only 1\u00bd percent p.a., while the latter increased by the same amount in the hard-currency countries. Although exports and investment in the countries of weaker currency were stimulated by these devaluations, GDP of the EU as a whole expanded by hardly 2 percent p.a. over the period 1981-1987. From 1987 to 1992 when exchange rates remained stable inflation differentials between soft- and hard-currency countries abated gradually, while trend GDP growth in the EU accelerated to almost 3 percent p.a. Stable framework conditions for intra-EU trade have been largely responsible for this outcome. Between September 1992 and August 1993 the EMS de facto collapsed, mainly due to the fact that the policy of high interest rates pursued by the Bundesbank was oriented towards developments in Germany, while disregarding the need for lower interest rates in EMS partner countries, particularly in the U.K. Unlike in earlier phases of exchange rate instability unit labor costs since 1992 have not advanced by more than in the hard-currency block, resulting in a large shift in price competitiveness: between 1992 and 1995, the real effective exchange rate of the hard-currency area rose by an average 3 percent p.a. while that of the other EU countries fell by 6 percent p.a. Over the same period, total exports of the soft-currency area increased by an annual 9 percent, those of the hard-currency block by only 3 percent. Growth of real economic activity in the EU as a whole has been dampened by exchange rate instability: between 1992 and 1995, real GDP advanced 1\u00bd percent p.a., only half the amount of the 1987-1992 period. Expansion of intra-EU trade, too, has been slower in the latter period \u2013 despite the establishment of the single market \u2013 than during the period of stable exchange rates.","onlinedate":"1996-03-01 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19960301","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Wechselkursregime und Wirtschaftsdynamik in der EU; Exchange Rate Regime and Economic Activity in the European Union\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":275384,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"69","monthly_report_pages":"203-215","monthly_report_pages_sort":"203","issue":"3","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (1996). <span>Wechselkursregime und Wirtschaftsdynamik in der EU<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>69<\\\/em>(3), 203-215. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/298\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/298<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Wechselkursregime und Wirtschaftsdynamik in der EU<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1996 Mar;69(3):203-215.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{1f8950a78f3743839171ff0173f39325,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Wechselkursregime und Wirtschaftsdynamik in der EU\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Die monet{\\\\\\\"a}ren Rahmenbedingungen f{\\\\\\\"u}r Au{\\\\ss}enhandel und Investitionen haben sich seit dem Zusammenbruch des Europ{\\\\\\\"a}ischen W{\\\\\\\"a}hrungssystems 1992\\\/93 nachhaltig ver{\\\\\\\"a}ndert. Nach sechs Jahren stabiler Wechselkurse wurde die EU in einen Hartw{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsblock unter der {\\\"}leadership{\\\"} der Deutschen Bundesbank und in die Weichw{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsl{\\\\\\\"a}nder gespalten. Zwischen 1992 und 1995 stieg der real-effektive Wechselkurs von Deutschland, Frankreich, den Niederlanden, Belgien, D{\\\\\\\"a}nemark und {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich um durchschnittlich 3\\\\% pro Jahr, jener der {\\\\\\\"u}brigen EU-L{\\\\\\\"a}nder sank hingegen um 6\\\\% pro Jahr; gleichzeitig expandierten die Exporte der Abwertungsl{\\\\\\\"a}nder real um 9\\\\% pro Jahr, w{\\\\\\\"a}hrend jene des Hartw{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsblocks um nur 3\\\\% zunahmen. Da die Lohnst{\\\\\\\"u}ckkosten in den Weichw{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsl{\\\\\\\"a}ndern nicht rascher steigen als im Hartw{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsblock, d{\\\\\\\"u}rften die Wechselkursverschiebungen seit 1992 die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung Europas auch noch in der n{\\\\\\\"a}chsten Zukunft beeinflussen.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Wechselkursregime und Wirtschaftsdynamik in der EU; Exchange Rate Regime and Economic Activity in the European Union, Wechselkursregime und Wirtschaftsdynamik in der EU; Exchange Rate Regime and Economic Activity in the European Union\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1996\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = mar,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"69\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"203--215\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Wechselkursregime und Wirtschaftsdynamik in der EU<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1996\\\/3<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1996\\\/3<\\\/p><p>N2  - Die monet\u00e4ren Rahmenbedingungen f\u00fcr Au\u00dfenhandel und Investitionen haben sich seit dem Zusammenbruch des Europ\u00e4ischen W\u00e4hrungssystems 1992\\\/93 nachhaltig ver\u00e4ndert. Nach sechs Jahren stabiler Wechselkurse wurde die EU in einen Hartw\u00e4hrungsblock unter der \\\"leadership\\\" der Deutschen Bundesbank und in die Weichw\u00e4hrungsl\u00e4nder gespalten. Zwischen 1992 und 1995 stieg der real-effektive Wechselkurs von Deutschland, Frankreich, den Niederlanden, Belgien, D\u00e4nemark und \u00d6sterreich um durchschnittlich 3% pro Jahr, jener der \u00fcbrigen EU-L\u00e4nder sank hingegen um 6% pro Jahr; gleichzeitig expandierten die Exporte der Abwertungsl\u00e4nder real um 9% pro Jahr, w\u00e4hrend jene des Hartw\u00e4hrungsblocks um nur 3% zunahmen. Da die Lohnst\u00fcckkosten in den Weichw\u00e4hrungsl\u00e4ndern nicht rascher steigen als im Hartw\u00e4hrungsblock, d\u00fcrften die Wechselkursverschiebungen seit 1992 die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung Europas auch noch in der n\u00e4chsten Zukunft beeinflussen.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Die monet\u00e4ren Rahmenbedingungen f\u00fcr Au\u00dfenhandel und Investitionen haben sich seit dem Zusammenbruch des Europ\u00e4ischen W\u00e4hrungssystems 1992\\\/93 nachhaltig ver\u00e4ndert. Nach sechs Jahren stabiler Wechselkurse wurde die EU in einen Hartw\u00e4hrungsblock unter der \\\"leadership\\\" der Deutschen Bundesbank und in die Weichw\u00e4hrungsl\u00e4nder gespalten. Zwischen 1992 und 1995 stieg der real-effektive Wechselkurs von Deutschland, Frankreich, den Niederlanden, Belgien, D\u00e4nemark und \u00d6sterreich um durchschnittlich 3% pro Jahr, jener der \u00fcbrigen EU-L\u00e4nder sank hingegen um 6% pro Jahr; gleichzeitig expandierten die Exporte der Abwertungsl\u00e4nder real um 9% pro Jahr, w\u00e4hrend jene des Hartw\u00e4hrungsblocks um nur 3% zunahmen. Da die Lohnst\u00fcckkosten in den Weichw\u00e4hrungsl\u00e4ndern nicht rascher steigen als im Hartw\u00e4hrungsblock, d\u00fcrften die Wechselkursverschiebungen seit 1992 die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung Europas auch noch in der n\u00e4chsten Zukunft beeinflussen.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Wechselkursregime und Wirtschaftsdynamik in der EU; Exchange Rate Regime and Economic Activity in the European Union<\\\/p><p>KW  - Wechselkursregime und Wirtschaftsdynamik in der EU; Exchange Rate Regime and Economic Activity in the European Union<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 69<\\\/p><p>SP  - 203<\\\/p><p>EP  - 215<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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