{"id":84069,"date":"2024-01-22T08:53:05","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T07:53:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/84069\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:41:58","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:41:58","slug":"divergenzen-im-internationalen-wachstumsprozess-mittelfristige-prognose-der-weltwirtschaft-bis-2000-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/84069\/","title":{"rendered":"Divergence in the International Growth Process. Medium-term Projections for the World Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-84069","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Over the next few years, the U.S. will attempt to reduce the budget deficit and unemployment by way of an expansive monetary policy, a goal that is likely to be achieved. Moreover, the U.S. will succeed in maintaining an undervalued exchange rate for the dollar. Under these circumstances, the U.S. economy might grow by 2\u00bd percent on average until the year 2000, \u00bd percentage point faster than the economies of Western Europe and Japan. The slowdown in economic growth since the middle of 1995 had the effect of raising budget deficits and unemployment in Western Europe. If fiscal policy responds to the deceleration with further cuts in government expenditures, there is a risk that the growth slowdown will deepen to a genuine recession. This can be expected to impede the integration process of the EU, because various countries might be tempted, more than now, to relieve their own problems through devaluations. This forecast is based on the assumption that the EU countries, through more intense cooperation, will succeed in avoiding a recession: the German Bundesbank will markedly lower key interest rates in the first half of 1996, facilitating a reduction in European interest rates; to combat unemployment, some specific measures might also be taken, such as stimulating investment in infrastructure. Under these assumptions, the economies of Western Europe might grow by 2 percent during the period 1996-2000. The Japanese economy will continue to expand at a much lower rate than in the 1970s and 1980s. Growth in exports and investment will be considerably weaker than in the past: the sustained overvaluation of the yen lowers the competitiveness of the Japanese economy not only vis-\u00e0-vis other industrialized countries but also vis-\u00e0-vis competitors in East Asia. Moreover, Japanese exports will suffer from the weakness of the European market. Over the forecast period, GDP in Japan is likely to grow by no more than 2 percent per year on average.","onlinedate":"1996-03-01 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19960301","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":275378,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"69","monthly_report_pages":"187-201","monthly_report_pages_sort":"187","issue":"3","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schulmeister, S.<\\\/span> (1996). <span>Divergenzen im internationalen Wachstumsproze\u00df. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2000<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>69<\\\/em>(3), 187-201. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/297\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/297<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schulmeister S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Divergenzen im internationalen Wachstumsproze\u00df. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2000<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1996 Mar;69(3):187-201.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{72b874aa8f924649af3d3be5bb268809,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Divergenzen im internationalen Wachstumsproze{\\\\ss}. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2000\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Die seit Anfang der neunziger Jahre unterschiedliche Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den USA, in Westeuropa und Japan wird auch die kommenden f{\\\\\\\"u}nf Jahre pr{\\\\\\\"a}gen. Beg{\\\\\\\"u}nstigt durch eine starke Unterbewertung des Dollars werden Exporte, Investitionen und Gesamtproduktion in den USA bis 2000 um etwa 2\u00bd\\\\% pro Jahr wachsen. In der EU hat sich die Spaltung in einen {\\\"}Hartw{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsblock{\\\"} und die Weichw{\\\\\\\"a}hrungsl{\\\\\\\"a}nder seit dem Zusammenbruch des EWS 1992\\\/93 vertieft, gleichzeitig verfolgen alle L{\\\\\\\"a}nder eine gleichschrittig restriktive Fiskalpolitik. Beide Faktoren lassen das Wachstum in Westeuropa bis 1998 auf 1\u00bd\\\\% sinken. Trotz eines danach einsetzenden Aufschwungs wird die westeurop{\\\\\\\"a}ische Wirtschaft bis 2000 um nur knapp 2\\\\% pro Jahr expandieren. Die drastische {\\\\\\\"U}berbewertung des Yen d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte die japanischen Exporte und Investitionen auch in den kommenden Jahren d{\\\\\\\"a}mpfen, die Gesamtproduktion wird daher in Japan um nur etwa 2\\\\% pro Jahr zunehmen und damit weiterhin langsamer als bis Ende der achtziger Jahre.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Divergenzen im internationalen Wachstumsproze{\\\\ss}. Mittelfristprognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2000; Divergence in the International Growth Process. Medium-term Projections for the World Economy\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stephan Schulmeister\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1996\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = mar,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"69\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"187--201\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Divergenzen im internationalen Wachstumsproze\u00df. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2000<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schulmeister, Stephan<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1996\\\/3<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1996\\\/3<\\\/p><p>N2  - Die seit Anfang der neunziger Jahre unterschiedliche Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den USA, in Westeuropa und Japan wird auch die kommenden f\u00fcnf Jahre pr\u00e4gen. Beg\u00fcnstigt durch eine starke Unterbewertung des Dollars werden Exporte, Investitionen und Gesamtproduktion in den USA bis 2000 um etwa 2\u00bd% pro Jahr wachsen. In der EU hat sich die Spaltung in einen \\\"Hartw\u00e4hrungsblock\\\" und die Weichw\u00e4hrungsl\u00e4nder seit dem Zusammenbruch des EWS 1992\\\/93 vertieft, gleichzeitig verfolgen alle L\u00e4nder eine gleichschrittig restriktive Fiskalpolitik. Beide Faktoren lassen das Wachstum in Westeuropa bis 1998 auf 1\u00bd% sinken. Trotz eines danach einsetzenden Aufschwungs wird die westeurop\u00e4ische Wirtschaft bis 2000 um nur knapp 2% pro Jahr expandieren. Die drastische \u00dcberbewertung des Yen d\u00fcrfte die japanischen Exporte und Investitionen auch in den kommenden Jahren d\u00e4mpfen, die Gesamtproduktion wird daher in Japan um nur etwa 2% pro Jahr zunehmen und damit weiterhin langsamer als bis Ende der achtziger Jahre.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Die seit Anfang der neunziger Jahre unterschiedliche Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den USA, in Westeuropa und Japan wird auch die kommenden f\u00fcnf Jahre pr\u00e4gen. Beg\u00fcnstigt durch eine starke Unterbewertung des Dollars werden Exporte, Investitionen und Gesamtproduktion in den USA bis 2000 um etwa 2\u00bd% pro Jahr wachsen. In der EU hat sich die Spaltung in einen \\\"Hartw\u00e4hrungsblock\\\" und die Weichw\u00e4hrungsl\u00e4nder seit dem Zusammenbruch des EWS 1992\\\/93 vertieft, gleichzeitig verfolgen alle L\u00e4nder eine gleichschrittig restriktive Fiskalpolitik. Beide Faktoren lassen das Wachstum in Westeuropa bis 1998 auf 1\u00bd% sinken. Trotz eines danach einsetzenden Aufschwungs wird die westeurop\u00e4ische Wirtschaft bis 2000 um nur knapp 2% pro Jahr expandieren. Die drastische \u00dcberbewertung des Yen d\u00fcrfte die japanischen Exporte und Investitionen auch in den kommenden Jahren d\u00e4mpfen, die Gesamtproduktion wird daher in Japan um nur etwa 2% pro Jahr zunehmen und damit weiterhin langsamer als bis Ende der achtziger Jahre.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Divergenzen im internationalen Wachstumsproze\u00df. Mittelfristprognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2000; Divergence in the International Growth Process. Medium-term Projections for the World Economy<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 69<\\\/p><p>SP  - 187<\\\/p><p>EP  - 201<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Divergence in the International Growth Process. 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