{"id":83647,"date":"2024-01-22T08:49:48","date_gmt":"2024-01-22T07:49:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/83647\/"},"modified":"2024-11-06T23:38:27","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T22:38:27","slug":"wachstum-in-osteuropa-weiterer-rueckgang-in-der-gus-die-wirtschaft-der-oststaaten-1994-95","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/83647\/","title":{"rendered":"Improved Prospects of Central and Eastern Europe contrast with Depression in the CIS"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-83647","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) show encouraging signs of recovery and are all more or less clearly emerging from transformational recession. In 1994, for the first time since the start of transformation, all these countries recorded positive GDP growth (about 4% on a regional average), declining inflation and slightly declining (though high) unemployment. 1994 was the first year of economic growth after the collapse of the old system in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Bulgaria (Poland, Slovenia and Romania had resumed growth in 1992 and 1993 already). In sharp contrast, all republics of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) still remain in deep depression and have not overcome the twin crisis resulting from the collapse of the command system and the disintegration of the USSR. In the CIS, GDP declined by another 16% in 1994, for the fifth consecutive year already, inflation \u2013 though declining somewhat as well \u2013 remains at three-digit annual levels (650% on average), and the overall economic, legal and political situation is inflicted with extremely high uncertainties. The CEECs' growth has resulted from a strong upturn in industry (growth by 8% in 1994 on average), especially in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia, and from a further expansion of services. There is some encouraging evidence of industrial restructuring and improved efficiency, again mostly in Poland, Hungary and in Slovenia. Such evidence includes strong labour productivity improvements, rising profits and, last but not least, growing exports. Significantly, the return to growth has not brought increased inflation. On the contrary, inflation has dropped further in most CEECs, but nowhere to single-digit annual numbers. Consumer prices have been rising faster than producer prices. Except for Bulgaria, Slovakia and Hungary, the CEECs' budget deficits were not excessively high. Economic prospects for most CEECs are now reasonably good \u2013 certainly much better than a year ago. However, growth will accelerate in 1995 only in the Czech Republic; in Poland and in Slovenia it will stay at last year's high level. On the other hand, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania will not maintain their 1994 growth performance. The CIS economies remain depressed and the individual republics cannot yet be ranked according to their growth prospects, but rather in terms of GDP decline and the scale of instability.","onlinedate":"1995-05-01 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"19950501","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Wachstum in Osteuropa\",\"weiterer R\u00fcckgang in der GUS. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1994\/95; Improved Prospects of Central and Eastern Europe contrast with Depression in the CIS\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":275024,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"68","monthly_report_pages":"356-375","monthly_report_pages_sort":"356","issue":"5","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[15705,13585],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":15705,\"personName\":\"Peter Havlik\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":13585,\"personName\":\"et al.\",\"organisationNames\":[\"The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies\"]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\">Havlik, P., &amp; et al. (1995). <span>Wachstum in Osteuropa, weiterer R\u00fcckgang in der GUS. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1994\\\/95<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>68<\\\/em>(5), 356-375. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/181\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/181<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\">Havlik P, et al. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Wachstum in Osteuropa, weiterer R\u00fcckgang in der GUS. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1994\\\/95<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 1995 May;68(5):356-375.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{29d22c8fc8c44e1c8f9b48ad662dfec0,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Wachstum in Osteuropa, weiterer R{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang in der GUS. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1994\\\/95\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Die Transformationskrise ist in Ost-Mitteleuropa bereits {\\\\\\\"u}berwunden, die Wirtschaft der Region wuchs 1994 um 3\\\\% bis 4\\\\% bei sinkender Inflation und konstanter Arbeitslosigkeit. Ein {\\\\\\\"a}hnliches Wachstum wird sowohl f{\\\\\\\"u}r 1995 als auch f{\\\\\\\"u}r 1996 prognostiziert. Die gute Konjunktur wird sich in Polen und Slowenien fortsetzen bzw. in Tschechien festigen. In Ungarn ist heuer eine Wachstumsverlangsamung unvermeidlich. Ebenso wird die Slowakei kurzfristig nicht imstande sein, die au{\\\\ss}erordentlich gute Wirtschaftsleistung des Jahres 1994 zu wiederholen. Auch in Bulgarien und Rum{\\\\\\\"a}nien f{\\\\\\\"a}llt das Wachstum schwach aus. In der GUS ist noch kein Ende der Krise in Sicht. F{\\\\\\\"u}r Ru{\\\\ss}land und die Ukraine wird 1995 ein weiterer \u2013 wenn auch etwas milderer \u2013 R{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang des BIP um bis zu 10\\\\% erwartet, die Inflation wird mit dreistelligen Jahresraten au{\\\\ss}erordentlich hoch bleiben.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Wachstum in Osteuropa, weiterer R{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang in der GUS. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1994\\\/95; Improved Prospects of Central and Eastern Europe contrast with Depression in the CIS, Wachstum in Osteuropa, weiterer R{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang in der GUS. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1994\\\/95; Improved Prospects of Central and Eastern Europe contrast with Depression in the CIS\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Peter Havlik and \\\\{et al.\\\\}\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"1995\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = may,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"68\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"356--375\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Wachstum in Osteuropa, weiterer R\u00fcckgang in der GUS. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1994\\\/95<\\\/p><p>AU  - Havlik, Peter<\\\/p><p>AU  - et al., null<\\\/p><p>PY  - 1995\\\/5<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 1995\\\/5<\\\/p><p>N2  - Die Transformationskrise ist in Ost-Mitteleuropa bereits \u00fcberwunden, die Wirtschaft der Region wuchs 1994 um 3% bis 4% bei sinkender Inflation und konstanter Arbeitslosigkeit. Ein \u00e4hnliches Wachstum wird sowohl f\u00fcr 1995 als auch f\u00fcr 1996 prognostiziert. Die gute Konjunktur wird sich in Polen und Slowenien fortsetzen bzw. in Tschechien festigen. In Ungarn ist heuer eine Wachstumsverlangsamung unvermeidlich. Ebenso wird die Slowakei kurzfristig nicht imstande sein, die au\u00dferordentlich gute Wirtschaftsleistung des Jahres 1994 zu wiederholen. Auch in Bulgarien und Rum\u00e4nien f\u00e4llt das Wachstum schwach aus. In der GUS ist noch kein Ende der Krise in Sicht. F\u00fcr Ru\u00dfland und die Ukraine wird 1995 ein weiterer \u2013 wenn auch etwas milderer \u2013 R\u00fcckgang des BIP um bis zu 10% erwartet, die Inflation wird mit dreistelligen Jahresraten au\u00dferordentlich hoch bleiben.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Die Transformationskrise ist in Ost-Mitteleuropa bereits \u00fcberwunden, die Wirtschaft der Region wuchs 1994 um 3% bis 4% bei sinkender Inflation und konstanter Arbeitslosigkeit. Ein \u00e4hnliches Wachstum wird sowohl f\u00fcr 1995 als auch f\u00fcr 1996 prognostiziert. Die gute Konjunktur wird sich in Polen und Slowenien fortsetzen bzw. in Tschechien festigen. In Ungarn ist heuer eine Wachstumsverlangsamung unvermeidlich. Ebenso wird die Slowakei kurzfristig nicht imstande sein, die au\u00dferordentlich gute Wirtschaftsleistung des Jahres 1994 zu wiederholen. Auch in Bulgarien und Rum\u00e4nien f\u00e4llt das Wachstum schwach aus. In der GUS ist noch kein Ende der Krise in Sicht. F\u00fcr Ru\u00dfland und die Ukraine wird 1995 ein weiterer \u2013 wenn auch etwas milderer \u2013 R\u00fcckgang des BIP um bis zu 10% erwartet, die Inflation wird mit dreistelligen Jahresraten au\u00dferordentlich hoch bleiben.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Wachstum in Osteuropa<\\\/p><p>KW  - weiterer R\u00fcckgang in der GUS. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1994\\\/95; Improved Prospects of Central and Eastern Europe contrast with Depression in the CIS<\\\/p><p>KW  - Wachstum in Osteuropa<\\\/p><p>KW  - weiterer R\u00fcckgang in der GUS. Die Wirtschaft der Oststaaten 1994\\\/95; Improved Prospects of Central and Eastern Europe contrast with Depression in the CIS<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 68<\\\/p><p>SP  - 356<\\\/p><p>EP  - 375<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Improved Prospects of Central and Eastern Europe contrast with Depression in the CIS - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/83647\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Improved Prospects of Central and Eastern Europe contrast with Depression in the CIS\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/83647\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-06T22:38:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/83647\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/83647\\\/\",\"name\":\"Improved Prospects of Central and Eastern Europe contrast with Depression in the CIS - 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