{"id":70501,"date":"2023-12-02T07:40:13","date_gmt":"2023-12-02T06:40:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/prognose-der-baukostenentwicklung-in-oesterreich-bis-2023\/"},"modified":"2025-01-10T11:36:49","modified_gmt":"2025-01-10T10:36:49","slug":"prognose-der-baukostenentwicklung-in-oesterreich-bis-2023","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/70501\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast of Construction Cost Development in Austria Until 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-70501","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"In 2021 and 2022, the Austrian construction industry recorded the strongest cost increases since the 1970s. The aim of this analysis is to forecast the development of construction costs in Austria for the years 2022 and 2023, separately for the three sub-indices. First, the central cost drivers are identified by means of an analysis of the sub-components of the construction cost indices. The futures and spot prices for the raw materials steel and oil, which are particularly significant for the current development of construction costs, are then used for a model-based forecast. In addition to a normal scenario, a risk scenario is also calculated, which is based on an unfavourable commodity price development.","onlinedate":"2022-10-07 14:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20220901","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"19","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":420309,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"","journal":"","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2022-10-07 14:00:00","types":[81966],"research_groups":[3481,3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3731,3641,4155],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3731,\"personName\":\"Michael Klien\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":4155,\"personName\":\"Michael Weing\u00e4rtler\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[10726],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_bookanthology rendering_apa rendering_bookanthology_apa\\\"><span>Klien, M.<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski, S.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Weing\u00e4rtler, M.<\\\/span> (2022). <span><em>Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in \u00d6sterreich bis 2023<\\\/em><\\\/span>. WIFO.<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_bookanthology rendering_vancouver rendering_bookanthology_vancouver\\\"><span>Klien M<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski S<\\\/span><span>, Weing\u00e4rtler M<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in \u00d6sterreich bis 2023<\\\/span><\\\/span>. WIFO; 2022.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_bookanthology rendering_bibtex rendering_bookanthology_bibtex\\\"><div>@book{e7700c69786548e2b63f9f6c338bf083,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich bis 2023\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Das {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichische Bauwesen verzeichnete in den Jahren 2021 und 2022 die st{\\\\\\\"a}rksten Kostensteigerungen seit den 1970er-Jahren. Ziel der vorliegenden Analyse ist die Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich f{\\\\\\\"u}r die Jahre 2022 und 2023, getrennt f{\\\\\\\"u}r die drei Teilindizes. Zun{\\\\\\\"a}chst werden daf{\\\\\\\"u}r die zentralen Kostentreiber mittels einer Analyse der Subkomponenten der Baukostenindizes identifiziert. Die Futures und Spot-Preise f{\\\\\\\"u}r die Rohstoffe Stahl und {\\\\\\\"O}l, welche besonders bedeutsam f{\\\\\\\"u}r die aktuelle Baukostenentwicklung sind, werden anschlie{\\\\ss}end f{\\\\\\\"u}r eine modellgest{\\\\\\\"u}tzte Prognose herangezogen. Zus{\\\\\\\"a}tzlich zu einem Normalszenario wird auch eine Risikoszenario berechnet, welches auf einer ung{\\\\\\\"u}nstigeren Rohstoffpreisentwicklung basiert.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Prognose, Baukosten, Prognose, Baukosten, Prognose, Baukosten, Prognose, Baukosten\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Michael Klien and Serguei Kaniovski and Michael Weing{\\\\\\\"a}rtler\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich bis 2023\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2022\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = sep,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_bookanthology rendering_ris rendering_bookanthology_ris\\\"><p>TY  - BOOK<\\\/p><p>T1  - Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in \u00d6sterreich bis 2023<\\\/p><p>AU  - Klien, Michael<\\\/p><p>AU  - Kaniovski, Serguei<\\\/p><p>AU  - Weing\u00e4rtler, Michael<\\\/p><p>N1  - Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in \u00d6sterreich bis 2023<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2022\\\/9<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2022\\\/9<\\\/p><p>N2  - Das \u00f6sterreichische Bauwesen verzeichnete in den Jahren 2021 und 2022 die st\u00e4rksten Kostensteigerungen seit den 1970er-Jahren. Ziel der vorliegenden Analyse ist die Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in \u00d6sterreich f\u00fcr die Jahre 2022 und 2023, getrennt f\u00fcr die drei Teilindizes. Zun\u00e4chst werden daf\u00fcr die zentralen Kostentreiber mittels einer Analyse der Subkomponenten der Baukostenindizes identifiziert. Die Futures und Spot-Preise f\u00fcr die Rohstoffe Stahl und \u00d6l, welche besonders bedeutsam f\u00fcr die aktuelle Baukostenentwicklung sind, werden anschlie\u00dfend f\u00fcr eine modellgest\u00fctzte Prognose herangezogen. Zus\u00e4tzlich zu einem Normalszenario wird auch eine Risikoszenario berechnet, welches auf einer ung\u00fcnstigeren Rohstoffpreisentwicklung basiert.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Das \u00f6sterreichische Bauwesen verzeichnete in den Jahren 2021 und 2022 die st\u00e4rksten Kostensteigerungen seit den 1970er-Jahren. Ziel der vorliegenden Analyse ist die Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in \u00d6sterreich f\u00fcr die Jahre 2022 und 2023, getrennt f\u00fcr die drei Teilindizes. Zun\u00e4chst werden daf\u00fcr die zentralen Kostentreiber mittels einer Analyse der Subkomponenten der Baukostenindizes identifiziert. Die Futures und Spot-Preise f\u00fcr die Rohstoffe Stahl und \u00d6l, welche besonders bedeutsam f\u00fcr die aktuelle Baukostenentwicklung sind, werden anschlie\u00dfend f\u00fcr eine modellgest\u00fctzte Prognose herangezogen. Zus\u00e4tzlich zu einem Normalszenario wird auch eine Risikoszenario berechnet, welches auf einer ung\u00fcnstigeren Rohstoffpreisentwicklung basiert.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Prognose, Baukosten, Prognose, Baukosten<\\\/p><p>KW  - Prognose, Baukosten, Prognose, Baukosten<\\\/p><p>M3  - Studie<\\\/p><p>BT  - Prognose der Baukostenentwicklung in \u00d6sterreich bis 2023<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[\"Czaloun Astrid\"]","scientific_review":"[\"Ederer Stefan\"]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast of Construction Cost Development in Austria Until 2023 - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/70501\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast of Construction Cost Development in Austria Until 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/70501\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-01-10T10:36:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/70501\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/70501\\\/\",\"name\":\"Forecast of Construction Cost Development in Austria Until 2023 - 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