{"id":69035,"date":"2023-12-02T07:21:35","date_gmt":"2023-12-02T06:21:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/cutting-through-the-value-chain-the-long-run-effects-of-decoupling-the-east-from-the-west-2\/"},"modified":"2024-08-06T09:37:45","modified_gmt":"2024-08-06T07:37:45","slug":"cutting-through-the-value-chain-the-long-run-effects-of-decoupling-the-east-from-the-west-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/69035\/","title":{"rendered":"Cutting Through the Value Chain: The Long-run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-69035","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the USA on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of doubling non-tariff barriers \u2013 both unilateral and reciprocal \u2013 between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing trade barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turning away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter's smaller relative size.","onlinedate":"2022-03-03 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20220301","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"38","keywords":"[\"Trade\",\"non-tariff barriers\",\"global value chains\",\"quantitative trade model\",\"China\",\"Russia\",\"European Union\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[\"e09e7ce2-f6fe-47b3-bef7-d74a8041d8b1\"]","pdf":270297,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"644","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2022-03-03 12:00:00","types":[44410],"research_groups":[],"collaboration":"","persons":[4986,17613,17327],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4986,\"personName\":\"Gabriel Felbermayr\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":17613,\"personName\":\"Hendrik Mahlkow\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":17327,\"personName\":\"Alexander Sandkamp\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[41243],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Felbermayr, G.<\\\/span>, Mahlkow, H., &amp; Sandkamp, A. (2022). <span>Cutting Through the Value Chain: The Long-run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (644).<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Felbermayr G<\\\/span>, Mahlkow H, Sandkamp A. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Cutting Through the Value Chain: The Long-run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2022 Mar;(644).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{1828cebf924d40cbb6f79a4054cc21b9,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Cutting Through the Value Chain: The Long-run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the USA on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of doubling non-tariff barriers \u2013 both unilateral and reciprocal \u2013 between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing trade barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turning away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter's smaller relative size.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Trade, non-tariff barriers, global value chains, quantitative trade model, China, Russia, European Union, Trade, non-tariff barriers, global value chains, quantitative trade model, China, Russia, European Union\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Gabriel Felbermayr and Hendrik Mahlkow and Alexander Sandkamp\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Cutting Through the Value Chain: The Long-run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2022\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = mar,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Cutting Through the Value Chain: The Long-run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West<\\\/p><p>AU  - Felbermayr, Gabriel<\\\/p><p>AU  - Mahlkow, Hendrik<\\\/p><p>AU  - Sandkamp, Alexander<\\\/p><p>N1  - Cutting Through the Value Chain: The Long-run Effects of Decoupling the East from the West<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2022\\\/3<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2022\\\/3<\\\/p><p>N2  - With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the USA on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of doubling non-tariff barriers \u2013 both unilateral and reciprocal \u2013 between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing trade barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turning away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter's smaller relative size.<\\\/p><p>AB  - With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the USA on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of doubling non-tariff barriers \u2013 both unilateral and reciprocal \u2013 between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing trade barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turning away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter's smaller relative size.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Trade<\\\/p><p>KW  - non-tariff barriers<\\\/p><p>KW  - global value chains<\\\/p><p>KW  - quantitative trade model<\\\/p><p>KW  - China<\\\/p><p>KW  - Russia<\\\/p><p>KW  - European Union<\\\/p><p>KW  - Trade<\\\/p><p>KW  - non-tariff barriers<\\\/p><p>KW  - global value chains<\\\/p><p>KW  - quantitative trade model<\\\/p><p>KW  - China<\\\/p><p>KW  - Russia<\\\/p><p>KW  - European Union<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - 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