{"id":56177,"date":"2023-12-01T18:56:27","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T17:56:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/verzoegerte-erholung-bei-erneutem-lockdown-prognose-fuer-2021-und-2022\/"},"modified":"2024-04-22T19:05:53","modified_gmt":"2024-04-22T17:05:53","slug":"verzoegerte-erholung-bei-erneutem-lockdown-prognose-fuer-2021-und-2022","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/56177\/","title":{"rendered":"Delayed Recovery in Case of Renewed Lockdown. Economic Outlook for 2021 and 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-56177","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Economic activity is currently heavily dependent on the measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. To frame the range of future economic development, this forecast outlines two scenarios: in the opening scenario, the restrictions are completely lifted in the course of spring. The lockdown scenario, on the other hand, assumes a renewed closure of retail and personal services in April 2021. In the first scenario, economic activity picks up already in spring, with GDP expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2021 and 4.3 percent in 2022. In the lockdown scenario the recovery is delayed, with growth of 1.5 percent in 2021 and 4.7 percent in 2022. Private consumption and travel are still weaker in 2022 than before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the labour market the crisis will remain visible for some time.","onlinedate":"2021-05-06 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20210401","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Konjunkturprognose\"]","jelcodes":"[\"E32\",\"E66\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":259558,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"94","monthly_report_pages":"265-278","monthly_report_pages_sort":"265","issue":"4","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2021-05-06 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3567],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3567,\"personName\":\"Stefan Ederer\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Ederer, S.<\\\/span> (2021). <span>Verz\u00f6gerte Erholung bei erneutem Lockdown. Prognose f\u00fcr 2021 und 2022<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>94<\\\/em>(4), 265-278. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/67132\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/67132<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Ederer S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Verz\u00f6gerte Erholung bei erneutem Lockdown. Prognose f\u00fcr 2021 und 2022<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2021 Apr;94(4):265-278.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{67038ff0cfa14c9ca90c77c384a49017,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Verz{\\\\\\\"o}gerte Erholung bei erneutem Lockdown. Prognose f{\\\\\\\"u}r 2021 und 2022\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Die wirtschaftliche Aktivit{\\\\\\\"a}t h{\\\\\\\"a}ngt gegenw{\\\\\\\"a}rtig stark von den Ma{\\\\ss}nahmen zur Eind{\\\\\\\"a}mmung der COVID-19-Pandemie ab. Um die Bandbreite der k{\\\\\\\"u}nftigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung einzugrenzen, entwirft die vorliegende Prognose zwei Szenarien: Im {\\\\\\\"O}ffnungsszenario werden die Einschr{\\\\\\\"a}nkungen im Laufe des Fr{\\\\\\\"u}hjahrs vollst{\\\\\\\"a}ndig aufgehoben. Das Lockdown-Szenario geht dagegen von einer neuerlichen Schlie{\\\\ss}ung des Handels und der personennahen Dienstleistungen im April 2021 aus. Im ersten Szenario kommt die Wirtschaft bereits im Fr{\\\\\\\"u}hjahr wieder in Schwung, das BIP d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte 2021 um 2,3\\\\% und 2022 um 4,3\\\\% wachsen. Im Lockdown-Szenario verz{\\\\\\\"o}gert sich die Erholung, der Zuwachs betr{\\\\\\\"a}gt 2021 1,5\\\\% und 2022 4,7\\\\%. Privater Konsum und Reiseverkehr sind auch 2022 noch schw{\\\\\\\"a}cher als vor der COVID-19-Pandemie. Auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird die Krise noch l{\\\\\\\"a}ngere Zeit sichtbar bleiben.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Konjunkturprognose, Konjunkturprognose\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stefan Ederer\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Konjunkturprognose\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2021\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = apr,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"94\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"265--278\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Verz\u00f6gerte Erholung bei erneutem Lockdown. Prognose f\u00fcr 2021 und 2022<\\\/p><p>AU  - Ederer, Stefan<\\\/p><p>N1  - Konjunkturprognose<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2021\\\/4<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2021\\\/4<\\\/p><p>N2  - Die wirtschaftliche Aktivit\u00e4t h\u00e4ngt gegenw\u00e4rtig stark von den Ma\u00dfnahmen zur Eind\u00e4mmung der COVID-19-Pandemie ab. Um die Bandbreite der k\u00fcnftigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung einzugrenzen, entwirft die vorliegende Prognose zwei Szenarien: Im \u00d6ffnungsszenario werden die Einschr\u00e4nkungen im Laufe des Fr\u00fchjahrs vollst\u00e4ndig aufgehoben. Das Lockdown-Szenario geht dagegen von einer neuerlichen Schlie\u00dfung des Handels und der personennahen Dienstleistungen im April 2021 aus. Im ersten Szenario kommt die Wirtschaft bereits im Fr\u00fchjahr wieder in Schwung, das BIP d\u00fcrfte 2021 um 2,3% und 2022 um 4,3% wachsen. Im Lockdown-Szenario verz\u00f6gert sich die Erholung, der Zuwachs betr\u00e4gt 2021 1,5% und 2022 4,7%. Privater Konsum und Reiseverkehr sind auch 2022 noch schw\u00e4cher als vor der COVID-19-Pandemie. Auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird die Krise noch l\u00e4ngere Zeit sichtbar bleiben.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Die wirtschaftliche Aktivit\u00e4t h\u00e4ngt gegenw\u00e4rtig stark von den Ma\u00dfnahmen zur Eind\u00e4mmung der COVID-19-Pandemie ab. Um die Bandbreite der k\u00fcnftigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung einzugrenzen, entwirft die vorliegende Prognose zwei Szenarien: Im \u00d6ffnungsszenario werden die Einschr\u00e4nkungen im Laufe des Fr\u00fchjahrs vollst\u00e4ndig aufgehoben. Das Lockdown-Szenario geht dagegen von einer neuerlichen Schlie\u00dfung des Handels und der personennahen Dienstleistungen im April 2021 aus. Im ersten Szenario kommt die Wirtschaft bereits im Fr\u00fchjahr wieder in Schwung, das BIP d\u00fcrfte 2021 um 2,3% und 2022 um 4,3% wachsen. Im Lockdown-Szenario verz\u00f6gert sich die Erholung, der Zuwachs betr\u00e4gt 2021 1,5% und 2022 4,7%. Privater Konsum und Reiseverkehr sind auch 2022 noch schw\u00e4cher als vor der COVID-19-Pandemie. Auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird die Krise noch l\u00e4ngere Zeit sichtbar bleiben.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Konjunkturprognose<\\\/p><p>KW  - Konjunkturprognose<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 94<\\\/p><p>SP  - 265<\\\/p><p>EP  - 278<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[\"Czaloun Astrid\",\"Steiner Martha\"]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Delayed Recovery in Case of Renewed Lockdown. 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