{"id":55593,"date":"2023-12-01T18:47:30","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T17:47:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/kompensation-hoher-wertschoepfungseinbussen-prognose-fuer-2020-bis-2022\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T06:24:37","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T05:24:37","slug":"kompensation-hoher-wertschoepfungseinbussen-prognose-fuer-2020-bis-2022","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/55593\/","title":{"rendered":"Compensation of High Economic Losses. Economic Outlook for 2020 to 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-55593","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"In the summer of 2020, economic recovery in Austria was extraordinarily strong, even by international standards. The second lockdown depresses economic activity again in 2020, but \u2013 since industry is less affected \u2013 by less than the first. Overall, real GDP fell by 7.3 percent in 2020 and unemployment rose by one-third despite the use of COVID-19 short-time work. Without a further lockdown (\"no policy change\"), GDP is expected to grow by 4.5 percent in 2021; and by 2.5 percent with a third lockdown. Upcoming winter tourism in particular will be severely curtailed due to the ongoing travel warnings, or even fully cancelled. Only in the warmer season and with the vaccination coverage of the population can social and economic activities return to normal. In any case, unemployment will remain above the pre-crisis level in 2022.","onlinedate":"2021-01-28 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20210101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Konjunkturprognose\"]","jelcodes":"[\"E32\",\"E66\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":386164,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"94","monthly_report_pages":"25-38","monthly_report_pages_sort":"25","issue":"1","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2021-01-28 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3865],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3865,\"personName\":\"Stefan Schiman\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Schiman, S.<\\\/span> (2021). <span>Kompensation hoher Wertsch\u00f6pfungseinbu\u00dfen. Prognose f\u00fcr 2020 bis 2022<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>94<\\\/em>(1), 25-38. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/66830\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/66830<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Schiman S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Kompensation hoher Wertsch\u00f6pfungseinbu\u00dfen. Prognose f\u00fcr 2020 bis 2022<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2021 Jan;94(1):25-38.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{f4b77b963c3d46d3ac7995750c6928cb,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Kompensation hoher Wertsch{\\\\\\\"o}pfungseinbu{\\\\ss}en. Prognose f{\\\\\\\"u}r 2020 bis 2022\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Die Konjunktur erholte sich im Sommer 2020 in {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich auch im internationalen Vergleich au{\\\\ss}erordentlich kr{\\\\\\\"a}ftig. Der zweite Lockdown dr{\\\\\\\"u}ckt die Wirtschaftsaktivit{\\\\\\\"a}t 2020 wieder, aber \u2013 da die Industrie weniger betroffen ist \u2013 schw{\\\\\\\"a}cher als der erste. Insgesamt sank das reale BIP 2020 um 7,3\\\\%, und die Arbeitslosigkeit stieg trotz der Inanspruchnahme der COVID-19-Kurzarbeit um ein Drittel. Ohne weiteren Lockdown ({\\\"}No Policy Change{\\\"}) d{\\\\\\\"u}rfte das BIP 2021 um 4,5\\\\% wachsen, mit einem dritten Lockdown um 2,5\\\\%. Insbesondere der Wintertourismus wird aufgrund der anhaltenden Reisewarnungen in der bevorstehenden Saison empfindlich eingeschr{\\\\\\\"a}nkt bzw. f{\\\\\\\"a}llt aus. Erst in der w{\\\\\\\"a}rmeren Jahreszeit und mit der Durchimpfung der Bev{\\\\\\\"o}lkerung k{\\\\\\\"o}nnen sich die gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Aktivit{\\\\\\\"a}ten wieder normalisieren. Die Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt 2022 jedenfalls {\\\\\\\"u}ber dem Vorkrisenniveau.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Konjunkturprognose, Konjunkturprognose\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Stefan Schiman\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Konjunkturprognose\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2021\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jan,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"94\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"25--38\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Kompensation hoher Wertsch\u00f6pfungseinbu\u00dfen. Prognose f\u00fcr 2020 bis 2022<\\\/p><p>AU  - Schiman, Stefan<\\\/p><p>N1  - Konjunkturprognose<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2021\\\/1<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2021\\\/1<\\\/p><p>N2  - Die Konjunktur erholte sich im Sommer 2020 in \u00d6sterreich auch im internationalen Vergleich au\u00dferordentlich kr\u00e4ftig. Der zweite Lockdown dr\u00fcckt die Wirtschaftsaktivit\u00e4t 2020 wieder, aber \u2013 da die Industrie weniger betroffen ist \u2013 schw\u00e4cher als der erste. Insgesamt sank das reale BIP 2020 um 7,3%, und die Arbeitslosigkeit stieg trotz der Inanspruchnahme der COVID-19-Kurzarbeit um ein Drittel. Ohne weiteren Lockdown (\\\"No Policy Change\\\") d\u00fcrfte das BIP 2021 um 4,5% wachsen, mit einem dritten Lockdown um 2,5%. Insbesondere der Wintertourismus wird aufgrund der anhaltenden Reisewarnungen in der bevorstehenden Saison empfindlich eingeschr\u00e4nkt bzw. f\u00e4llt aus. Erst in der w\u00e4rmeren Jahreszeit und mit der Durchimpfung der Bev\u00f6lkerung k\u00f6nnen sich die gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Aktivit\u00e4ten wieder normalisieren. Die Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt 2022 jedenfalls \u00fcber dem Vorkrisenniveau.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Die Konjunktur erholte sich im Sommer 2020 in \u00d6sterreich auch im internationalen Vergleich au\u00dferordentlich kr\u00e4ftig. Der zweite Lockdown dr\u00fcckt die Wirtschaftsaktivit\u00e4t 2020 wieder, aber \u2013 da die Industrie weniger betroffen ist \u2013 schw\u00e4cher als der erste. Insgesamt sank das reale BIP 2020 um 7,3%, und die Arbeitslosigkeit stieg trotz der Inanspruchnahme der COVID-19-Kurzarbeit um ein Drittel. Ohne weiteren Lockdown (\\\"No Policy Change\\\") d\u00fcrfte das BIP 2021 um 4,5% wachsen, mit einem dritten Lockdown um 2,5%. Insbesondere der Wintertourismus wird aufgrund der anhaltenden Reisewarnungen in der bevorstehenden Saison empfindlich eingeschr\u00e4nkt bzw. f\u00e4llt aus. Erst in der w\u00e4rmeren Jahreszeit und mit der Durchimpfung der Bev\u00f6lkerung k\u00f6nnen sich die gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Aktivit\u00e4ten wieder normalisieren. Die Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt 2022 jedenfalls \u00fcber dem Vorkrisenniveau.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Konjunkturprognose<\\\/p><p>KW  - Konjunkturprognose<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 94<\\\/p><p>SP  - 25<\\\/p><p>EP  - 38<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Compensation of High Economic Losses. 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