{"id":55289,"date":"2023-12-01T18:43:49","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T17:43:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/hochfrequente-konjunkturbeobachtung\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T06:22:23","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T05:22:23","slug":"hochfrequente-konjunkturbeobachtung","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/55289\/","title":{"rendered":"High-frequency Business Cycle Monitoring"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-55289","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"In this study we collect a large number of high-frequency indicators and analyse their informational content with respect to the activity of the Austrian economy. This is done by cross-correlating these and other commonly used indicators for different reference series, including GDP, manufacturing, construction, parts of the service sector, investments, consumption, imports and exports. Based on these findings, we specify dynamic factor models (DFM) for the reference series. This allows for a real-time assessment and forecast of GDP through both a direct (Weekly WIFO Economic Index \u2013 WWWI) and an indirect approach (Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models \u2013 CDFM). A selection of high-frequency indicators is also available via the IHS Economic High-Frequency Monitor.","onlinedate":"2020-10-23 00:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20201001","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"75","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":385141,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"","journal":"","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2020-10-23 00:00:00","types":[81966],"research_groups":[3500,3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[3872,3822,3543,3641,13835,15485],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3872,\"personName\":\"Sandra Bilek-Steindl\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3822,\"personName\":\"Julia Bock-Schappelwein\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3543,\"personName\":\"Christian Glocker\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":13835,\"personName\":\"Sebastian Koch\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":15485,\"personName\":\"Richard Sellner\",\"organisationNames\":[\"IHS\"]}]","clients":[10654],"subclients":[],"partners":[8870,8871],"topics":[41281],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_bookanthology rendering_apa rendering_bookanthology_apa\\\"><span>Bilek-Steindl, S.<\\\/span><span>, Bock-Schappelwein, J.<\\\/span><span>, Glocker, C.<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski, S.<\\\/span>, Koch, S., &amp; Sellner, R. (2020). <span><em>Hochfrequente Konjunkturbeobachtung<\\\/em><\\\/span>. WIFO, Institute for Advanced Studies. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/66530\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/66530<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_bookanthology rendering_vancouver rendering_bookanthology_vancouver\\\"><span>Bilek-Steindl S<\\\/span><span>, Bock-Schappelwein J<\\\/span><span>, Glocker C<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski S<\\\/span>, Koch S, Sellner R. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Hochfrequente Konjunkturbeobachtung<\\\/span><\\\/span>. WIFO, Institute for Advanced Studies; 2020.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_bookanthology rendering_bibtex rendering_bookanthology_bibtex\\\"><div>@book{e55e8bdb2ab14c55b61990adfaa742be,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Hochfrequente Konjunkturbeobachtung\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"In dieser Studie wird eine gro{\\\\ss}e Zahl hochfrequenter Indikatoren gesammelt und hinsichtlich ihres Informationsgehaltes im Hinblick auf die Aktivit{\\\\\\\"a}t der {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichischen Volkswirtschaft analysiert. Dies geschieht anhand von Kreuzkorrelationen dieser und anderer h{\\\\\\\"a}ufig verwendeter Indikatoren f{\\\\\\\"u}r verschiedene Referenzreihen, u. a. f{\\\\\\\"u}r das BIP, das verarbeitende Gewerbe, den Bausektor, Teile des Dienstleistungssektors, Investitionen, Konsum, Importe und Exporte. Auf Basis dieser Erkenntnisse werden dynamische Faktormodelle (DFM) f{\\\\\\\"u}r die Referenzreihen spezifiziert. Dies erm{\\\\\\\"o}glicht eine Echtzeiteinsch{\\\\\\\"a}tzung und eine Prognose des BIP sowohl durch einen direkten (w{\\\\\\\"o}chentlicher WIFO-Wirtschaftsindex \u2013 WWWI) als auch durch einen indirekten Ansatz (Cluster dynamischer Faktormodelle \u2013 CDFM). Eine Auswahl an hochfrequenten Indikatoren ist auch {\\\\\\\"u}ber den IHS Economic High-Frequency Monitor abrufbar.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Sandra Bilek-Steindl and Julia Bock-Schappelwein and Christian Glocker and Serguei Kaniovski and Sebastian Koch and Richard Sellner\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Hochfrequente Konjunkturbeobachtung\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2020\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = oct,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_bookanthology rendering_ris rendering_bookanthology_ris\\\"><p>TY  - BOOK<\\\/p><p>T1  - Hochfrequente Konjunkturbeobachtung<\\\/p><p>AU  - Bilek-Steindl, Sandra<\\\/p><p>AU  - Bock-Schappelwein, Julia<\\\/p><p>AU  - Glocker, Christian<\\\/p><p>AU  - Kaniovski, Serguei<\\\/p><p>AU  - Koch, Sebastian<\\\/p><p>AU  - Sellner, Richard<\\\/p><p>N1  - Hochfrequente Konjunkturbeobachtung<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2020\\\/10<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2020\\\/10<\\\/p><p>N2  - In dieser Studie wird eine gro\u00dfe Zahl hochfrequenter Indikatoren gesammelt und hinsichtlich ihres Informationsgehaltes im Hinblick auf die Aktivit\u00e4t der \u00f6sterreichischen Volkswirtschaft analysiert. Dies geschieht anhand von Kreuzkorrelationen dieser und anderer h\u00e4ufig verwendeter Indikatoren f\u00fcr verschiedene Referenzreihen, u. a. f\u00fcr das BIP, das verarbeitende Gewerbe, den Bausektor, Teile des Dienstleistungssektors, Investitionen, Konsum, Importe und Exporte. Auf Basis dieser Erkenntnisse werden dynamische Faktormodelle (DFM) f\u00fcr die Referenzreihen spezifiziert. Dies erm\u00f6glicht eine Echtzeiteinsch\u00e4tzung und eine Prognose des BIP sowohl durch einen direkten (w\u00f6chentlicher WIFO-Wirtschaftsindex \u2013 WWWI) als auch durch einen indirekten Ansatz (Cluster dynamischer Faktormodelle \u2013 CDFM). Eine Auswahl an hochfrequenten Indikatoren ist auch \u00fcber den IHS Economic High-Frequency Monitor abrufbar.<\\\/p><p>AB  - In dieser Studie wird eine gro\u00dfe Zahl hochfrequenter Indikatoren gesammelt und hinsichtlich ihres Informationsgehaltes im Hinblick auf die Aktivit\u00e4t der \u00f6sterreichischen Volkswirtschaft analysiert. Dies geschieht anhand von Kreuzkorrelationen dieser und anderer h\u00e4ufig verwendeter Indikatoren f\u00fcr verschiedene Referenzreihen, u. a. f\u00fcr das BIP, das verarbeitende Gewerbe, den Bausektor, Teile des Dienstleistungssektors, Investitionen, Konsum, Importe und Exporte. Auf Basis dieser Erkenntnisse werden dynamische Faktormodelle (DFM) f\u00fcr die Referenzreihen spezifiziert. Dies erm\u00f6glicht eine Echtzeiteinsch\u00e4tzung und eine Prognose des BIP sowohl durch einen direkten (w\u00f6chentlicher WIFO-Wirtschaftsindex \u2013 WWWI) als auch durch einen indirekten Ansatz (Cluster dynamischer Faktormodelle \u2013 CDFM). Eine Auswahl an hochfrequenten Indikatoren ist auch \u00fcber den IHS Economic High-Frequency Monitor abrufbar.<\\\/p><p>M3  - Studie<\\\/p><p>BT  - Hochfrequente Konjunkturbeobachtung<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[\"Czaloun Astrid\",\"Reschenhofer Peter\"]","scientific_review":"[\"Baumgartner Josef\"]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>High-frequency Business Cycle Monitoring - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/55289\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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