{"id":55271,"date":"2023-12-01T18:43:35","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T17:43:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse-bis-mitte-november-2020\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T06:22:09","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T05:22:09","slug":"hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse-bis-mitte-november-2020","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/55271\/","title":{"rendered":"High Frequency Business Cycle Analysis until Mid-November 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-55271","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The current assessment of the WWWI points to an increasing weakening of the economic recovery: on a monthly average the indicator fell slightly in October (\u20133.5 percent). For the year 2020, taking into account the restrictions imposed by the government (second lockdown from 3 November 2020, tightened on 17 November), the estimate that builds on the WWWI shows a decline in GDP of 8 percent. Based on the model results from the cluster of dynamic factor models (CDFM), a decline of similar magnitude is calculated for the year 2020. In addition to the production and demand side components of National Accounts, the model also includes a real-time assessment of the income side.","onlinedate":"2020-11-19 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20201101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"9","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":385062,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"19","journal":"WIFO Research Briefs","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2020-11-19 12:00:00","types":[44390],"research_groups":[3500,3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[3872,3822,3543,3641],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3872,\"personName\":\"Sandra Bilek-Steindl\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3822,\"personName\":\"Julia Bock-Schappelwein\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3543,\"personName\":\"Christian Glocker\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[10654],"subclients":[],"partners":[8870,8871],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Bilek-Steindl, S.<\\\/span><span>, Bock-Schappelwein, J.<\\\/span><span>, Glocker, C.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Kaniovski, S.<\\\/span> (2020). <span>Hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse bis Mitte November 2020<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Research Briefs<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (19). <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/66528\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/66528<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Bilek-Steindl S<\\\/span><span>, Bock-Schappelwein J<\\\/span><span>, Glocker C<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse bis Mitte November 2020<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Research Briefs<\\\/span>. 2020 Nov;(19).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{b658ceeab89545cd93a0b14fbdf88847,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse bis Mitte November 2020\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Die aktuelle Auswertung des WWWI deutet auf eine zunehmende Abschw{\\\\\\\"a}chung der Konjunkturerholung hin: Im Monatsdurchschnitt sank der Indikator im Oktober leicht (\u20133,5\\\\%). Unter Ber{\\\\\\\"u}cksichtigung der beh{\\\\\\\"o}rdlichen Einschr{\\\\\\\"a}nkungen (zweiter Lockdown ab 3. November 2020 mit Versch{\\\\\\\"a}rfung ab 17. November) ergibt die auf dem WWWI aufbauende Einsch{\\\\\\\"a}tzung f{\\\\\\\"u}r das gesamte Jahr 2020 einen R{\\\\\\\"u}ckgang des BIP von 8\\\\%. Die Modellberechnungen f{\\\\\\\"u}r das Jahr 2020 aus dem Cluster dynamischer Faktormodelle (CDFM) ergeben eine {\\\\\\\"a}hnliche Gr{\\\\\\\"o}{\\\\ss}enordnung. Neben entstehungs- und verwendungsseitigen Komponenten der VGR enth{\\\\\\\"a}lt das Modell auch eine Echtzeiteinsch{\\\\\\\"a}tzung f{\\\\\\\"u}r die Verteilungsseite.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Sandra Bilek-Steindl and Julia Bock-Schappelwein and Christian Glocker and Serguei Kaniovski\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse bis Mitte November 2020\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2020\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = nov,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Research Briefs\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse bis Mitte November 2020<\\\/p><p>AU  - Bilek-Steindl, Sandra<\\\/p><p>AU  - Bock-Schappelwein, Julia<\\\/p><p>AU  - Glocker, Christian<\\\/p><p>AU  - Kaniovski, Serguei<\\\/p><p>N1  - Hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse bis Mitte November 2020<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2020\\\/11<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2020\\\/11<\\\/p><p>N2  - Die aktuelle Auswertung des WWWI deutet auf eine zunehmende Abschw\u00e4chung der Konjunkturerholung hin: Im Monatsdurchschnitt sank der Indikator im Oktober leicht (\u20133,5%). Unter Ber\u00fccksichtigung der beh\u00f6rdlichen Einschr\u00e4nkungen (zweiter Lockdown ab 3. November 2020 mit Versch\u00e4rfung ab 17. November) ergibt die auf dem WWWI aufbauende Einsch\u00e4tzung f\u00fcr das gesamte Jahr 2020 einen R\u00fcckgang des BIP von 8%. Die Modellberechnungen f\u00fcr das Jahr 2020 aus dem Cluster dynamischer Faktormodelle (CDFM) ergeben eine \u00e4hnliche Gr\u00f6\u00dfenordnung. Neben entstehungs- und verwendungsseitigen Komponenten der VGR enth\u00e4lt das Modell auch eine Echtzeiteinsch\u00e4tzung f\u00fcr die Verteilungsseite.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Die aktuelle Auswertung des WWWI deutet auf eine zunehmende Abschw\u00e4chung der Konjunkturerholung hin: Im Monatsdurchschnitt sank der Indikator im Oktober leicht (\u20133,5%). Unter Ber\u00fccksichtigung der beh\u00f6rdlichen Einschr\u00e4nkungen (zweiter Lockdown ab 3. November 2020 mit Versch\u00e4rfung ab 17. November) ergibt die auf dem WWWI aufbauende Einsch\u00e4tzung f\u00fcr das gesamte Jahr 2020 einen R\u00fcckgang des BIP von 8%. Die Modellberechnungen f\u00fcr das Jahr 2020 aus dem Cluster dynamischer Faktormodelle (CDFM) ergeben eine \u00e4hnliche Gr\u00f6\u00dfenordnung. Neben entstehungs- und verwendungsseitigen Komponenten der VGR enth\u00e4lt das Modell auch eine Echtzeiteinsch\u00e4tzung f\u00fcr die Verteilungsseite.<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Research Briefs<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Research Briefs<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>High Frequency Business Cycle Analysis until Mid-November 2020 - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/55271\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High Frequency Business Cycle Analysis until Mid-November 2020\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/55271\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T05:22:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/55271\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/55271\\\/\",\"name\":\"High Frequency Business Cycle Analysis until Mid-November 2020 - 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