{"id":55253,"date":"2023-12-01T18:43:22","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T17:43:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/covid-19-pandemie-daempft-die-konjunkturaussichten-mittelfristige-prognose-2021-bis-2025\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T06:21:57","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T05:21:57","slug":"covid-19-pandemie-daempft-die-konjunkturaussichten-mittelfristige-prognose-2021-bis-2025","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/55253\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19 Pandemic Dampens the Economic Outlook. 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In the baseline scenario, the unemployment rate would fall to its pre-crisis level (7\u00bd percent) by the end of the forecast period. In a more pessimistic risk scenario, it is assumed that due to a second wave of infection in the fourth quarter of 2020 in Austria and in the European main trading partners, significantly more restrictive health policy measures up to (partial) lockdowns will be taken. Under this scenario, the Austrian economy would shrink by 9\u00bc percent in 2020, almost stagnate (+\u00bd percent) at this low output level in 2021 and rebound in 2022 (+5 percent). The budget deficit would rise to 10.8 percent in 2020; by 2021 the public debt ratio would rise to 93\u00bc percent and the unemployment rate to 10\u00bc percent. By the end of the forecast period, the unemployment rate would fall to 8.1 percent.","onlinedate":"2020-11-04 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20201001","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":384975,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"93","monthly_report_pages":"731-753","monthly_report_pages_sort":"731","issue":"10","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2020-11-04 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500,3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[3530,3641,3543,3903,3792],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3530,\"personName\":\"Josef Baumgartner\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3543,\"personName\":\"Christian Glocker\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3903,\"personName\":\"Walter Hyll\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3792,\"personName\":\"Hans Pitlik\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[41281],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>COVID-19 Pandemic Dampens the Economic Outlook. 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