{"id":54361,"date":"2023-12-01T18:20:37","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T17:20:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/zur-prognostizierbarkeit-von-krisen\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T06:14:51","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T05:14:51","slug":"zur-prognostizierbarkeit-von-krisen","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/54361\/","title":{"rendered":"On the Predictability of Crises"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-54361","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"In the past, experts have been able to point out the danger of a crisis in good time, especially if they paid particular attention to structural imbalances. In order to better assess the probability of the occurrence of crises and to initiate economic policy countermeasures in good time, it is therefore necessary to improve structural analyses and forecasts and to conduct them more frequently and more intensively.","onlinedate":"2020-03-10 12:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20200301","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Instabilit\u00e4t\",\"Krisen\",\"Prognose\",\"Strukturpolitik\"]","jelcodes":"[\"E3\",\"E4\",\"F1\",\"G01\",\"G1\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":381668,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"93","monthly_report_pages":"193-206","monthly_report_pages_sort":"193","issue":"3","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2020-03-10 12:00:00","types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[4877],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4877,\"personName\":\"Gunther Tichy\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Tichy, G.<\\\/span> (2020). <span>Zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>93<\\\/em>(3), 193-206. <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/65834\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/65834<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Tichy G<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2020 Mar;93(3):193-206.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{61547ae9136347c88148792ff451e987,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"In der Vergangenheit waren Experten vor allem dann in der Lage, rechtzeitig auf die Gefahr des Eintretens einer Krise hinzuweisen, wenn sie strukturellen Ungleichgewichten besondere Aufmerksamkeit schenkten. Um die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Auftretens von Krisen besser einzusch{\\\\\\\"a}tzen und rechtzeitig wirtschaftspolitische Gegenma{\\\\ss}nahmen einzuleiten, ist es daher notwendig, Strukturanalysen und -prognosen zu verbessern sowie h{\\\\\\\"a}ufiger und intensiver durchzuf{\\\\\\\"u}hren.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Instabilit{\\\\\\\"a}t, Krisen, Prognose, Strukturpolitik, Instabilit{\\\\\\\"a}t, Krisen, Prognose, Strukturpolitik\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Gunther Tichy\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2020\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = mar,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"93\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"193--206\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen<\\\/p><p>AU  - Tichy, Gunther<\\\/p><p>N1  - Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2020\\\/3<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2020\\\/3<\\\/p><p>N2  - In der Vergangenheit waren Experten vor allem dann in der Lage, rechtzeitig auf die Gefahr des Eintretens einer Krise hinzuweisen, wenn sie strukturellen Ungleichgewichten besondere Aufmerksamkeit schenkten. Um die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Auftretens von Krisen besser einzusch\u00e4tzen und rechtzeitig wirtschaftspolitische Gegenma\u00dfnahmen einzuleiten, ist es daher notwendig, Strukturanalysen und -prognosen zu verbessern sowie h\u00e4ufiger und intensiver durchzuf\u00fchren.<\\\/p><p>AB  - In der Vergangenheit waren Experten vor allem dann in der Lage, rechtzeitig auf die Gefahr des Eintretens einer Krise hinzuweisen, wenn sie strukturellen Ungleichgewichten besondere Aufmerksamkeit schenkten. 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