{"id":53691,"date":"2023-12-01T18:10:21","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T17:10:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/eliciting-permanent-and-transitory-undeclared-work-from-matched-administrative-and-survey-data\/"},"modified":"2025-10-22T22:17:37","modified_gmt":"2025-10-22T20:17:37","slug":"eliciting-permanent-and-transitory-undeclared-work-from-matched-administrative-and-survey-data","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/53691\/","title":{"rendered":"Eliciting permanent and transitory undeclared work from matched administrative and survey data"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-53691","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"We study the undeclared work patterns of Hungarian employees in relatively stable jobs, using a panel dataset that matches individual-level self-reported Labour Force Survey data with administrative records of the Pension Directorate for 2001-2006. We estimate the determinants of undeclared work using Heckman-type random-effects panel probit models, and develop a two-regime model to separate permanent and transitory undeclared work, where the latter follows a Markov chain. We find that about 6 to 7 percent of workers went permanently unreported for six consecutive years, and a further 4 percent were transitorily unreported in any given year. The models show lower reporting rates \u2013 especially in the permanent segment \u2013 among males, high-school graduates, those in agriculture and transport, small firms and various forms of atypical employment. Transitory non-reporting may be partly explained by administrative records missing for technical reasons. The results suggest that 1. the \"aggregate labour input method\" widely used in Europe can indeed be a simple yet reliable tool to estimate the size of informal employment, although it slightly overestimates the true magnitude of black work, and 2. the long-term pension consequences of undeclared work may be substantial because of the high share of permanent non-reporting.","onlinedate":"2019-08-01 02:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20190801","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Undeclared work Labour input method Matched administrative-survey data Random-effects panel probit with endogenous selection Markov chain\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":null,"zip":null,"link":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/10663","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"46","monthly_report_pages":"547-576","monthly_report_pages_sort":"547","issue":"3","journal":"Empirica","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":true,"embargo_date":null,"types":[83083],"research_groups":[3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[14393,11341],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":14393,\"personName\":\"P\u00e9ter Elek\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":11341,\"personName\":\"Janos K\u00f6ll\u00f6\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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