{"id":52781,"date":"2023-12-01T17:56:29","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T16:56:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/assessing-the-economic-content-of-direct-and-indirect-business-uncertainty-measures\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T06:03:52","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T05:03:52","slug":"assessing-the-economic-content-of-direct-and-indirect-business-uncertainty-measures","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/52781\/","title":{"rendered":"Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-52781","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct measure of economic uncertainty has a decent contemporaneous correlation with various indirect measures, its informational content is though different. Across all uncertainty measures, shocks to uncertainty trigger effects in GDP of opposite sign, however, the indirect measures tend to significantly underestimate the effects on GDP and other macroeconomic aggregates.","onlinedate":"2019-01-24 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20190101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"54","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":376233,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"576","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2019-01-24 12:00:00","types":[44410],"research_groups":[3500,3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3543,3607],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3543,\"personName\":\"Christian Glocker\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3607,\"personName\":\"Werner H\u00f6lzl\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Glocker, C.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; H\u00f6lzl, W.<\\\/span> (2019). <span>Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (576). <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/61620\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/61620<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Glocker C<\\\/span><span>, H\u00f6lzl W<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2019 Jan;(576).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{ff109ca04bc64536b6a9cc4949b1c91e,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct measure of economic uncertainty has a decent contemporaneous correlation with various indirect measures, its informational content is though different. Across all uncertainty measures, shocks to uncertainty trigger effects in GDP of opposite sign, however, the indirect measures tend to significantly underestimate the effects on GDP and other macroeconomic aggregates.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Christian Glocker and Werner H{\\\\\\\"o}lzl\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2019\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jan,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures<\\\/p><p>AU  - Glocker, Christian<\\\/p><p>AU  - H\u00f6lzl, Werner<\\\/p><p>N1  - Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2019\\\/1<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2019\\\/1<\\\/p><p>N2  - We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct measure of economic uncertainty has a decent contemporaneous correlation with various indirect measures, its informational content is though different. Across all uncertainty measures, shocks to uncertainty trigger effects in GDP of opposite sign, however, the indirect measures tend to significantly underestimate the effects on GDP and other macroeconomic aggregates.<\\\/p><p>AB  - We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct measure of economic uncertainty has a decent contemporaneous correlation with various indirect measures, its informational content is though different. Across all uncertainty measures, shocks to uncertainty trigger effects in GDP of opposite sign, however, the indirect measures tend to significantly underestimate the effects on GDP and other macroeconomic aggregates.<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/52781\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/52781\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T05:03:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/52781\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/52781\\\/\",\"name\":\"Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures - 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