{"id":52305,"date":"2023-12-01T17:49:20","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T16:49:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/from-prosperity-into-the-crisis-and-back-on-the-role-of-economic-theories-in-the-long-cycle\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T06:00:11","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T05:00:11","slug":"from-prosperity-into-the-crisis-and-back-on-the-role-of-economic-theories-in-the-long-cycle","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/52305\/","title":{"rendered":"From Prosperity into the Crisis and Back. On the Role of Economic Theories in the Long Cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-52305","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This essay reconsiders the interaction between the development of economic theories and economic reality since the 1920ies. I begin with the systemic cause of the financial crisis, the coincidence of three \"bear markets\" (stocks, real estate, commodities) which followed three parallel \"bull markets\". I then sketch the macroeconomic effects of the \"manic-depressive\" fluctuations of asset prices and show how they paved the road into the present crisis. As next step, I explain how \"bulls\" and \"bears\" are brought about. Then I sketch how the treatment of financial markets in economic theory and policy has shaped the long cycle from the financial boom of the 1920ies, the Great Depression, the post-war prosperity under \"realcapitalistic\" framework conditions to the \"finance-capitalistic\" regime since the 1970ies. The paper concludes with proposals how Europe could find roads to new prosperity. After the upcoming financial crisis there will be a window of opportunity to implement these proposals.","onlinedate":"2018-11-02 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20181101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"30","keywords":"[\"Asset price dynamics\"]","jelcodes":"[\"B20\",\"E44\",\"F34\",\"G12\",\"O11\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":374470,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"571","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2018-11-02 12:00:00","types":[44410],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3841],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3841,\"personName\":\"Stephan Schulmeister\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>From Prosperity into the Crisis and Back. On the Role of Economic Theories in the Long Cycle - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/52305\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"From Prosperity into the Crisis and Back. 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