{"id":51164,"date":"2023-12-01T17:34:18","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T16:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/estimating-the-trade-and-welfare-effects-of-brexit-a-panel-data-structural-gravity-model\/"},"modified":"2024-11-18T13:16:16","modified_gmt":"2024-11-18T12:16:16","slug":"estimating-the-trade-and-welfare-effects-of-brexit-a-panel-data-structural-gravity-model","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/51164\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit. A Panel Data Structural Gravity Model"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-51164","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.","onlinedate":"2017-12-19 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20171201","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"35","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":416230,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"546","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2017-12-19 12:00:00","types":[44410],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[3600,3785],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3600,\"personName\":\"Harald Oberhofer\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3785,\"personName\":\"Michael Pfaffermayr\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[47933],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Oberhofer, H.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Pfaffermayr, M.<\\\/span> (2017). <span>Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit. A Panel Data Structural Gravity Model<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (546). <a onclick=\\\"window.open(this.href, '_blank','noopener,noreferrer'); return false;\\\" href=\\\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/60830\\\" class=\\\"link\\\"><span>https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wwa\\\/pubid\\\/60830<\\\/span><\\\/a><\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Oberhofer H<\\\/span><span>, Pfaffermayr M<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit. A Panel Data Structural Gravity Model<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2017 Dec;(546).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{e219c692b9e746b49b09db2f8dabf806,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit. A Panel Data Structural Gravity Model\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Panel Data, International Trade, Structural Gravity Estimation, Trade Policy, Brexit\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Harald Oberhofer and Michael Pfaffermayr\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2017\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = dec,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit. A Panel Data Structural Gravity Model<\\\/p><p>AU  - Oberhofer, Harald<\\\/p><p>AU  - Pfaffermayr, Michael<\\\/p><p>N1  - Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2017\\\/12<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2017\\\/12<\\\/p><p>N2  - This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.<\\\/p><p>AB  - This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimation<\\\/p><p>KW  -  Panel Data<\\\/p><p>KW  - International Trade<\\\/p><p>KW  - Structural Gravity Estimation<\\\/p><p>KW  -  Trade Policy<\\\/p><p>KW  -  Brexit<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit. 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