{"id":49061,"date":"2023-11-20T15:45:14","date_gmt":"2023-11-20T14:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/ifo-konjunkturprognose-winter-2022-inflation-und-rezession\/"},"modified":"2025-01-13T17:37:50","modified_gmt":"2025-01-13T16:37:50","slug":"ifo-konjunkturprognose-winter-2022-inflation-und-rezession","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/49061\/","title":{"rendered":"ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2022: Inflation und Rezession"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-49061","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Die deutsche Wirtschaft leidet unter gewaltigen Angebotsschocks. Engp\u00e4sse bei Energie, Vorprodukten und Arbeitskr\u00e4ften belasten die Produktion und treiben die Inflation auf Rekordh\u00f6hen. Der Staat versucht die Folgen mit breit angelegten Entlastungsprogrammen abzufedern. Er schafft damit aber auch Nachfrage, die bei beschr\u00e4nkten Produktionskapazit\u00e4ten den Preisauftrieb hoch h\u00e4lt. Zwar d\u00fcrfte als Folge der staatlichen Strom- und Gaspreisbremsen die Inflationsrate von 7,8% in diesem Jahr auf 6,4% im kommenden Jahr sinken. Gleichzeitig wird allerdings die Kernrate voraussichtlich von 4,8% auf 5,8% steigen. Erst im Jahr 2024 d\u00fcrfte der Preisdruck langsam nachgeben und die Inflationsrate auf 2,8% bzw. die Kernrate auf 2,6% zur\u00fcckgehen. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird im Winterhalbjahr 2022\/23 schrumpfen und die deutsche Wirtschaft damit in eine Rezession geraten. Ab dem Fr\u00fchjahr 2023 d\u00fcrfte sich die Konjunktur dann erholen und die Wirtschaft in der zweiten Jahresh\u00e4lfte mit kr\u00e4ftigeren Raten zulegen, wenn die Einkommen wieder st\u00e4rker steigen als die Preise. Alles in allem wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr um 1,8% zunehmen und im kommenden Jahr geringf\u00fcgig um 0,1% schrumpfen. Im Jahr 2024 liegt der Zuwachs dann wieder bei 1,6%.","onlinedate":"2022-12-14 01:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20221214","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"53","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[\"E66\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":null,"zip":null,"link":"https:\/\/www.ifo.de\/publikationen\/2022\/zeitschrift-einzelheft\/ifo-schnelldienst-sonderausgabe-dezember-2022","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"75","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"Dezember","journal":"ifo Schnelldienst Sonderausgabe","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":true,"embargo_date":null,"types":[125862],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[17527,3567,17531,3543,17533,17535,17537,18311,17539,18315,17541,18317,18313,17545],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":17527,\"personName\":\"Timo Wollmersh\u00e4user\",\"organisationNames\":[\"ifo 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