{"id":48473,"date":"2023-11-20T15:38:18","date_gmt":"2023-11-20T14:38:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/trade-in-times-of-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2024-04-20T14:21:31","modified_gmt":"2024-04-20T12:21:31","slug":"trade-in-times-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/48473\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade in Times of Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-48473","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This paper analyses the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. Our results suggest that an increase in unilateral uncertainty affects average trade costs in a heterogeneous manner, depending on whether the uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country. Moreover, using a cross-sectional gravity approach, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross-border trade flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modelling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.","onlinedate":"2023-03-08 12:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20230301","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"38","keywords":"[\"International Trade\",\"Trade Costs\",\"Gravity\",\"Uncertainty\",\"Counterfactual Scenario Analysis\",\"Brexit\",\"COVID-19\"]","jelcodes":"[\"F13\",\"F14\",\"F42\",\"E60\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":255636,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"659","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2023-03-08 12:00:00","types":[44410],"research_groups":[3491],"collaboration":"","persons":[18159,4377,3600],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":18159,\"personName\":\"Anna Matzner\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":4377,\"personName\":\"Birgit Meyer\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3600,\"personName\":\"Harald Oberhofer\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\">Matzner, A.<span>, Meyer, B.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Oberhofer, H.<\\\/span> (2023). <span>Trade in Times of Uncertainty<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (659).<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\">Matzner A<span>, Meyer B<\\\/span><span>, Oberhofer H<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Trade in Times of Uncertainty<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2023 Mar;(659).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{ea3112dcdbf84045b06ce62d620465f6,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Trade in Times of Uncertainty\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"This paper analyses the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. Our results suggest that an increase in unilateral uncertainty affects average trade costs in a heterogeneous manner, depending on whether the uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country. Moreover, using a cross-sectional gravity approach, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross-border trade flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modelling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"International Trade, Trade Costs, Gravity, Uncertainty, Counterfactual Scenario Analysis, Brexit, COVID-19\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Anna Matzner and Birgit Meyer and Harald Oberhofer\\\",<\\\/div><div>  note     = \\\"Trade in Times of Uncertainty\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2023\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = mar,<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Trade in Times of Uncertainty<\\\/p><p>AU  - Matzner, Anna<\\\/p><p>AU  - Meyer, Birgit<\\\/p><p>AU  - Oberhofer, Harald<\\\/p><p>N1  - Trade in Times of Uncertainty<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2023\\\/3<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2023\\\/3<\\\/p><p>N2  - This paper analyses the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. Our results suggest that an increase in unilateral uncertainty affects average trade costs in a heterogeneous manner, depending on whether the uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country. Moreover, using a cross-sectional gravity approach, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross-border trade flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modelling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.<\\\/p><p>AB  - This paper analyses the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. Our results suggest that an increase in unilateral uncertainty affects average trade costs in a heterogeneous manner, depending on whether the uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country. Moreover, using a cross-sectional gravity approach, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross-border trade flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modelling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.<\\\/p><p>KW  - International Trade<\\\/p><p>KW  - Trade Costs<\\\/p><p>KW  - Gravity<\\\/p><p>KW  - Uncertainty<\\\/p><p>KW  - Counterfactual Scenario Analysis<\\\/p><p>KW  - Brexit<\\\/p><p>KW  - COVID-19<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade in Times of Uncertainty - 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