{"id":453836,"date":"2026-10-28T08:34:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T07:34:18","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-10-28T08:34:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T07:34:19","slug":"european-trade-policy-after-the-rupture-strategic-dependencies-the-second-china-shock-and-the-future-of-the-wto","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453836\/","title":{"rendered":"European Trade Policy after the Rupture: Strategic Dependencies, the Second China Shock and the Future of the WTO"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-453836","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The international economic order is undergoing a structural rupture. Economic interdependence is increasingly weaponised, the binding force of multilateral trade rules is eroding and a second China shock is hitting Europe's industrial core in capital- and technology-intensive sectors. This article argues that the EU should not abandon openness but recalibrate its trade policy. Drawing on recent geoeconomic research, we propose criteria for identifying strategic dependencies and identify seven such dependencies for the EU. We assess trade policy responses to the second China shock and outline a pragmatic WTO reform agenda built on open plurilateralism, a rebalancing of most-favoured-nation treatment and reciprocity, and plurilateral resilience agreements against economic coercion. A deeper Single Market remains the EU's most important source of geoeconomic strength.","onlinedate":"2026-10-28 07:34:19","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20261028","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"15","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":453839,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"735","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44410],"research_groups":[],"collaboration":"","persons":[4986,453829],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4986,\"personName\":\"Gabriel Felbermayr\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":453829,\"personName\":\"Hans Gersbach\",\"organisationNames\":[\"ETH Zurich, KOF\"]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Felbermayr, G.<\\\/span>, &amp; Gersbach, H. (2026). <span>European Trade Policy after the Rupture: Strategic Dependencies, the Second China Shock and the Future of the WTO<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (735).<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Felbermayr G<\\\/span>, Gersbach H. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>European Trade Policy after the Rupture: Strategic Dependencies, the Second China Shock and the Future of the WTO<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2026 Oct 28;(735).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{8e8e07cb87a74d78a69d3dc9ed736791,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"European Trade Policy after the Rupture: Strategic Dependencies, the Second China Shock and the Future of the WTO\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"The international economic order is undergoing a structural rupture. Economic interdependence is increasingly weaponised, the binding force of multilateral trade rules is eroding and a second China shock is hitting Europe's industrial core in capital- and technology-intensive sectors. This article argues that the EU should not abandon openness but recalibrate its trade policy. Drawing on recent geoeconomic research, we propose criteria for identifying strategic dependencies and identify seven such dependencies for the EU. We assess trade policy responses to the second China shock and outline a pragmatic WTO reform agenda built on open plurilateralism, a rebalancing of most-favoured-nation treatment and reciprocity, and plurilateral resilience agreements against economic coercion. A deeper Single Market remains the EU's most important source of geoeconomic strength.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Gabriel Felbermayr and Hans Gersbach\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2026\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = oct,<\\\/div><div>  day      = \\\"28\\\",<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - European Trade Policy after the Rupture: Strategic Dependencies, the Second China Shock and the Future of the WTO<\\\/p><p>AU  - Felbermayr, Gabriel<\\\/p><p>AU  - Gersbach, Hans<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2026\\\/10\\\/28<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2026\\\/10\\\/28<\\\/p><p>N2  - The international economic order is undergoing a structural rupture. 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