{"id":453191,"date":"2026-10-06T17:34:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T15:34:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/453191\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T17:34:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T15:34:24","slug":"perverse-trade-sanction-effects","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/","title":{"rendered":"Perverse Trade Sanction Effects"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-453191","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Using established econometric techniques and disaggregated data that include intra-national trade flows, we estimate the direct and extraterritorial effects of complete trade sanctions on international trade. Across sectors, the direct effects of complete trade sanctions are negative, as expected. However, their extraterritorial effects are predominantly positive, working in the opposite direction of the direct effects. At the extreme, the extraterritorial effects of complete trade sanctions may fully offset their direct effects and lead to a perverse scenario in which the target's overall trade rises in the aftermath of sanctions.","onlinedate":"2026-07-23 02:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"CGPA Working Papers","publication_date":"20260723","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"11","keywords":"[\"Trade sanctions\",\"Trade creation\",\"Trade diversion\",\"Third-country effects\",\"Sanctions busting\"]","jelcodes":"[\"F10\",\"F14\",\"F51\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":453194,"zip":null,"link":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.7167443","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"","journal":"","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":true,"embargo_date":null,"types":[208554],"research_groups":[],"collaboration":"","persons":[4986,269007,17473,17467],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4986,\"personName\":\"Gabriel Felbermayr\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":269007,\"personName\":\"Ohyun Kwon\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":17473,\"personName\":\"Constantinos Syropoulos\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":17467,\"personName\":\"Yoto V. Yotov\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Perverse Trade Sanction Effects - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Perverse Trade Sanction Effects\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-06T15:34:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/453191\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/453191\\\/\",\"name\":\"Perverse Trade Sanction Effects - WIFO\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-06T15:34:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-06T15:34:24+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/453191\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/453191\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/453191\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Perverse Trade Sanction Effects\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":429,\"caption\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/WIFOat\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/WIFOat\",\"https:\\\/\\\/linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/wifoat\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.youtube.com\\\/@WIFO_at\"],\"description\":\"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.\",\"email\":\"office@wifo.ac.at\",\"telephone\":\"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0\",\"legalName\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"foundingDate\":\"1927-01-02\",\"numberOfEmployees\":{\"@type\":\"QuantitativeValue\",\"minValue\":\"51\",\"maxValue\":\"200\"},\"publishingPrinciples\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/mission-und-strategie\\\/\",\"ownershipFundingInfo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/organisation\\\/\",\"actionableFeedbackPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/aktuelles\\\/presse\\\/\",\"correctionsPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/kontakt\\\/\",\"ethicsPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\\\/\",\"diversityPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/gleichstellung\\\/\",\"diversityStaffingReport\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/gleichstellung\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Perverse Trade Sanction Effects - WIFO","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Perverse Trade Sanction Effects","og_url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/","og_site_name":"WIFO","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","article_modified_time":"2026-10-06T15:34:24+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1920,"height":1280,"url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@WIFOat","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/","name":"Perverse Trade Sanction Effects - WIFO","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-10-06T15:34:23+00:00","dateModified":"2026-10-06T15:34:24+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/453191\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Perverse Trade Sanction Effects"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"WIFO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","alternateName":"WIFO","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","width":2000,"height":429,"caption":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat","https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at"],"description":"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.","email":"office@wifo.ac.at","telephone":"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0","legalName":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","foundingDate":"1927-01-02","numberOfEmployees":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","minValue":"51","maxValue":"200"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/","ownershipFundingInfo":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/","actionableFeedbackPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/","correctionsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/","diversityPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/","diversityStaffingReport":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/453191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/453191\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":453192,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/453191\/revisions\/453192"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/17467"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/17473"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/269007"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/4986"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type\/208554"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=453191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}