{"id":452111,"date":"2026-09-02T15:37:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T13:37:14","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-09-06T11:22:42","modified_gmt":"2026-09-06T09:22:42","slug":"short-and-medium-term-forecast-of-of-bankruptcy-employee-protection-insurance-events-in-austria","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/452111\/","title":{"rendered":"Short- and Medium-term Forecast of of Bankruptcy Employee Protection Insurance Events in Austria"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-452111","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"Forecast up to 2030","text":"The study forecasts bankruptcy employee protection insurance events in Austria up to 2030. To this end, it analyses current liquidity trends and the insolvency risk of companies using a microsimulation model in order to obtain a short-term assessment of sector-specific and size-specific insolvency figures. Based on this, the development of bankruptcy employee protection insurance events is projected using a medium-term forecast model. Following the increase in bankruptcy employee protection insurance events and payments to record levels during the 2023-24 recession, the forecast shows an improvement at a high level in the medium term.","onlinedate":"2026-09-02 13:37:16","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20260902","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"55","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":"","zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"","journal":"","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[81966],"research_groups":[3500,3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[3537,3872,3614,3641,3684,3899],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3537,\"personName\":\"J\u00fcrgen Bierbaumer\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3872,\"personName\":\"Sandra Bilek-Steindl\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3614,\"personName\":\"Thomas Horvath\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3684,\"personName\":\"Helmut Mahringer\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3899,\"personName\":\"Thomas Url\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[10746],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_bookanthology rendering_apa rendering_bookanthology_apa\\\"><span>Bierbaumer, J.<\\\/span><span>, Bilek-Steindl, S.<\\\/span><span>, Horvath, T.<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski, S.<\\\/span><span>, Mahringer, H.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Url, T.<\\\/span> (2026). <span><em>Kurz- und mittelfristige Prognose des Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehens in \u00d6sterreich: Einsch\u00e4tzung bis 2030<\\\/em><\\\/span>. WIFO.<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_bookanthology rendering_vancouver rendering_bookanthology_vancouver\\\"><span>Bierbaumer J<\\\/span><span>, Bilek-Steindl S<\\\/span><span>, Horvath T<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski S<\\\/span><span>, Mahringer H<\\\/span><span>, Url T<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Kurz- und mittelfristige Prognose des Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehens in \u00d6sterreich: <span class=\\\"subtitle\\\">Einsch\u00e4tzung bis 2030<\\\/span><\\\/span><\\\/span>. WIFO; 2026.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_bookanthology rendering_bibtex rendering_bookanthology_bibtex\\\"><div>@book{204c56afa6a640998f4bbdffce7e1fe6,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Kurz- und mittelfristige Prognose des Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehens in {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich: Einsch{\\\\\\\"a}tzung bis 2030\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"In der Studie wird das Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehen in {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich bis zum Jahr 2030 vorausgesch{\\\\\\\"a}tzt. Daf{\\\\\\\"u}r wird die derzeitige Liquidit{\\\\\\\"a}tsentwicklung und Insolvenzgef{\\\\\\\"a}hrdung von Unternehmen mit einem Mikrosimulationsmodell analysiert, um eine kurzfristige Einsch{\\\\\\\"a}tzung der sektoralen und gr{\\\\\\\"o}{\\\\ss}enspezifischen Insolvenzzahlen zu erhalten. Darauf aufbauend wird die Entwicklung des Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehens mit einem mittelfristigen Prognosemodell vorausgesch{\\\\\\\"a}tzt. Nachdem in den Rezessionsjahren 2023\\\/24 die Entgeltsicherungsmittel und die Entgeltsicherungsf{\\\\\\\"a}lle des Insolvenz-Entgelt-Fonds auf historische Hochst{\\\\\\\"a}nde stiegen, ist mittelfristig mit einer Entspannung auf hohem Niveau zu rechnen.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"J{\\\\\\\"u}rgen Bierbaumer and Sandra Bilek-Steindl and Thomas Horvath and Serguei Kaniovski and Helmut Mahringer and Thomas Url\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2026\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = sep,<\\\/div><div>  day      = \\\"2\\\",<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_bookanthology rendering_ris rendering_bookanthology_ris\\\"><p>TY  - BOOK<\\\/p><p>T1  - Kurz- und mittelfristige Prognose des Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehens in \u00d6sterreich<\\\/p><p>T2  - Einsch\u00e4tzung bis 2030<\\\/p><p>AU  - Bierbaumer, J\u00fcrgen<\\\/p><p>AU  - Bilek-Steindl, Sandra<\\\/p><p>AU  - Horvath, Thomas<\\\/p><p>AU  - Kaniovski, Serguei<\\\/p><p>AU  - Mahringer, Helmut<\\\/p><p>AU  - Url, Thomas<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2026\\\/9\\\/2<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2026\\\/9\\\/2<\\\/p><p>N2  - In der Studie wird das Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehen in \u00d6sterreich bis zum Jahr 2030 vorausgesch\u00e4tzt. Daf\u00fcr wird die derzeitige Liquidit\u00e4tsentwicklung und Insolvenzgef\u00e4hrdung von Unternehmen mit einem Mikrosimulationsmodell analysiert, um eine kurzfristige Einsch\u00e4tzung der sektoralen und gr\u00f6\u00dfenspezifischen Insolvenzzahlen zu erhalten. Darauf aufbauend wird die Entwicklung des Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehens mit einem mittelfristigen Prognosemodell vorausgesch\u00e4tzt. Nachdem in den Rezessionsjahren 2023\\\/24 die Entgeltsicherungsmittel und die Entgeltsicherungsf\u00e4lle des Insolvenz-Entgelt-Fonds auf historische Hochst\u00e4nde stiegen, ist mittelfristig mit einer Entspannung auf hohem Niveau zu rechnen.<\\\/p><p>AB  - In der Studie wird das Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehen in \u00d6sterreich bis zum Jahr 2030 vorausgesch\u00e4tzt. Daf\u00fcr wird die derzeitige Liquidit\u00e4tsentwicklung und Insolvenzgef\u00e4hrdung von Unternehmen mit einem Mikrosimulationsmodell analysiert, um eine kurzfristige Einsch\u00e4tzung der sektoralen und gr\u00f6\u00dfenspezifischen Insolvenzzahlen zu erhalten. Darauf aufbauend wird die Entwicklung des Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehens mit einem mittelfristigen Prognosemodell vorausgesch\u00e4tzt. Nachdem in den Rezessionsjahren 2023\\\/24 die Entgeltsicherungsmittel und die Entgeltsicherungsf\u00e4lle des Insolvenz-Entgelt-Fonds auf historische Hochst\u00e4nde stiegen, ist mittelfristig mit einer Entspannung auf hohem Niveau zu rechnen.<\\\/p><p>M3  - Studie<\\\/p><p>BT  - Kurz- und mittelfristige Prognose des Insolvenzentgeltsicherungsgeschehens in \u00d6sterreich<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[\"Czaloun Astrid\",\"Einsiedl Martina\"]","scientific_review":"[\"Warum Philipp\"]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Short- and Medium-term Forecast of of Bankruptcy Employee Protection Insurance Events in Austria - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/452111\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Short- and Medium-term Forecast of of Bankruptcy Employee Protection Insurance Events in Austria\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/452111\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-06T09:22:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/452111\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/452111\\\/\",\"name\":\"Short- and Medium-term Forecast of of Bankruptcy Employee Protection Insurance Events in Austria - 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