{"id":448611,"date":"2026-06-01T15:38:02","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T13:38:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/448611\/"},"modified":"2026-06-01T15:38:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T13:38:03","slug":"economic-implications-for-europe-of-a-potential-reintegration-of-iran-into-the-world-economy","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Implications for Europe of a Potential Reintegration of Iran into the World Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-448611","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"How would fundamental political change in Iran, leading to a democratic system with a free and rules-based economic order, affect Germany and the EU economically? In the event of change, sanctions could be scaled back, allowing Iran to rejoin the global economy. This study quantifies the economic effects of such a transformation. It neither advocates for nor legitimises the lifting or easing of sanctions under the current regime or without far-reaching and credible reforms that fully address the concerns underlying the sanctions currently in place. Using the newest available data and quantitative methods, the results indicate that lifting EU sanctions alone could raise Iran's real GDP by more than 80 percent in the long run while generating moderate but economically meaningful gains for Germany and the EU of around 0.3 to 0.4 percent of GDP. These gains are driven by expanded trade, lower energy and input prices, and improved allocative efficiency. When sanctions removal is combined with plausible scenarios of productivity catch-up with Turkey or South Korea, Iran's GDP would increase by 240 to 388 percent and the gains for Europe would increase further, underscoring the strong complementarity between trade integration and productivity growth. Moreover, Iran's reintegration would reduce energy price volatility, improve the security of maritime trade routes, and lower migration pressures. Overall, the findings suggest that a negotiated transition and rules-based reintegration of Iran would generate substantial mutual economic benefits while contributing to regional and global stability.","onlinedate":"2026-02-01 01:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20260201","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"72","keywords":"[\"Iran\",\"Economic sanctions\",\"Regime transition\",\"Trade integration\",\"Energy markets\",\"Oil and gas prices\"]","jelcodes":"[\"F13\",\"F15\",\"F51\",\"Q41\",\"Q48\",\"O53\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":448614,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"481","journal":"wiiw Research Reports","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":true,"embargo_date":null,"types":[125862],"research_groups":[],"collaboration":"","persons":[15877,4986,5167,15263,17467],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":15877,\"personName\":\"Mahdi Ghodsi\",\"organisationNames\":[\"wiiw\"]},{\"personId\":4986,\"personName\":\"Gabriel Felbermayr\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":5167,\"personName\":\"Heider Kariem\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":15263,\"personName\":\"Robert Stehrer\",\"organisationNames\":[\"wiiw\"]},{\"personId\":17467,\"personName\":\"Yoto V. Yotov\",\"organisationNames\":[\"Drexel University\"]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Economic Implications for Europe of a Potential Reintegration of Iran into the World Economy - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic Implications for Europe of a Potential Reintegration of Iran into the World Economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-01T13:38:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/448611\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/448611\\\/\",\"name\":\"Economic Implications for Europe of a Potential Reintegration of Iran into the World Economy - WIFO\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-01T13:38:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-06-01T13:38:03+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/448611\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/448611\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/448611\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Economic Implications for Europe of a Potential Reintegration of Iran into the World Economy\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":429,\"caption\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/WIFOat\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/WIFOat\",\"https:\\\/\\\/linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/wifoat\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.youtube.com\\\/@WIFO_at\"],\"description\":\"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.\",\"email\":\"office@wifo.ac.at\",\"telephone\":\"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0\",\"legalName\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"foundingDate\":\"1927-01-02\",\"numberOfEmployees\":{\"@type\":\"QuantitativeValue\",\"minValue\":\"51\",\"maxValue\":\"200\"},\"publishingPrinciples\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/mission-und-strategie\\\/\",\"ownershipFundingInfo\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/organisation\\\/\",\"actionableFeedbackPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/aktuelles\\\/presse\\\/\",\"correctionsPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/kontakt\\\/\",\"ethicsPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\\\/\",\"diversityPolicy\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/gleichstellung\\\/\",\"diversityStaffingReport\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/institut\\\/gleichstellung\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Economic Implications for Europe of a Potential Reintegration of Iran into the World Economy - WIFO","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Economic Implications for Europe of a Potential Reintegration of Iran into the World Economy","og_url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/","og_site_name":"WIFO","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","article_modified_time":"2026-06-01T13:38:03+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1920,"height":1280,"url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@WIFOat","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/","name":"Economic Implications for Europe of a Potential Reintegration of Iran into the World Economy - WIFO","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-06-01T13:38:02+00:00","dateModified":"2026-06-01T13:38:03+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/448611\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Economic Implications for Europe of a Potential Reintegration of Iran into the World Economy"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"WIFO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","alternateName":"WIFO","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","width":2000,"height":429,"caption":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat","https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at"],"description":"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.","email":"office@wifo.ac.at","telephone":"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0","legalName":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","foundingDate":"1927-01-02","numberOfEmployees":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","minValue":"51","maxValue":"200"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/","ownershipFundingInfo":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/","actionableFeedbackPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/","correctionsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/","diversityPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/","diversityStaffingReport":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/448611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/448611\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":448612,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/448611\/revisions\/448612"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/17467"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/15263"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/5167"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/4986"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/15877"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type\/125862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=448611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}