{"id":443177,"date":"2026-03-10T14:12:37","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T13:12:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/443177\/"},"modified":"2026-04-01T17:38:06","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T15:38:06","slug":"economic-forecasting-with-an-agent-based-model","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-443177","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"We develop the first agent-based model (ABM) that can compete with benchmark VAR and DSGE models in out-of-sample forecasting of macro variables. Our ABM for a small open economy uses micro and macro data from national accounts, sector accounts, input-output tables, government statistics, and census and business demography data. The model incorporates all economic activities as classified by the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) and includes all economic sectors populated with millions of heterogeneous agents. In addition to being a competitive model framework for forecasts of aggregate variables, the detailed structure of the ABM allows for a breakdown into sector-level forecasts. Using this detailed structure, we demonstrate the ABM by forecasting the medium-run macroeconomic effects of lockdown measures taken in Austria to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Potential applications of the model include stress-testing and predicting the effects of monetary or fiscal macroeconomic policies.","onlinedate":"2023-01-01 01:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20230101","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":false,"publication_num_pages":"26","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":null,"zip":null,"link":"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0014292122001891","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"151","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"","journal":"European Economic Review","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":true,"embargo_date":null,"types":[83083],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[430221,443240,443242,14839],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":430221,\"personName\":\"Sebastian Poledna\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":443240,\"personName\":\"Michael Gregor Miess\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":443242,\"personName\":\"Cars Hommes\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":14839,\"personName\":\"Katrin Rabitsch\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-01T15:38:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/\",\"name\":\"Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model - WIFO\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-10T13:12:37+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-01T15:38:06+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":429,\"caption\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat\",\"https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at\"],\"description\":\"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.\",\"email\":\"office@wifo.ac.at\",\"telephone\":\"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0\",\"legalName\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"foundingDate\":\"1927-01-02\",\"numberOfEmployees\":{\"@type\":\"QuantitativeValue\",\"minValue\":\"51\",\"maxValue\":\"200\"},\"publishingPrinciples\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/\",\"ownershipFundingInfo\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/\",\"actionableFeedbackPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/\",\"correctionsPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/\",\"ethicsPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/\",\"diversityPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/\",\"diversityStaffingReport\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model - WIFO","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model","og_url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/","og_site_name":"WIFO","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","article_modified_time":"2026-04-01T15:38:06+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1920,"height":1280,"url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@WIFOat","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/","name":"Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model - WIFO","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-03-10T13:12:37+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-01T15:38:06+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/443177\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"WIFO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","alternateName":"WIFO","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","width":2000,"height":429,"caption":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat","https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at"],"description":"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.","email":"office@wifo.ac.at","telephone":"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0","legalName":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","foundingDate":"1927-01-02","numberOfEmployees":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","minValue":"51","maxValue":"200"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/","ownershipFundingInfo":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/","actionableFeedbackPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/","correctionsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/","diversityPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/","diversityStaffingReport":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/443177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/443177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":444748,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/443177\/revisions\/444748"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/14839"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/443242"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/443240"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/430221"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research_group\/3500"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type\/83083"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=443177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}