{"id":442551,"date":"2026-02-25T14:38:18","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T13:38:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/442551\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T12:38:55","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T10:38:55","slug":"counterfactual-impact-evaluation-of-cohesion-policy-2014-2020-impact-on-enterprises-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/442551\/","title":{"rendered":"Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Cohesion Policy 2014-2020: Impact on Enterprises"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-442551","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This paper examines the impact of the European Union's Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 on enterprise dynamics at the NUTS-2 level. Using discrete eligibility thresholds at 75 and 90 percent of EU average GDP per capita, we implement sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs to assess effects on enterprise births and deaths, changes in the number of and employment in enterprises and local units. The analysis draws on ARDECO, DG REGIO, and Eurostat data, and considers both the full period (2014-2020) and a prepandemic subsample (2014-2019). We find no robust evidence of statistically significant discontinuities in treatment intensity at the thresholds, except under restrictive model assumptions. This lack of sharp jumps in funding intensity, combined with low statistical power, prevents credible identification of causal effects on enterprise outcomes. Moreover, diagnostic tests reveal structural breaks in key regional characteristics (e.g., sectoral structure, education, initial enterprise density) at the cutoffs, violating core RDD assumptions and suggesting confounding. We argue that institutional changes \u2013 the introduction of \"transition regions\" category, smoothed eligibility rules, and additional allocation criteria such as unemployment \u2013 have weakened the quasi-experimental nature of GDP-based thresholds. Future evaluations should rely on multiperiod designs and alternative identification strategies.","onlinedate":"2026-02-25 13:38:22","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20260225","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"50","keywords":"[\"Regional Policy\",\"Firm growth and demography\",\"Evaluation\"]","jelcodes":"[\"R11\",\"O40\",\"C21\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":448452,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"720","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44410],"research_groups":[3481],"collaboration":"","persons":[5015,3621,3755],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":5015,\"personName\":\"Alexander Daminger\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3621,\"personName\":\"Peter Huber\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3755,\"personName\":\"Klaus Nowotny\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[10646],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[41003],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Daminger, A.<\\\/span><span>, Huber, P.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Nowotny, K.<\\\/span> (2026). <span>Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Cohesion Policy 2014-2020: Impact on Enterprises<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (720).<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Daminger A<\\\/span><span>, Huber P<\\\/span><span>, Nowotny K<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Cohesion Policy 2014-2020: Impact on Enterprises<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2026 Feb 25;(720).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{acc86694107f4e498d603fd3d9e2b103,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Cohesion Policy 2014-2020: Impact on Enterprises\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"This paper examines the impact of the European Union's Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 on enterprise dynamics at the NUTS-2 level. Using discrete eligibility thresholds at 75 and 90 percent of EU average GDP per capita, we implement sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs to assess effects on enterprise births and deaths, changes in the number of and employment in enterprises and local units. The analysis draws on ARDECO, DG REGIO, and Eurostat data, and considers both the full period (2014-2020) and a prepandemic subsample (2014-2019). We find no robust evidence of statistically significant discontinuities in treatment intensity at the thresholds, except under restrictive model assumptions. This lack of sharp jumps in funding intensity, combined with low statistical power, prevents credible identification of causal effects on enterprise outcomes. Moreover, diagnostic tests reveal structural breaks in key regional characteristics (e.g., sectoral structure, education, initial enterprise density) at the cutoffs, violating core RDD assumptions and suggesting confounding. We argue that institutional changes \u2013 the introduction of {\\\"}transition regions{\\\"} category, smoothed eligibility rules, and additional allocation criteria such as unemployment \u2013 have weakened the quasi-experimental nature of GDP-based thresholds. Future evaluations should rely on multiperiod designs and alternative identification strategies.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Regional Policy, Firm growth and demography, Evaluation\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Alexander Daminger and Peter Huber and Klaus Nowotny\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2026\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = feb,<\\\/div><div>  day      = \\\"25\\\",<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Cohesion Policy 2014-2020: Impact on Enterprises<\\\/p><p>AU  - Daminger, Alexander<\\\/p><p>AU  - Huber, Peter<\\\/p><p>AU  - Nowotny, Klaus<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2026\\\/2\\\/25<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2026\\\/2\\\/25<\\\/p><p>N2  - This paper examines the impact of the European Union's Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 on enterprise dynamics at the NUTS-2 level. Using discrete eligibility thresholds at 75 and 90 percent of EU average GDP per capita, we implement sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs to assess effects on enterprise births and deaths, changes in the number of and employment in enterprises and local units. The analysis draws on ARDECO, DG REGIO, and Eurostat data, and considers both the full period (2014-2020) and a prepandemic subsample (2014-2019). We find no robust evidence of statistically significant discontinuities in treatment intensity at the thresholds, except under restrictive model assumptions. This lack of sharp jumps in funding intensity, combined with low statistical power, prevents credible identification of causal effects on enterprise outcomes. Moreover, diagnostic tests reveal structural breaks in key regional characteristics (e.g., sectoral structure, education, initial enterprise density) at the cutoffs, violating core RDD assumptions and suggesting confounding. We argue that institutional changes \u2013 the introduction of \\\"transition regions\\\" category, smoothed eligibility rules, and additional allocation criteria such as unemployment \u2013 have weakened the quasi-experimental nature of GDP-based thresholds. Future evaluations should rely on multiperiod designs and alternative identification strategies.<\\\/p><p>AB  - This paper examines the impact of the European Union's Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 on enterprise dynamics at the NUTS-2 level. Using discrete eligibility thresholds at 75 and 90 percent of EU average GDP per capita, we implement sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs to assess effects on enterprise births and deaths, changes in the number of and employment in enterprises and local units. The analysis draws on ARDECO, DG REGIO, and Eurostat data, and considers both the full period (2014-2020) and a prepandemic subsample (2014-2019). We find no robust evidence of statistically significant discontinuities in treatment intensity at the thresholds, except under restrictive model assumptions. This lack of sharp jumps in funding intensity, combined with low statistical power, prevents credible identification of causal effects on enterprise outcomes. Moreover, diagnostic tests reveal structural breaks in key regional characteristics (e.g., sectoral structure, education, initial enterprise density) at the cutoffs, violating core RDD assumptions and suggesting confounding. We argue that institutional changes \u2013 the introduction of \\\"transition regions\\\" category, smoothed eligibility rules, and additional allocation criteria such as unemployment \u2013 have weakened the quasi-experimental nature of GDP-based thresholds. Future evaluations should rely on multiperiod designs and alternative identification strategies.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Regional Policy<\\\/p><p>KW  - Firm growth and demography<\\\/p><p>KW  - Evaluation<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Cohesion Policy 2014-2020: Impact on Enterprises - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/442551\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Cohesion Policy 2014-2020: Impact on Enterprises\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/442551\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-27T10:38:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/442551\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/442551\\\/\",\"name\":\"Counterfactual Impact Evaluation of Cohesion Policy 2014-2020: Impact on Enterprises - 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