{"id":438842,"date":"2025-12-18T11:53:35","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T10:53:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/438842\/"},"modified":"2025-12-18T11:53:36","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T10:53:36","slug":"impact-of-demographic-change-on-public-care-costs","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/438842\/","title":{"rendered":"Impact of Demographic Change on Public Care Costs"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-438842","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"New Evidence from Dynamic Microsimulation","text":"Using dynamic microsimulation models, this article examines how demographic change, education trends and health developments will shape future care needs and public care costs. For Austria, there is a clear increase in expenditure, driven primarily by rising life expectancy, while the expansion of education has a dampening effect. Comparative analyses for Austria, Spain and Italy illustrate that differences in institutional structures and the potential for informal care lead to widely diverging gaps in care provision. The results underscore the need for preventive health policies, the expansion of formal care capacities, and the development of long-term sustainable financing strategies.","onlinedate":"2025-12-18 10:53:36","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20251219","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[\"C53\",\"I11\",\"J14\"]","related_publications":"[\"fb337848-edee-4f73-b63f-c9db5648c9b0\",\"2953b33d-82b7-4c73-93cd-a48adcfc2dca\",\"0b9a3609-3e1d-4db9-a6ee-a61c6056dda2\",\"ca4973d7-0d66-4efe-911c-7925daf3d58d\"]","pdf":438844,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"98","monthly_report_pages":"681-691","monthly_report_pages_sort":"681","issue":"12","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[4401,3614,3749,5030,218787],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4401,\"personName\":\"Ulrike Famira-M\u00fchlberger\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3614,\"personName\":\"Thomas Horvath\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3749,\"personName\":\"Martin Spielauer\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":5030,\"personName\":\"Philipp Warum\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":218787,\"personName\":\"Thomas Leoni\",\"organisationNames\":[\"FH Wiener Neustadt\"]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"
Famira-M\u00fchlberger, U.<\\\/span>, Horvath, T.<\\\/span>, Spielauer, M.<\\\/span>, Warum, P.<\\\/span>, & Leoni, T. (2025). Die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die \u00f6ffentlichen Pflegekosten: Neue Evidenz aus einer dynamischen Mikrosimulation<\\\/span>. WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, 98<\\\/em>(12), 681-691.<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"
Famira-M\u00fchlberger U<\\\/span>, Horvath T<\\\/span>, Spielauer M<\\\/span>, Warum P<\\\/span>, Leoni T. Die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die \u00f6ffentlichen Pflegekosten: Neue Evidenz aus einer dynamischen Mikrosimulation<\\\/span><\\\/span><\\\/span>. WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2025 Dec 19;98(12):681-691.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"
@misc{604f19c4db68413c94735febce60b307,<\\\/div>
title = \\\"Die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die {\\\\\\\"o}ffentlichen Pflegekosten: Neue Evidenz aus einer dynamischen Mikrosimulation\\\",<\\\/div>
abstract = \\\"Mithilfe dynamischer Mikrosimulationsmodelle untersucht der Beitrag, wie der demografische Wandel, Bildungstrends und gesundheitliche Entwicklungen den k{\\\\\\\"u}nftigen Pflegebedarf und die {\\\\\\\"o}ffentlichen Pflegekosten beeinflussen. F{\\\\\\\"u}r {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich zeigt sich ein deutlicher Anstieg der Pflegeausgaben, der prim{\\\\\\\"a}r durch die steigende Lebenserwartung getrieben ist, w{\\\\\\\"a}hrend die Bildungsexpansion d{\\\\\\\"a}mpfend wirkt. Vergleichende Analysen f{\\\\\\\"u}r {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich, Spanien und Italien verdeutlichen, dass Unterschiede in den institutionellen Strukturen und Potenzialen der informellen Pflege zu stark divergierenden Versorgungsl{\\\\\\\"u}cken f{\\\\\\\"u}hren. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Notwendigkeit pr{\\\\\\\"a}ventiver Gesundheitspolitik, des Ausbaus formeller Pflegekapazit{\\\\\\\"a}ten sowie der Ausarbeitung langfristig tragf{\\\\\\\"a}higer Finanzierungsstrategien.\\\",<\\\/div>
keywords = \\\"Bev{\\\\\\\"o}lkerungsalterung, Langzeitpflege, Kostenprojektionen, dynamische Mikrosimulation\\\",<\\\/div>
author = \\\"Ulrike Famira-M{\\\\\\\"u}hlberger and Thomas Horvath and Martin Spielauer and Philipp Warum and Thomas Leoni\\\",<\\\/div>
year = \\\"2025\\\",<\\\/div>
month = dec,<\\\/div>
day = \\\"19\\\",<\\\/div>
language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div>
volume = \\\"98\\\",<\\\/div>
pages = \\\"681--691\\\",<\\\/div>
journal = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div>

}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"

TY - GEN<\\\/p>

T1 - Die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die \u00f6ffentlichen Pflegekosten<\\\/p>

T2 - Neue Evidenz aus einer dynamischen Mikrosimulation<\\\/p>

AU - Famira-M\u00fchlberger, Ulrike<\\\/p>

AU - Horvath, Thomas<\\\/p>

AU - Spielauer, Martin<\\\/p>

AU - Warum, Philipp<\\\/p>

AU - Leoni, Thomas<\\\/p>

PY - 2025\\\/12\\\/19<\\\/p>

Y1 - 2025\\\/12\\\/19<\\\/p>

N2 - Mithilfe dynamischer Mikrosimulationsmodelle untersucht der Beitrag, wie der demografische Wandel, Bildungstrends und gesundheitliche Entwicklungen den k\u00fcnftigen Pflegebedarf und die \u00f6ffentlichen Pflegekosten beeinflussen. F\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich zeigt sich ein deutlicher Anstieg der Pflegeausgaben, der prim\u00e4r durch die steigende Lebenserwartung getrieben ist, w\u00e4hrend die Bildungsexpansion d\u00e4mpfend wirkt. Vergleichende Analysen f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich, Spanien und Italien verdeutlichen, dass Unterschiede in den institutionellen Strukturen und Potenzialen der informellen Pflege zu stark divergierenden Versorgungsl\u00fccken f\u00fchren. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Notwendigkeit pr\u00e4ventiver Gesundheitspolitik, des Ausbaus formeller Pflegekapazit\u00e4ten sowie der Ausarbeitung langfristig tragf\u00e4higer Finanzierungsstrategien.<\\\/p>

AB - Mithilfe dynamischer Mikrosimulationsmodelle untersucht der Beitrag, wie der demografische Wandel, Bildungstrends und gesundheitliche Entwicklungen den k\u00fcnftigen Pflegebedarf und die \u00f6ffentlichen Pflegekosten beeinflussen. F\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich zeigt sich ein deutlicher Anstieg der Pflegeausgaben, der prim\u00e4r durch die steigende Lebenserwartung getrieben ist, w\u00e4hrend die Bildungsexpansion d\u00e4mpfend wirkt. Vergleichende Analysen f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich, Spanien und Italien verdeutlichen, dass Unterschiede in den institutionellen Strukturen und Potenzialen der informellen Pflege zu stark divergierenden Versorgungsl\u00fccken f\u00fchren. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen die Notwendigkeit pr\u00e4ventiver Gesundheitspolitik, des Ausbaus formeller Pflegekapazit\u00e4ten sowie der Ausarbeitung langfristig tragf\u00e4higer Finanzierungsstrategien.<\\\/p>

KW - Bev\u00f6lkerungsalterung<\\\/p>

KW - Langzeitpflege<\\\/p>

KW - Kostenprojektionen<\\\/p>

KW - dynamische Mikrosimulation<\\\/p>

M3 - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p>

VL - 98<\\\/p>

SP - 681<\\\/p>

EP - 691<\\\/p>

JO - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p>

JF - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p>

ER - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[\"Grandner Lydia\"]","scientific_review":"[\"Peneder Michael\"]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"\nImpact of Demographic Change on Public Care Costs - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/438842\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Impact of Demographic Change on Public Care Costs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/438842\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-18T10:53:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/438842\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/438842\\\/\",\"name\":\"Impact of Demographic Change on Public Care Costs - 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