{"id":438443,"date":"2025-12-05T14:37:23","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T13:37:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/438443\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T04:38:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T03:38:21","slug":"demographic-change-and-the-future-of-austrias-long-term-care-allowance-a-dynamic-microsimulation-study-2","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/438443\/","title":{"rendered":"Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term-Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-438443","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Background\/Objectives: Europe's demographic shift is putting increasing pressure on long-term care (LTC) systems and raising concerns about the sustainability of LTC financing. In this paper, we analyse Austria's LTC system, particularly its universal long-term-care allowance (LTCA), and aim to project LTCA expenditure under different future scenarios. Methods: We use a dynamic microsimulation model to project LTCA expenditure under four scenarios up to the year 2080. Combining LTCA statistics with pooled data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we estimate care needs and prevalence rates across all seven care allowance levels. This enables us to project both public spending and individual lifetime costs, disaggregated by sex and education. Results: Although total LTCA expenditure is projected to rise due to population ageing, scenario comparisons show that compositional shifts \u2013 such as higher educational attainment, which is linked to lower care needs and gains in healthy life expectancy accompanying mortality improvements \u2013 can significantly mitigate cost growth. The projected total expenditure increases range from 29 percent in a scenario where increasing life expectancy \u2013 as assumed in official population projections \u2013 is neglected to 185 percent in a scenario accounting for rising life expectancy but no future health gains. The findings also highlight the impact of longevity and education on the distribution of individual lifetime costs. Conclusions: Beyond its policy implications for LTC planning, this study demonstrates the advantages of dynamic microsimulation in capturing individual-level heterogeneity, offering a significant improvement over traditional macrosimulation approaches.","onlinedate":"2025-12-04 01:00:00","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20251204","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"27","keywords":"[\"population ageing\",\"long-term care\",\"long-term care allowance\",\"projections\",\"dynamic microsimulation\"]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":null,"zip":null,"link":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/healthcare13233175","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"13","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"23","journal":"Healthcare","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":true,"embargo_date":null,"types":[83083],"research_groups":[3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[4401,3614,218787,3749,420101,5030],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4401,\"personName\":\"Ulrike Famira-M\u00fchlberger\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3614,\"personName\":\"Thomas Horvath\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":218787,\"personName\":\"Thomas Leoni\",\"organisationNames\":[\"FH Wiener Neustadt\"]},{\"personId\":3749,\"personName\":\"Martin Spielauer\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":420101,\"personName\":\"Viktoria Szenkur\u00f6k\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":5030,\"personName\":\"Philipp Warum\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[41531],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[\"Grandner Lydia\"]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - 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