{"id":438202,"date":"2025-11-28T09:41:45","date_gmt":"2025-11-28T08:41:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/438202\/"},"modified":"2025-11-28T09:41:46","modified_gmt":"2025-11-28T08:41:46","slug":"uncertainty-dependent-confidence-intervals-for-wifo-economic-outlooks","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/438202\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainty-dependent Confidence Intervals for WIFO Economic Outlooks"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-438202","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This paper proposes a methodology for constructing confidence intervals for macroeconomic forecasts that directly incorporate quantitative measures of uncertainty \u2013 such as survey-based indicators, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty. As a result, the interval width systematically adjusts to the prevailing uncertainty conditions. Since the approach enables more informative and context-sensitive statements than traditional, static methods that rely solely on past forecast errors, it facilitates and improves the communication of forecast results. An empirical application to past WIFO Economic Outlooks demonstrates its added value.","onlinedate":"2025-11-28 08:41:46","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20251128","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[\"C32\",\"C53\",\"C40\",\"E37\"]","related_publications":"[\"57607863-ab35-44ce-9b0f-3cdd4833be57\",\"4ce840bc-a738-4590-a675-88457ff88f1b\",\"c0d7d3d5-0a11-4f71-94f3-af06b55715bb\",\"f9efc91b-a123-4403-be19-fb2b115a3be4\",\"88df86f1-cc61-4442-9fac-529bdb1b2c30\"]","pdf":438204,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"98","monthly_report_pages":"631-637","monthly_report_pages_sort":"631","issue":"11","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3543,3641],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3543,\"personName\":\"Christian Glocker\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Glocker, C.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Kaniovski, S.<\\\/span> (2025). <span>Unsicherheitsabh\u00e4ngige Konfidenzintervalle f\u00fcr WIFO-Konjunkturprognosen<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, <em>98<\\\/em>(11), 631-637.<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Glocker C<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Unsicherheitsabh\u00e4ngige Konfidenzintervalle f\u00fcr WIFO-Konjunkturprognosen<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2025 Nov 28;98(11):631-637.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{d06dc14ac62f4e6f9b45b996d2521281,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Unsicherheitsabh{\\\\\\\"a}ngige Konfidenzintervalle f{\\\\\\\"u}r WIFO-Konjunkturprognosen\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Dieser Beitrag entwickelt eine Methode zur Bestimmung von Konfidenzintervallen f{\\\\\\\"u}r makro{\\\\\\\"o}konomische Prognosen, die quantitative Unsicherheitsma{\\\\ss}e \u2013 etwa umfragebasierte Indikatoren, die Aktienmarktvolatilit{\\\\\\\"a}t und Kennzahlen zur wirtschaftspolitischen Unsicherheit \u2013 unmittelbar ber{\\\\\\\"u}cksichtigt. Dadurch passt sich die Intervallbreite systematisch an die jeweils herrschende Unsicherheit an. Da der Ansatz informativere und kontextsensitivere Aussagen erm{\\\\\\\"o}glicht als traditionelle statische Verfahren, die allein auf vergangenen Prognosefehlern beruhen, erleichtert und verbessert er die Kommunikation der Prognoseergebnisse. Eine empirische Anwendung auf fr{\\\\\\\"u}here WIFO-Konjunkturprognosen belegt seinen Mehrwert.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Konfidenzintervalle, Prognosefehler, Unsicherheit, SUR\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Christian Glocker and Serguei Kaniovski\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2025\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = nov,<\\\/div><div>  day      = \\\"28\\\",<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  volume   = \\\"98\\\",<\\\/div><div>  pages    = \\\"631--637\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Unsicherheitsabh\u00e4ngige Konfidenzintervalle f\u00fcr WIFO-Konjunkturprognosen<\\\/p><p>AU  - Glocker, Christian<\\\/p><p>AU  - Kaniovski, Serguei<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2025\\\/11\\\/28<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2025\\\/11\\\/28<\\\/p><p>N2  - Dieser Beitrag entwickelt eine Methode zur Bestimmung von Konfidenzintervallen f\u00fcr makro\u00f6konomische Prognosen, die quantitative Unsicherheitsma\u00dfe \u2013 etwa umfragebasierte Indikatoren, die Aktienmarktvolatilit\u00e4t und Kennzahlen zur wirtschaftspolitischen Unsicherheit \u2013 unmittelbar ber\u00fccksichtigt. Dadurch passt sich die Intervallbreite systematisch an die jeweils herrschende Unsicherheit an. Da der Ansatz informativere und kontextsensitivere Aussagen erm\u00f6glicht als traditionelle statische Verfahren, die allein auf vergangenen Prognosefehlern beruhen, erleichtert und verbessert er die Kommunikation der Prognoseergebnisse. Eine empirische Anwendung auf fr\u00fchere WIFO-Konjunkturprognosen belegt seinen Mehrwert.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Dieser Beitrag entwickelt eine Methode zur Bestimmung von Konfidenzintervallen f\u00fcr makro\u00f6konomische Prognosen, die quantitative Unsicherheitsma\u00dfe \u2013 etwa umfragebasierte Indikatoren, die Aktienmarktvolatilit\u00e4t und Kennzahlen zur wirtschaftspolitischen Unsicherheit \u2013 unmittelbar ber\u00fccksichtigt. Dadurch passt sich die Intervallbreite systematisch an die jeweils herrschende Unsicherheit an. Da der Ansatz informativere und kontextsensitivere Aussagen erm\u00f6glicht als traditionelle statische Verfahren, die allein auf vergangenen Prognosefehlern beruhen, erleichtert und verbessert er die Kommunikation der Prognoseergebnisse. Eine empirische Anwendung auf fr\u00fchere WIFO-Konjunkturprognosen belegt seinen Mehrwert.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Konfidenzintervalle<\\\/p><p>KW  - Prognosefehler<\\\/p><p>KW  - Unsicherheit<\\\/p><p>KW  - SUR<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>VL  - 98<\\\/p><p>SP  - 631<\\\/p><p>EP  - 637<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[\"Czaloun Astrid\"]","scientific_review":"[\"Url Thomas\"]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Uncertainty-dependent Confidence Intervals for WIFO Economic Outlooks - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/438202\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Uncertainty-dependent Confidence Intervals for WIFO Economic Outlooks\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/438202\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-28T08:41:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/438202\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/438202\\\/\",\"name\":\"Uncertainty-dependent Confidence Intervals for WIFO Economic Outlooks - 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