{"id":438202,"date":"2025-11-28T09:41:45","date_gmt":"2025-11-28T08:41:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/438202\/"},"modified":"2025-11-28T09:41:46","modified_gmt":"2025-11-28T08:41:46","slug":"uncertainty-dependent-confidence-intervals-for-wifo-economic-outlooks","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/438202\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainty-dependent Confidence Intervals for WIFO Economic Outlooks"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-438202","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"This paper proposes a methodology for constructing confidence intervals for macroeconomic forecasts that directly incorporate quantitative measures of uncertainty \u2013 such as survey-based indicators, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty. As a result, the interval width systematically adjusts to the prevailing uncertainty conditions. Since the approach enables more informative and context-sensitive statements than traditional, static methods that rely solely on past forecast errors, it facilitates and improves the communication of forecast results. An empirical application to past WIFO Economic Outlooks demonstrates its added value.","onlinedate":"2025-11-28 08:41:46","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20251128","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[\"C32\",\"C53\",\"C40\",\"E37\"]","related_publications":"[\"57607863-ab35-44ce-9b0f-3cdd4833be57\",\"4ce840bc-a738-4590-a675-88457ff88f1b\",\"c0d7d3d5-0a11-4f71-94f3-af06b55715bb\",\"f9efc91b-a123-4403-be19-fb2b115a3be4\",\"88df86f1-cc61-4442-9fac-529bdb1b2c30\"]","pdf":438204,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"98","monthly_report_pages":"631-637","monthly_report_pages_sort":"631","issue":"11","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3543,3641],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3543,\"personName\":\"Christian Glocker\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[\"Czaloun Astrid\"]","scientific_review":"[\"Url Thomas\"]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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