{"id":435038,"date":"2025-10-09T13:37:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T11:37:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/435038\/"},"modified":"2025-10-10T09:37:02","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T07:37:02","slug":"wifo-inflation-forecast-2025-26-from-october-2025","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/435038\/","title":{"rendered":"WIFO Inflation Forecast 2025-26 from October 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-435038","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"WIFO expects an inflation rate of +3.5 percent for 2025 (+0.6 percentage points compared to 2024) and +2.4 percent for 2026. Compared to the June 2025 forecast, this represents an upward revision of +0.6 percentage points for 2025, which is mainly due to the (significantly) higher realisations for the months of June to August. For 2026, the upward revision (+0.2 percentage points) is due to a carry-over effect from the higher rates of change in the second half of 2025 and from the already announced (federal government, City of Vienna) or still expected stronger price increases in the public sector (administered prices) by other public authorities. Core inflation (consumer price index excluding food, alcohol, tobacco and energy) will be slightly lower (+3.3 percent) than headline inflation due to the comparatively low price increases for industrial goods in 2025.","onlinedate":"2025-10-10 09:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20251010","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"8","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":435655,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"12","journal":"WIFO Research Briefs","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":"2025-10-10 09:00:00","types":[44390],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3530],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3530,\"personName\":\"Josef Baumgartner\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Baumgartner, J.<\\\/span> (2025). <span>WIFO-Inflationsprognose 2025\\\/26 vom Oktober 2025<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Research Briefs<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (12).<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Baumgartner J<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>WIFO-Inflationsprognose 2025\\\/26 vom Oktober 2025<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Research Briefs<\\\/span>. 2025 Oct 10;(12).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{cbc1a2eeba004dd9b1d18585a5bfb9ae,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"WIFO-Inflationsprognose 2025\\\/26 vom Oktober 2025\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Das WIFO erwartet f{\\\\\\\"u}r 2025 eine Inflationsrate von +3,5\\\\% (+0,6 Prozentpunkte gegen{\\\\\\\"u}ber 2024) und f{\\\\\\\"u}r 2026 von +2,4\\\\%. Im Vergleich zur Prognose vom Juni 2025 ergibt sich eine Aufw{\\\\\\\"a}rtsrevision von +0,6 Prozentpunkten f{\\\\\\\"u}r 2025, die vor allem auf die (deutlich) h{\\\\\\\"o}heren Realisierungen f{\\\\\\\"u}r die Monate Juni bis August zur{\\\\\\\"u}ckzuf{\\\\\\\"u}hren ist. F{\\\\\\\"u}r 2026 ergibt sich die Aufw{\\\\\\\"a}rtsrevision (+0,2 Prozentpunkte) durch einen {\\\\\\\"U}berhangeffekt aus den h{\\\\\\\"o}heren Ver{\\\\\\\"a}nderungsraten im 2. Halbjahr 2025 und aus den bereits angek{\\\\\\\"u}ndigten (Bund, Stadt Wien) bzw. von anderen {\\\\\\\"o}ffentlichen Gebietsk{\\\\\\\"o}rperschaften noch erwarteten st{\\\\\\\"a}rkeren Preissteigerungen im Bereich der {\\\\\\\"o}ffentlichen Hand (administrierte Preise). Die Kerninflation (Verbraucherpreisindex ohne Lebensmittel, Alkohol, Tabak und Energie) f{\\\\\\\"a}llt aufgrund der vergleichsweise geringen Preisanstiege bei industriell hergestellten G{\\\\\\\"u}tern 2025 etwas niedriger aus (+3,3\\\\%) als die Headline-Inflation.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Josef Baumgartner\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2025\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = oct,<\\\/div><div>  day      = \\\"10\\\",<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Research Briefs\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - WIFO-Inflationsprognose 2025\\\/26 vom Oktober 2025<\\\/p><p>AU  - Baumgartner, Josef<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2025\\\/10\\\/10<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2025\\\/10\\\/10<\\\/p><p>N2  - Das WIFO erwartet f\u00fcr 2025 eine Inflationsrate von +3,5% (+0,6 Prozentpunkte gegen\u00fcber 2024) und f\u00fcr 2026 von +2,4%. Im Vergleich zur Prognose vom Juni 2025 ergibt sich eine Aufw\u00e4rtsrevision von +0,6 Prozentpunkten f\u00fcr 2025, die vor allem auf die (deutlich) h\u00f6heren Realisierungen f\u00fcr die Monate Juni bis August zur\u00fcckzuf\u00fchren ist. F\u00fcr 2026 ergibt sich die Aufw\u00e4rtsrevision (+0,2 Prozentpunkte) durch einen \u00dcberhangeffekt aus den h\u00f6heren Ver\u00e4nderungsraten im 2. Halbjahr 2025 und aus den bereits angek\u00fcndigten (Bund, Stadt Wien) bzw. von anderen \u00f6ffentlichen Gebietsk\u00f6rperschaften noch erwarteten st\u00e4rkeren Preissteigerungen im Bereich der \u00f6ffentlichen Hand (administrierte Preise). Die Kerninflation (Verbraucherpreisindex ohne Lebensmittel, Alkohol, Tabak und Energie) f\u00e4llt aufgrund der vergleichsweise geringen Preisanstiege bei industriell hergestellten G\u00fctern 2025 etwas niedriger aus (+3,3%) als die Headline-Inflation.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Das WIFO erwartet f\u00fcr 2025 eine Inflationsrate von +3,5% (+0,6 Prozentpunkte gegen\u00fcber 2024) und f\u00fcr 2026 von +2,4%. Im Vergleich zur Prognose vom Juni 2025 ergibt sich eine Aufw\u00e4rtsrevision von +0,6 Prozentpunkten f\u00fcr 2025, die vor allem auf die (deutlich) h\u00f6heren Realisierungen f\u00fcr die Monate Juni bis August zur\u00fcckzuf\u00fchren ist. F\u00fcr 2026 ergibt sich die Aufw\u00e4rtsrevision (+0,2 Prozentpunkte) durch einen \u00dcberhangeffekt aus den h\u00f6heren Ver\u00e4nderungsraten im 2. Halbjahr 2025 und aus den bereits angek\u00fcndigten (Bund, Stadt Wien) bzw. von anderen \u00f6ffentlichen Gebietsk\u00f6rperschaften noch erwarteten st\u00e4rkeren Preissteigerungen im Bereich der \u00f6ffentlichen Hand (administrierte Preise). Die Kerninflation (Verbraucherpreisindex ohne Lebensmittel, Alkohol, Tabak und Energie) f\u00e4llt aufgrund der vergleichsweise geringen Preisanstiege bei industriell hergestellten G\u00fctern 2025 etwas niedriger aus (+3,3%) als die Headline-Inflation.<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Research Briefs<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Research Briefs<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[\"Glauninger Ursula\"]","scientific_review":"[\"Schiman-Vukan Stefan\"]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>WIFO Inflation Forecast 2025-26 from October 2025 - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/435038\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"WIFO Inflation Forecast 2025-26 from October 2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/435038\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-10T07:37:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/435038\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/435038\\\/\",\"name\":\"WIFO Inflation Forecast 2025-26 from October 2025 - 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