{"id":430284,"date":"2025-09-08T14:37:09","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T12:37:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/430284\/"},"modified":"2025-09-08T15:36:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T13:36:49","slug":"enhancing-macroeconomic-forecasts-with-uncertainty-informed-intervals","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/430284\/","title":{"rendered":"Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasts with Uncertainty-Informed Intervals"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-430284","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"We propose a methodology for constructing confidence intervals for macroeconomic forecasts that directly incorporate quantitative measures of uncertainty \u2013 such as survey-based indicators, stock market volatility, and policy uncertainty. By allowing the width of confidence intervals to vary systematically with prevailing uncertainty conditions, this approach yields more informative and context-sensitive intervals than traditional, static methods relying solely on past forecast errors. An empirical application using Austrian data demonstrates that uncertainty measures significantly explain the variation in forecast errors, underscoring the value of integrating these indicators for improved communication and analytical robustness of economic projections.","onlinedate":"2025-09-08 12:37:11","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20250908","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"32","keywords":"[\"Confidence intervals\",\"Forecast errors\",\"Uncertainty\",\"SUR\"]","jelcodes":"[\"C32\",\"C53\",\"C40\",\"E37\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":430289,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"710","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44410],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3543,3641],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3543,\"personName\":\"Christian Glocker\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3641,\"personName\":\"Serguei Kaniovski\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Glocker, C.<\\\/span><span>, &amp; Kaniovski, S.<\\\/span> (2025). <span>Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasts with Uncertainty-Informed Intervals<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (710).<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Glocker C<\\\/span><span>, Kaniovski S<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasts with Uncertainty-Informed Intervals<\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2025 Sept 8;(710).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{6e91d53d56084b169c7ebad5eeb4875d,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasts with Uncertainty-Informed Intervals\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"We propose a methodology for constructing confidence intervals for macroeconomic forecasts that directly incorporate quantitative measures of uncertainty \u2013 such as survey-based indicators, stock market volatility, and policy uncertainty. By allowing the width of confidence intervals to vary systematically with prevailing uncertainty conditions, this approach yields more informative and context-sensitive intervals than traditional, static methods relying solely on past forecast errors. An empirical application using Austrian data demonstrates that uncertainty measures significantly explain the variation in forecast errors, underscoring the value of integrating these indicators for improved communication and analytical robustness of economic projections.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Confidence intervals, Forecast errors, Uncertainty, SUR\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Christian Glocker and Serguei Kaniovski\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2025\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = sep,<\\\/div><div>  day      = \\\"8\\\",<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasts with Uncertainty-Informed Intervals<\\\/p><p>AU  - Glocker, Christian<\\\/p><p>AU  - Kaniovski, Serguei<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2025\\\/9\\\/8<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2025\\\/9\\\/8<\\\/p><p>N2  - We propose a methodology for constructing confidence intervals for macroeconomic forecasts that directly incorporate quantitative measures of uncertainty \u2013 such as survey-based indicators, stock market volatility, and policy uncertainty. By allowing the width of confidence intervals to vary systematically with prevailing uncertainty conditions, this approach yields more informative and context-sensitive intervals than traditional, static methods relying solely on past forecast errors. An empirical application using Austrian data demonstrates that uncertainty measures significantly explain the variation in forecast errors, underscoring the value of integrating these indicators for improved communication and analytical robustness of economic projections.<\\\/p><p>AB  - We propose a methodology for constructing confidence intervals for macroeconomic forecasts that directly incorporate quantitative measures of uncertainty \u2013 such as survey-based indicators, stock market volatility, and policy uncertainty. By allowing the width of confidence intervals to vary systematically with prevailing uncertainty conditions, this approach yields more informative and context-sensitive intervals than traditional, static methods relying solely on past forecast errors. An empirical application using Austrian data demonstrates that uncertainty measures significantly explain the variation in forecast errors, underscoring the value of integrating these indicators for improved communication and analytical robustness of economic projections.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Confidence intervals<\\\/p><p>KW  - Forecast errors<\\\/p><p>KW  - Uncertainty<\\\/p><p>KW  - SUR<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[\"Czaloun Astrid\"]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasts with Uncertainty-Informed Intervals - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/430284\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasts with Uncertainty-Informed Intervals\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/430284\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-08T13:36:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/430284\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/430284\\\/\",\"name\":\"Enhancing Macroeconomic Forecasts with Uncertainty-Informed Intervals - 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