{"id":427731,"date":"2025-07-01T16:16:06","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T14:16:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/427731\/"},"modified":"2025-07-24T15:38:17","modified_gmt":"2025-07-24T13:38:17","slug":"the-quality-of-economic-forecasts-in-times-of-extraordinary-crises","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/427731\/","title":{"rendered":"The Quality of Economic Forecasts in Times of Extraordinary Crises"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-427731","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"The unpredictable onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant downward revisions of economic forecasts for 2020 worldwide. During the pandemic, the health policy measures announced at short notice hampered forecasting activities. The following recovery was interrupted by Russia's invasion of the Ukraine, which led to sharp price increases in the EU and the implementation of economic sanctions. At the turn of 2022-23, Austria entered its longest recession since the foundation of the Second Republic. During this period, signs of improvement appeared several times, which turned out to be short-lived. This paper examines the extent of revisions to forecasts for Austrian GDP by national (WIFO, IHS, OeNB) and international forecasting institutions (European Commission, OECD, and IMF) for the period from 2020 to 2024. For comparison purposes, it examines the accuracy of forecasts for German economic growth by domestic forecasting institutes and international organisations, as well as the accuracy of forecasts for real GDP in the euro area by international organisations.","onlinedate":"2025-07-01 14:16:10","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20250701","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[\"E37\",\"E23\"]","related_publications":"[\"cabedf89-33cd-43ce-891d-980b4872c512\",\"9270810d-3606-4fb5-8639-071d71c4c2e7\",\"82e0f1d3-c1f7-408d-b4c2-aa76914d4693\",\"1fc3ac99-5f99-4ad0-b55e-44a52c6dddf2\"]","pdf":429633,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"98","monthly_report_pages":"331-341","monthly_report_pages_sort":"331","issue":"6","journal":"WIFO-Monatsberichte","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44312],"research_groups":[3500],"collaboration":"","persons":[3837],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3837,\"personName\":\"Marcus Scheiblecker\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"
Scheiblecker, M.<\\\/span> (2025). Zur G\u00fcte von Konjunkturprognosen in Zeiten au\u00dfergew\u00f6hnlicher Krisen<\\\/span>. WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/em><\\\/span>, 98<\\\/em>(6), 331-341.<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"
Scheiblecker M<\\\/span>. Zur G\u00fcte von Konjunkturprognosen in Zeiten au\u00dfergew\u00f6hnlicher Krisen<\\\/span><\\\/span>. WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/span>. 2025 Jul 1;98(6):331-341.<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"
@misc{135ad1d0ab384906a154e0c8d73b7c67,<\\\/div>
title = \\\"Zur G{\\\\\\\"u}te von Konjunkturprognosen in Zeiten au{\\\\ss}ergew{\\\\\\\"o}hnlicher Krisen\\\",<\\\/div>
abstract = \\\"Der pl{\\\\\\\"o}tzliche Ausbruch der COVID-19-Pandemie hatte international deutliche Abw{\\\\\\\"a}rtsrevisionen der Wirtschaftsprognosen f{\\\\\\\"u}r das Jahr 2020 zur Folge. W{\\\\\\\"a}hrend der Pandemie erschwerten die kurzfristig verlautbarten gesundheitspolitischen Ma{\\\\ss}nahmen die Prognoset{\\\\\\\"a}tigkeit. Die anschlie{\\\\ss}ende Konjunkturerholung wurde durch den {\\\\\\\"U}berfall Russlands auf die Ukraine, der zu einem scharfen Preisanstieg in der EU und zu wirtschaftlichen Sanktionen f{\\\\\\\"u}hrte, j{\\\\\\\"a}h unterbrochen. Zum Jahreswechsel 2022\\\/23 setzte in {\\\\\\\"O}sterreich die l{\\\\\\\"a}ngste Rezession seit Gr{\\\\\\\"u}ndung der Zweiten Republik ein. In deren Verlauf zeigten sich mehrmals Besserungstendenzen, die aber wieder verebbten. Dieser Beitrag untersucht das Revisionsausma{\\\\ss} in den Prognosen des {\\\\\\\"o}sterreichischen BIP der nationalen (WIFO, IHS, OeNB) und internationalen Prognoseinstitutionen (Europ{\\\\\\\"a}ische Kommission, OECD und IWF) f{\\\\\\\"u}r den Zeitraum 2020 bis 2024. Zu Vergleichszwecken wird die G{\\\\\\\"u}te von Prognosen des deutschen Wirtschaftswachstums sowie des realen BIP im Euro-Raum betrachtet, die von deutschen Instituten bzw. internationalen Organisationen erstellt werden.\\\",<\\\/div>
keywords = \\\"Prognoseevaluierung\\\",<\\\/div>
author = \\\"Marcus Scheiblecker\\\",<\\\/div>
year = \\\"2025\\\",<\\\/div>
month = jul,<\\\/div>
day = \\\"1\\\",<\\\/div>
language = \\\"Deutsch\\\",<\\\/div>
volume = \\\"98\\\",<\\\/div>
pages = \\\"331--341\\\",<\\\/div>
journal = \\\"WIFO-Monatsberichte\\\",<\\\/div>

}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"

TY - GEN<\\\/p>

T1 - Zur G\u00fcte von Konjunkturprognosen in Zeiten au\u00dfergew\u00f6hnlicher Krisen<\\\/p>

AU - Scheiblecker, Marcus<\\\/p>

PY - 2025\\\/7\\\/1<\\\/p>

Y1 - 2025\\\/7\\\/1<\\\/p>

N2 - Der pl\u00f6tzliche Ausbruch der COVID-19-Pandemie hatte international deutliche Abw\u00e4rtsrevisionen der Wirtschaftsprognosen f\u00fcr das Jahr 2020 zur Folge. W\u00e4hrend der Pandemie erschwerten die kurzfristig verlautbarten gesundheitspolitischen Ma\u00dfnahmen die Prognoset\u00e4tigkeit. Die anschlie\u00dfende Konjunkturerholung wurde durch den \u00dcberfall Russlands auf die Ukraine, der zu einem scharfen Preisanstieg in der EU und zu wirtschaftlichen Sanktionen f\u00fchrte, j\u00e4h unterbrochen. Zum Jahreswechsel 2022\\\/23 setzte in \u00d6sterreich die l\u00e4ngste Rezession seit Gr\u00fcndung der Zweiten Republik ein. In deren Verlauf zeigten sich mehrmals Besserungstendenzen, die aber wieder verebbten. Dieser Beitrag untersucht das Revisionsausma\u00df in den Prognosen des \u00f6sterreichischen BIP der nationalen (WIFO, IHS, OeNB) und internationalen Prognoseinstitutionen (Europ\u00e4ische Kommission, OECD und IWF) f\u00fcr den Zeitraum 2020 bis 2024. Zu Vergleichszwecken wird die G\u00fcte von Prognosen des deutschen Wirtschaftswachstums sowie des realen BIP im Euro-Raum betrachtet, die von deutschen Instituten bzw. internationalen Organisationen erstellt werden.<\\\/p>

AB - Der pl\u00f6tzliche Ausbruch der COVID-19-Pandemie hatte international deutliche Abw\u00e4rtsrevisionen der Wirtschaftsprognosen f\u00fcr das Jahr 2020 zur Folge. W\u00e4hrend der Pandemie erschwerten die kurzfristig verlautbarten gesundheitspolitischen Ma\u00dfnahmen die Prognoset\u00e4tigkeit. Die anschlie\u00dfende Konjunkturerholung wurde durch den \u00dcberfall Russlands auf die Ukraine, der zu einem scharfen Preisanstieg in der EU und zu wirtschaftlichen Sanktionen f\u00fchrte, j\u00e4h unterbrochen. Zum Jahreswechsel 2022\\\/23 setzte in \u00d6sterreich die l\u00e4ngste Rezession seit Gr\u00fcndung der Zweiten Republik ein. In deren Verlauf zeigten sich mehrmals Besserungstendenzen, die aber wieder verebbten. Dieser Beitrag untersucht das Revisionsausma\u00df in den Prognosen des \u00f6sterreichischen BIP der nationalen (WIFO, IHS, OeNB) und internationalen Prognoseinstitutionen (Europ\u00e4ische Kommission, OECD und IWF) f\u00fcr den Zeitraum 2020 bis 2024. Zu Vergleichszwecken wird die G\u00fcte von Prognosen des deutschen Wirtschaftswachstums sowie des realen BIP im Euro-Raum betrachtet, die von deutschen Instituten bzw. internationalen Organisationen erstellt werden.<\\\/p>

KW - Prognoseevaluierung<\\\/p>

M3 - WIFO-Schriftenreihen<\\\/p>

VL - 98<\\\/p>

SP - 331<\\\/p>

EP - 341<\\\/p>

JO - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p>

JF - WIFO-Monatsberichte<\\\/p>

ER - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[\"Czaloun Astrid\"]","scientific_review":"[\"Kaniovski Serguei\"]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"\nThe Quality of Economic Forecasts in Times of Extraordinary Crises - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/427731\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Quality of Economic Forecasts in Times of Extraordinary Crises\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/427731\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-24T13:38:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/427731\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.wifo.ac.at\\\/en\\\/publication\\\/427731\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Quality of Economic Forecasts in Times of Extraordinary Crises - 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