{"id":426487,"date":"2025-05-27T10:38:17","date_gmt":"2025-05-27T08:38:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/426487\/"},"modified":"2025-05-27T12:06:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T10:06:09","slug":"demographic-change-and-the-future-of-austrias-long-term-care-allowance-a-dynamic-microsimulation-study","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/","title":{"rendered":"Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-426487","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Europe's demographic shift is putting increasing pressure on long-term care (LTC) systems and raising concerns about the sustainability of LTC financing. This paper analyses Austria's LTC system, particularly its universal long-term care allowance (LTCA), and uses a dynamic microsimulation model to project LTCA expenditure under four scenarios up to the year 2080. Using pooled data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we estimate care needs and prevalence rates across all seven care allowance levels. This enables us to project both public spending and individual lifetime costs, disaggregated by sex and education. Although total LTCA expenditure is projected to rise due to population ageing, scenario comparisons show that compositional shifts \u2013 such as higher educational attainment, which is linked to lower care needs, and gains in healthy life expectancy accompanying mortality im- provements \u2013 can significantly mitigate cost growth. The projected total expenditure increases range from 29 percent in a scenario where increasing life expectancy \u2013 as assumed in official population projections \u2013 is neglected, to 185 percent in a scenario accounting for rising life expectancy but no future health gains. The findings also highlight the impact of longevity and education on the distribution of individual lifetime costs. Beyond its policy implications for LTC planning, the study demonstrates the advantages of dynamic microsimulation in capturing individual-level heterogeneity, offering a significant improvement on traditional macrosimulation approaches.","onlinedate":"2025-05-27 08:38:19","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20250527","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"41","keywords":"[]","jelcodes":"[]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":426529,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"705","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44410],"research_groups":[3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[4401,3614,218787,3749,420101,5030],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":4401,\"personName\":\"Ulrike Famira-M\u00fchlberger\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3614,\"personName\":\"Thomas Horvath\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":218787,\"personName\":\"Thomas Leoni\",\"organisationNames\":[\"FH Wiener Neustadt\"]},{\"personId\":3749,\"personName\":\"Martin Spielauer\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":420101,\"personName\":\"Viktoria Szenkur\u00f6k\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":5030,\"personName\":\"Philipp Warum\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[\"Grandner Lydia\"]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Demographic Change and the Future of Austria&#039;s Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study - WIFO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Demographic Change and the Future of Austria&#039;s Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WIFO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-27T10:06:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@WIFOat\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/\",\"name\":\"Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study - WIFO\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-05-27T08:38:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-05-27T10:06:09+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Startseite\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"alternateName\":\"WIFO\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg\",\"width\":2000,\"height\":429,\"caption\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat\",\"https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/\",\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at\"],\"description\":\"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.\",\"email\":\"office@wifo.ac.at\",\"telephone\":\"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0\",\"legalName\":\"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung\",\"foundingDate\":\"1927-01-02\",\"numberOfEmployees\":{\"@type\":\"QuantitativeValue\",\"minValue\":\"51\",\"maxValue\":\"200\"},\"publishingPrinciples\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/\",\"ownershipFundingInfo\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/\",\"actionableFeedbackPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/\",\"correctionsPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/\",\"ethicsPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/\",\"diversityPolicy\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/\",\"diversityStaffingReport\":\"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study - WIFO","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study","og_url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/","og_site_name":"WIFO","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","article_modified_time":"2025-05-27T10:06:09+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1920,"height":1280,"url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO-Gebaeude-FotoAlexanderMueller-www.alexandermueller.at-IMG_6326-Bearbeitet-1.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@WIFOat","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/","name":"Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study - WIFO","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-05-27T08:38:17+00:00","dateModified":"2025-05-27T10:06:09+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426487\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Startseite","item":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Demographic Change and the Future of Austria's Long-Term Care Allowance: A Dynamic Microsimulation Study"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"WIFO","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#organization","name":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","alternateName":"WIFO","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/WIFO_kurz_rechts-2-1920x412.jpg","width":2000,"height":429,"caption":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/WIFOat\/","https:\/\/x.com\/WIFOat","https:\/\/linkedin.com\/company\/wifoat\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@WIFO_at"],"description":"Das WIFO, 1927 von Friedrich August von Hayek und Ludwig von Mises zur Konjunkturanalyse gegr\u00fcndet, ist heute das f\u00fchrende Institut f\u00fcr angewandte empirische Wirtschaftsforschung in \u00d6sterreich mit starkem Engagement auf europ\u00e4ischer Ebene.","email":"office@wifo.ac.at","telephone":"+43 1 798 26 01 \u2013 0","legalName":"\u00d6sterreichisches Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung","foundingDate":"1927-01-02","numberOfEmployees":{"@type":"QuantitativeValue","minValue":"51","maxValue":"200"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/mission-und-strategie\/","ownershipFundingInfo":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/organisation\/","actionableFeedbackPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/aktuelles\/presse\/","correctionsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/kontakt\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/evidenzbasierung-transparenz-und-unabhaengigkeit\/","diversityPolicy":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/","diversityStaffingReport":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/institut\/gleichstellung\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/426487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publication"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/426487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":426488,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication\/426487\/revisions\/426488"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/5030"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/420101"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/3749"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/external_person\/218787"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/3614"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/person\/4401"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research_group\/3510"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_type\/44410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=426487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}