{"id":426202,"date":"2025-05-19T11:37:50","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T09:37:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/426202\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T21:36:59","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T19:36:59","slug":"armutsgefaehrdung-und-einkommenswachstum-paradoxe-zusammenhaenge-im-prognosekontext","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/426202\/","title":{"rendered":"Armutsgef\u00e4hrdung und Einkommenswachstum: paradoxe Zusammenh\u00e4nge im Prognosekontext"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-426202","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"","text":"Die Armutsgef\u00e4hrdungsquote, ein zentraler Indikator zur Analyse der Einkommensverteilung, gewinnt im Kontext wirtschaftlicher Prognosen zunehmend an Bedeutung. Die j\u00fcngsten Krisen, darunter die COVID-19-Pandemie und der Ukraine-Krieg, sowie staatliche Hilfsma\u00dfnahmen haben die Einkommensdynamik der Haushalte erheblich beeinflusst. Paradoxerweise kann die Armutsgef\u00e4hrdungsquote in wirtschaftlichen Aufschwungphasen steigen und in Abschw\u00fcngen sinken. Simulationen f\u00fcr \u00d6sterreich zeigen, dass gleichm\u00e4\u00dfige, proportionale Lohnsteigerungen unter sonst gleichen Bedingungen die Armutsgef\u00e4hrdungsquote tendenziell erh\u00f6hen, w\u00e4hrend proportionale Pensionserh\u00f6hungen diese leicht senken. Diese Effekte werden wesentlich durch die Zusammensetzung der Haushaltseinkommen entlang der Einkommensverteilung beeinflusst, die wiederum stark von demografischen Haushaltsmerkmalen und der Erwerbsbeteiligung abh\u00e4ngen.","onlinedate":"2025-04-15 02:00:00","lang":"German","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20250415","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"","keywords":"[\"Poverty\",\"Income distribution\",\"Forecasting\",\"Microsimulation\",\"Nowcasting\"]","jelcodes":"[\"D31\",\"E17\",\"I32\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":null,"zip":null,"link":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.59288\/wug511.277","monthly_report":false,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"51","monthly_report_pages":"17-41","monthly_report_pages_sort":"17","issue":"1","journal":"Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":true,"embargo_date":null,"types":[83083],"research_groups":[3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[3717,4245],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":3717,\"personName\":\"Marian Fink\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":4245,\"personName\":\"Silvia Rocha-Akis\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[41261],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.5 (Yoast SEO v26.5) - 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