{"id":421447,"date":"2025-01-31T12:59:51","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T11:59:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/publication\/421447\/"},"modified":"2025-01-31T14:22:11","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T13:22:11","slug":"challenges-in-long-term-care-modelling-and-quantifying-future-care-needs-arrangements-and-gaps-in-ageing-low-fertility-societies","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/www.wifo.ac.at\/en\/publication\/421447\/","title":{"rendered":"Challenges in Long-term Care: Modelling and Quantifying Future Care Needs, Arrangements and Gaps in Ageing, Low-fertility Societies"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-421447","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":{"subtitle":"A Novel Comparative Approach Applied in Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy","text":"Population ageing will reshape economies around the world, with particular implications for long-term care (LTC) systems. As a result of past fertility decline, reflected in high levels of childlessness and smaller family networks, the growing demand for care is confronted by a declining supply of informal care. This paper presents a novel quantitative framework for cross-country comparative analysis and projections of the long-term care sector. The central innovation of this framework is the standardised assessment of care needs in hours, complemented by the modelling of care arrangements, distinguishing between nursing homes, formal home care, informal care provided by a partner, informal care provided by others and care gaps. Modelling at the individual level requires microsimulation for projections that simultaneously consider individual-level characteristics, socio-demographic dynamics and institutional factors, and scenarios such as the role and expansion paths of formal care services. Our work builds on and extends the comparative microsimulation model microWELT, which uses Eurostat population projections while adding key characteristics such as educational differences in fertility, mortality, partnerships and family size. We demonstrate the approach using projections for Austria and Italy. In Austria, the total demand for long-term care is projected to almost double by 2070, while in Italy, where the ageing process is more advanced, the total increase is much lower at around 44 percent. However, in Italy, due to lower fertility and greater reliance on informal care, most of the increased demand would remain unmet under current informal care provision patterns, suggesting a potential care gap larger than that projected for Austria.","onlinedate":"2025-01-31 11:59:52","lang":"English","publication_series":"","publication_date":"20250131","publication_date_year":"","publication_date_full":true,"publication_num_pages":"64","keywords":"[\"Population ageing\",\"Long-term care\",\"Care gap\",\"Projections\",\"Dynamic microsimulation\"]","jelcodes":"[\"C53\",\"I11\",\"J14\"]","related_publications":"[]","pdf":421470,"zip":null,"link":"","monthly_report":true,"monthly_report_main":false,"monthly_report_volume":"","monthly_report_pages":"","monthly_report_pages_sort":"0","issue":"698","journal":"WIFO Working Papers","publisher":"","invisible":false,"external":false,"embargo_date":null,"types":[44410],"research_groups":[3510],"collaboration":"","persons":[5030,421466,4401,3614,218787,3749],"persons_data":"[{\"personId\":5030,\"personName\":\"Philipp Warum\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":421466,\"personName\":\"Fabrizio Culotta\",\"organisationNames\":[\"UNIMIB\"]},{\"personId\":4401,\"personName\":\"Ulrike Famira-M\u00fchlberger\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":3614,\"personName\":\"Thomas Horvath\",\"organisationNames\":[]},{\"personId\":218787,\"personName\":\"Thomas Leoni\",\"organisationNames\":[\"FH Wiener Neustadt\"]},{\"personId\":3749,\"personName\":\"Martin Spielauer\",\"organisationNames\":[]}]","clients":[],"subclients":[],"partners":[],"topics":[],"host_publication_title":"","host_publication_subtitle":"","place_of_publication":"","host_publication_editors":"[]","type_description":"","output_media":"","chapter":"","article_number":"","citations":"{\"apa\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_apa rendering_contributiontoperiodical_apa\\\"><span>Warum, P.<\\\/span>, Culotta, F.<span>, Famira-M\u00fchlberger, U.<\\\/span><span>, Horvath, T.<\\\/span>, Leoni, T.<span>, &amp; Spielauer, M.<\\\/span> (2025). <span>Challenges in Long-term Care: Modelling and Quantifying Future Care Needs, Arrangements and Gaps in Ageing, Low-fertility Societies: A Novel Comparative Approach Applied in Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy<\\\/span>. <span><em>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/em><\\\/span>, (698).<\\\/div>\",\"vancouver\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_vancouver rendering_contributiontoperiodical_vancouver\\\"><span>Warum P<\\\/span>, Culotta F<span>, Famira-M\u00fchlberger U<\\\/span><span>, Horvath T<\\\/span>, Leoni T<span>, Spielauer M<\\\/span>. <span class=\\\"title\\\"><span>Challenges in Long-term Care: Modelling and Quantifying Future Care Needs, Arrangements and Gaps in Ageing, Low-fertility Societies: <span class=\\\"subtitle\\\">A Novel Comparative Approach Applied in Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy<\\\/span><\\\/span><\\\/span>. <span>WIFO Working Papers<\\\/span>. 2025 Jan 31;(698).<\\\/div>\",\"bibtex\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_bibtex rendering_contributiontoperiodical_bibtex\\\"><div>@misc{10cac4e542594ebd8100b7ac51847085,<\\\/div><div>  title    = \\\"Challenges in Long-term Care: Modelling and Quantifying Future Care Needs, Arrangements and Gaps in Ageing, Low-fertility Societies: A Novel Comparative Approach Applied in Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy\\\",<\\\/div><div>  abstract = \\\"Population ageing will reshape economies around the world, with particular implications for long-term care (LTC) systems. As a result of past fertility decline, reflected in high levels of childlessness and smaller family networks, the growing demand for care is confronted by a declining supply of informal care. This paper presents a novel quantitative framework for cross-country comparative analysis and projections of the long-term care sector. The central innovation of this framework is the standardised assessment of care needs in hours, complemented by the modelling of care arrangements, distinguishing between nursing homes, formal home care, informal care provided by a partner, informal care provided by others and care gaps. Modelling at the individual level requires microsimulation for projections that simultaneously consider individual-level characteristics, socio-demographic dynamics and institutional factors, and scenarios such as the role and expansion paths of formal care services. Our work builds on and extends the comparative microsimulation model microWELT, which uses Eurostat population projections while adding key characteristics such as educational differences in fertility, mortality, partnerships and family size. We demonstrate the approach using projections for Austria and Italy. In Austria, the total demand for long-term care is projected to almost double by 2070, while in Italy, where the ageing process is more advanced, the total increase is much lower at around 44 percent. However, in Italy, due to lower fertility and greater reliance on informal care, most of the increased demand would remain unmet under current informal care provision patterns, suggesting a potential care gap larger than that projected for Austria.\\\",<\\\/div><div>  keywords = \\\"Population ageing, Long-term care, Care gap, Projections, Dynamic microsimulation\\\",<\\\/div><div>  author   = \\\"Philipp Warum and Fabrizio Culotta and Ulrike Famira-M{\\\\\\\"u}hlberger and Thomas Horvath and Thomas Leoni and Martin Spielauer\\\",<\\\/div><div>  year     = \\\"2025\\\",<\\\/div><div>  month    = jan,<\\\/div><div>  day      = \\\"31\\\",<\\\/div><div>  language = \\\"English\\\",<\\\/div><div>  journal  = \\\"WIFO Working Papers\\\",<\\\/div><p>}<\\\/p><\\\/div>\",\"ris\":\"<div class=\\\"rendering rendering_researchoutput  rendering_researchoutput_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical rendering_ris rendering_contributiontoperiodical_ris\\\"><p>TY  - GEN<\\\/p><p>T1  - Challenges in Long-term Care: Modelling and Quantifying Future Care Needs, Arrangements and Gaps in Ageing, Low-fertility Societies<\\\/p><p>T2  - A Novel Comparative Approach Applied in Microsimulation Projections for Austria and Italy<\\\/p><p>AU  - Warum, Philipp<\\\/p><p>AU  - Culotta, Fabrizio<\\\/p><p>AU  - Famira-M\u00fchlberger, Ulrike<\\\/p><p>AU  - Horvath, Thomas<\\\/p><p>AU  - Leoni, Thomas<\\\/p><p>AU  - Spielauer, Martin<\\\/p><p>PY  - 2025\\\/1\\\/31<\\\/p><p>Y1  - 2025\\\/1\\\/31<\\\/p><p>N2  - Population ageing will reshape economies around the world, with particular implications for long-term care (LTC) systems. As a result of past fertility decline, reflected in high levels of childlessness and smaller family networks, the growing demand for care is confronted by a declining supply of informal care. This paper presents a novel quantitative framework for cross-country comparative analysis and projections of the long-term care sector. The central innovation of this framework is the standardised assessment of care needs in hours, complemented by the modelling of care arrangements, distinguishing between nursing homes, formal home care, informal care provided by a partner, informal care provided by others and care gaps. Modelling at the individual level requires microsimulation for projections that simultaneously consider individual-level characteristics, socio-demographic dynamics and institutional factors, and scenarios such as the role and expansion paths of formal care services. Our work builds on and extends the comparative microsimulation model microWELT, which uses Eurostat population projections while adding key characteristics such as educational differences in fertility, mortality, partnerships and family size. We demonstrate the approach using projections for Austria and Italy. In Austria, the total demand for long-term care is projected to almost double by 2070, while in Italy, where the ageing process is more advanced, the total increase is much lower at around 44 percent. However, in Italy, due to lower fertility and greater reliance on informal care, most of the increased demand would remain unmet under current informal care provision patterns, suggesting a potential care gap larger than that projected for Austria.<\\\/p><p>AB  - Population ageing will reshape economies around the world, with particular implications for long-term care (LTC) systems. As a result of past fertility decline, reflected in high levels of childlessness and smaller family networks, the growing demand for care is confronted by a declining supply of informal care. This paper presents a novel quantitative framework for cross-country comparative analysis and projections of the long-term care sector. The central innovation of this framework is the standardised assessment of care needs in hours, complemented by the modelling of care arrangements, distinguishing between nursing homes, formal home care, informal care provided by a partner, informal care provided by others and care gaps. Modelling at the individual level requires microsimulation for projections that simultaneously consider individual-level characteristics, socio-demographic dynamics and institutional factors, and scenarios such as the role and expansion paths of formal care services. Our work builds on and extends the comparative microsimulation model microWELT, which uses Eurostat population projections while adding key characteristics such as educational differences in fertility, mortality, partnerships and family size. We demonstrate the approach using projections for Austria and Italy. In Austria, the total demand for long-term care is projected to almost double by 2070, while in Italy, where the ageing process is more advanced, the total increase is much lower at around 44 percent. However, in Italy, due to lower fertility and greater reliance on informal care, most of the increased demand would remain unmet under current informal care provision patterns, suggesting a potential care gap larger than that projected for Austria.<\\\/p><p>KW  - Population ageing<\\\/p><p>KW  - Long-term care<\\\/p><p>KW  - Care gap<\\\/p><p>KW  - Projections<\\\/p><p>KW  - Dynamic microsimulation<\\\/p><p>M3  - WIFO series<\\\/p><p>JO  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>JF  - WIFO Working Papers<\\\/p><p>ER  - <\\\/p><\\\/div>\"}","scientific_assistance":"[]","scientific_review":"[]","version":"","release_date":null,"expiration_date":null,"surveyor":"","research_assistance":"","edv":"","additional_info_de":"","additional_info_en":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Challenges in Long-term Care: Modelling and Quantifying Future Care Needs, Arrangements and Gaps in Ageing, Low-fertility Societies - 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